"There's gotta be more pitching out there somewhere!"
As hard as it might be to believe, the Mets used 42 guys on the mound in 2021, 4 of whom (to be transparent) were position players.
Drop them out, and it still leaves an astounding 38 pitchers used by El Metsos in 2021.
How does a team plan for using 38 pitchers? It can't.
It was easier in the simpler times of 1969 and 1986, when both teams used just 15 pitchers.
I thought the Mets had a good amount of pitching quality and quantity going into 2021, had built up adequate depth, but a huge volume of injuries blew those preparations to smithereens. Nonetheless, the team pitching was pretty solid in 2021, remarkable under the circumstances.
Even without having highly, and surprisingly, successful 2021 innings-eaters like exiled ex-Mets Steve Matz and Paul Sewald (combined 23-10) around, which compounded the problem, but that is 20/20.
Let's move on.
Mets' executives have to build a staff that (absent a strike) will need to go 162 games - plus the playoffs.
Yet they've lost Marcus Stroman and his 179 innings and 3.04 ERA, Aaron Loup with his 56 relief innings of 6-0 pitching with a 0.95 ERA, Rich Hill, who gave them 63 solid innings, possibly 9-4 Jeurys Familia and his 59 innings, and others like Joey Lucchesi (38 IP).
Noah Syndergaard, who would likely have been good for at least 100 innings in 2022, is gone. His tweets have also left the building. Baserunners will run wild against him for another team - but I digress.
But considering they used 38 pitchers in 2021 and still have lost a net 216 innings with Familia, Hill, Loup, and Lucchesi, they have a lot of work to do.
And the 15 pitchers and 4 position players who threw less than 10 innings in 2021? Combined they threw about 60 innings, surrendered about 60 runs. So a team that wants to win needs to stay out of the bottom of the barrel, because the bottom is filled with "L's".
Heck, even the 18th through 24th innings-in 2021 guys threw 233 innings and gave up 133 runs, which is a lot of runs and hence not the stuff of winning baseball.
Clearly, since the Mets had the 5th highest 2021 team ERA in the NL, and the Mets 15th through 42nd pitchers in terms of innings were pretty awful, the top 14 collectively were pretty darned productive.
The executives in Queens have to figure out to how avoid needing 20% of their innings in 2022 from slots 15 and lower from resulting in nearly 7 runs per 9 innings, as it did in 2021.
When that happens, that's how you lose pennant races.
So, for 2022, each team needs to figure on needing about 1,450 innings of pitching in the regular season.
How would I project the Mets' major innings providers so far?
Scherzer 180
Walker 160
Megill 160
deGrom 150
Carrasco 125
Peterson 100
Williams 100
Castro 70
Diaz 60
May 60
Lugo 60
Smith 50
That's 1,275 innings.
I think Adam Oller gets called up and gives the Mets 50 innings. Yamamoto? 25 innings. I think 75 between them is reasonable.
Now you're up to 14 pitchers and 1,350 innings.
To me, even though I tried to factor injuries into the above innings estimates by player, I still would estimate that above that, you need an additional 20% cushion, given the rash of injuries that seems to always spring up.
1.20 X 1,450 expected innings = 1,740 innings, including a realistic cushion.
So, to me, you need to come up with 390 (let's round to 400) viable and effectively pitched innings from other pitchers, either internal or from the outside.
That's a lot to fill.
The question is: how do you effectively fill those 400 innings, so that you avoid using marginal, high-run-per-innings, guys?
What pitchers could you see to fill those innings, internally and externally? If from the outside, whom, and who would you be willing to give up to get him?
That's what the Queens execs are pondering, but feel free to take a shot at speculating yourself. You've got the checkbook, you see the gaps, what do you do to build a fierce, top 5 MLB staff for 2022?
On December 19th, Joel Asher an put up an article of who the Mets can sign and he specified Collin McHugh and Yusei Kikuchi. These two guys can easily pass a grand total of 200 innings and do a good job.
ReplyDeleteI often have a problem with Sherman’s folly, but I have to admit that I at least check in on it.
Morning, Gus. Those 2 could be an excellent plug.
ReplyDeleteI still hope, too, after seeing the videos on John's fine post on Josh Walker yesterday, that Walker could be a 2022 diamond in the rough and provide some valuable innings in 2022.
Morning Gents,
ReplyDeleteGood call Gus...those two would really help. I would definitely want McHugh, he's a perfect fit for us. Spot starter, long reliever, he's been very good the last few years.
With Kicuchi I'm a little leery. His stats resembled Walkers last year...fell off pretty good in the second half. Still would take a flyer on him. (for the right price)
Like I've been saying they need 1 solid starter and 2 relievers...hopefully one of which is left handed. I actually think we will trade for a starter if possible...using McNeil, Smith and Davis as trade bait.
That article about Walker was very interesting yesterday. Looks like a Peterson clone. One of those guys can eat up some of those 100 innings as a long man.
Joe, I imagine McNeil, Davis and Smith are being considered by the FO as trade bait in innumerable scenarios involving pitching. It will be intriguing to see what the new team pulls off once deals can resume.
ReplyDeleteThe question is also, which prospects will be sacrificed in a trade, if any. My guess is one of Mauricio and Vientos could go in a trade. I hope not.
I am still all about Carlos Rondon his upside is higher than and even if he is injury prone he should provide 100 innings
ReplyDeleteIs a lockout the best news this season?
ReplyDeleteIf the season is shorten then that’s less innings and that’s not the worst thing for Degrom and Max. And it solves the need to fill in innings
Tom, I agree 100%. I actually don't want to see any of them go....but I know you have to give to get something in return. I think at present Smith is the odd man out. He is blocked by Alfonso, and he is not really an outfielder...although he would be a solid left hand bat off the bench.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the 2 prospects you mentioned would be most expendable with Mauricio blocked by Lindor.
Eddie, I would prefer Rondon myself if they don't have to go overboard on the amount of years.
Eddie, we'd hate a walkout that cancels games, but you're right, it could be a blessing in disguise in that regard.
ReplyDeleteIt's weird that back in Whitey Ford's day, it was 154 games, not 162, and one round of post-season.
Now it's 162 and a starter might also go 6 times in the playoffs on top of the 162. That's an ultra-marathon.
Zach Greinke was mentioned the other day as well who would probably be a one year deal. Had a 11-6 record with a 4.16 ERA and a solid 1.170 whip.
ReplyDeleteQuestion on Rodon is how healthy he'd be and how much he wants. But he had a killer 24 starts in 2021.
ReplyDeleteExpect to see McNeil and a duo or trio of minor leaguers go for a starting pitcher and either a reliever or a third baseman.
ReplyDeleteReese, I do not want to see "a duo or trio" of our top 6 minor leaguers go, nor Alex Ramirez and probably Dominguez. One would be my max. They can have any of the others, and one of Vientos or Mauricio.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see Josh Hader in Queens, though.
Greinke ought to be strongly considered for a 1 year deal, Gary, as long as he doesn't have Betances Syndrome.
ReplyDeleteHe also could pinch hit - a career .225 hitter, with remarkably just 114 Ks in 600 plate appearances. He certainly seems like if the pitching gig hadn't worked out, he could have made it as a hitter.
Greinke cost $35 million last year for an ERA over 4.00, his second straight year of doing so...no thank you!!! I can't emphasize that enough.
ReplyDeleteReese, is that what he'd be expecting this year? I have not tracked expected signing amounts for guys yet myself. I' sure Eppler will get the Mets prioritized on the best choices, which if Greinke wants that much will push him down the list.
ReplyDeleteTom, interesting article and estimates.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure if it was intentional, but your numbers for Schertzer, Walker, Megill, deGrom, Carrasco, Peterson, and Williams total up to 975. That is almost the exact number of innings that should be taken by starters as 162 times 6 innings per start = 972 innings.
Can the staff average 6 innings per start? It sure would be nice and certainly the top of the rotation probably can. We'll see.
That says that the bullpen needs about 500 innings as 162 * 9 = 1458, as you noted.
You have 300 of them accounted for with the rest of your roster, but this tells me they need to build the bullpen with some long guys.
Do they have enough with Oller, Yamamoto, perhaps a few from J. Walker? I don't think so.
Yes, a McHugh and Kikuchi would be nice additions. Kikuchi is a lefty - an added bonus.
I would like to bring back Chasen Shreve as a left handed specialist to replace Loup. He had a pretty nice season in Pittsburgh after pitching quite well with the Mets a year ago. (not Loup like, but Loup was never Loup like before, either).
And just to cause trouble on the site, I'll advocate for another year of Familia to take some of those innings.
And as you state, your estimates may be a bit high so you'll need to cover more starter innings. I would vote for another proven starter, probably through the trade route, Castillo or one of the guys from Oakland, although that would replace many of the starters innings, not add to them (at least partially). Or on a best case scenario, it would simply move Williams innings to long innings out of the pen, but it would be hard to see him get to 100 pitching in relief, even if he became a 3 or 4 inning guy.
I still like the idea of pairing pitchers to get full games from just two (three at most) pitchers. Carrasco and Peterson might make a good team.
btw. my vote is no on Grienke. I have been a Rodon fan, but with his injury history, I am not sure. He is a good pitcher that certainly could help out, if the expectation was 125 innings and it was managed that way, then I'd go for it. I would not sign him to a a top dollar contract and expect 160 or more innings.
ReplyDeleteBill, I was just spitballing some estimates, and as we know, estimates are nothing more. Going into 2021, I'm sure we all hoped for 180 innings of Jake, but we got 90. This year, hopefully, we get a solid, higher number of innings from Jake - but, heaven forbid, he goes all "Noah" on us. That's why I took what I felt were reasonable guesses and then added 20% - because they've used an insane number of pitchers in 2018, 2019, and 2021, and the back half of that list each year gives up roughly 7 runs per 9 innings - which makes you lose pennant races.
ReplyDeleteIn 2021, the hitters were primarily to blame - but the vast injuries to the staff turned a great pitching staff into an overall somewhat above average staff for the season. Avoiding real pitching quality depth is what the Wilpons did - they crossed their fingers - it hardly ever worked.