Well, the Mets didn't sign Kumar Rocker when they selected him 10th overall in the 2021 draft several months ago.
They also didn't take a flier on a J.T. Ginn type of guy in the draft they'd have wanted to go overshot on either with the unused cash, a big mistake.
The Mets do, though, get two first rounders in 2022, picks # 11 and # 14, Mack reminds us. May they strike gold in 2022.
Fine, but simply...
When it got to pick # 10, who could they have picked in the first round instead of Rocker? Sometimes, none of the guys drafted in, say, the next twenty picks do all that much.
Was that the case in 2021? Time will tell, but for now let's look at how the next 10 picks after Kumar did in 2021 when they debuted.
SS Brady House was snatched by the Nats at # 11. He hit .322 in 59 ABs, and quickly jumped all the way up to the # 2 prospect on their top 30 list.
C Harry Ford was picked in the 12th slot by the Mariners. In 19 games, .291/.400/.582. He is prospect # 5 on the deep, talented Mariners' prospect list.
In round 13, RHP Andrew Painter was picked by the Phillies. Four outings, no earned runs, 6 innings, 12 Ks. That's all it took for him to be the # 3 listed Phils prospect.
Giants' righty Will Bednar was the 14th overall pick. He did not pitch in 2021. Nonetheless, he is their 7th overall prospect.
15th first round pick was OF Sal Frelick. He hit .329 in the Brewers' minors this past summer and quickly jumped up to the # 2 prospect on their top 30 list.
16th pick in the 1st round Khalil Watson (SS) was grabbed by the Marlins. Just 9 pro games, .394/.524/.606. That was enough to make Watson their # 1 prospect.
17th overall 1st rounded SS Matt MacLain hit .283 with a .389 OBP in 106 ABs. Cincinnati immediately has him as their # 3 prospect.
18th rounder RHP Michael McGreevey did not pitch much - 5 outs, 2 runs, 3 Ks - but that was enough to make him the Cards' # 6 prospect.
19th pick in round 1 was RHP Gunnar Hoglund, who did not pitch. The Blue Jays nonetheless have him as their 4th overall prospect.
Finally, the 20th overall pick was the Yanks' Trey Sweeney. The SS had a .384 OBP and the Bombers have him as their # 7 prospect.
I could go on, but I won't. It shows how vital it is to sign the first rounders you draft. Incredibly, the next 10 picks after Rocker range from the drafting team's top prospect to only as low as their 7th prospect. Any one of those ten, had the Mets selected him instead of Rocker, would have been in the Mets' top 6 prospects already, I'd say.
Most of these guys, had the Mets drafted one of them instead of Rocker, we would have loved as our first round prospect. "Man, we picked a really good one. Another Crow."
Don't you agree?
And his pro development would be started a full year sooner, which would have been a huge plus for the Mets, whose farm system and pipeline of bona fide talent to the Mets is admittedly quite thin.
Morale of that story?
Be darned sure you can sign whomever you draft in high rounds. Especially the 10th overall pick.
P.S. While I was looking at the Yankees' prospect list to see where their 2021 first round guy fell on their list, I saw their top prospect is a SS named Anthony Volpe. He was the 30th overall pick in 2019, a level (late first round/second round) where the Mets rarely have picked well, with the obvious exceptions of Alonso and (possibly) Vientos and Matz in the 2nd round.
We typically get mediocre (or worse) guys like Kevin Plawecki or Desmond Lindsay and try to work up excitement about them. Until we find out that exciting they are not.
So what did this guy Volpe do for the Yanks' farm this year?
He did "WOW!", that's what.
109 games, 68 extra base hits, including 27 HRs, 113 runs scored, 86 RBIs, and a .423 OBP, plus 33 steals!
Just incredible. Ricky Henderson stuff, but with more power.
78 walks in 109 games suggests pitchers feared him.
He is 20, and is # 15 in baseball's overall top 100 prospects.
Take a second to compare Volpe to the oft-discussed Ronny Mauricio. We find ourselves seeing some very good attributes in him, while hoping his other lagging attributes (like just 24 walks in 100 games, and double the amount of errors) develop.
Volpe, by comparison? The numbers tell me there are no lagging attributes. Just excelling ones. He seems like a Jeter II possibility by 2023.
I'll leave it at that. Except to say to the Mets:
WAKE UP! DRAFT BETTER!
DRAFT "VOLPE'S"! NOT "LINDSAY'S".
Morning.
ReplyDeleteThe Kumar fiasco was the team's fault. They should have known what was going along here.
Still, the 2022 draft is MUCH STRONGER than 2021.
IMO, only Jack Leiter was a better pick, IF Kumar was healthy.
He wasn't so I don't look back here.
Also we would get another one when Conforto is signed so hopefully we can recoup losing Rocker and Crow.
ReplyDeleteI see another article on Soto's bro in the Post and just hope he's more Vlad Jr. or Griff Jr. than May Jr. or Mayberry Jr.
ReplyDeleteTom I'm still dreaming about signing Freeman because what he brings can't be matched AND we would take him away from the Braves and Yanks as thats a possibility too and Stevie would knock it out of the park for off season moves. Also what would your package be for Castillo?
ReplyDeleteYes, we lost Rocker (I cringed at the thought of a pitcher with that name on his uni pitching at Citi), but in effect we simply postponed last year's 1st rounder to this year's.
ReplyDeleteTommy Tanous and his crew have done a fine job in recent years, and I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do with 5 (6?) picks in this year's draft, which Mack has called much stronger than last year's class.
That pretty much sums it up. The Mets haven't shown much of a clue when it comes to drafts, while the Yankees (and Braves, etc.) always hit it out of the park.
ReplyDeleteBob W, that Volpe kid really looks like something - WOW. How many kids in the first 5 rounds over the years can you look at as a Mets fan and say "WOW, we really nailed that one!" I'd say one - Alonso. That's it. We need more WOWs. Period.
ReplyDeleteMack, they should have known better. Hopefully, they will know better in 2022's draft. Power arms, power bats, tools guys. Period. I don't want to get into names too much, but no more Blake Tiberi types in the first 5 rounds. Where are the clearly superior tools there? I only want healthy guys with TOOLS.
ReplyDeleteSoto Jr has to be much better than Greg Guerrero - unless signing him is in effect an early "downpayment" of sorts on Juan Soto coming here. That would be a worthwhile spend.
ReplyDeleteGary, I'd love Freeman. I'd much prefer to hear your package for Castillo.
ReplyDeleteBill, I hope we nail 2022. I hear what Mack is saying, but to see a few guys selected after Rocker becoming their team's # 1 prospect means we missed out last year. Crow got drafted and he slotted in around # 5 for the Mets, and he was the 6th overall. I think, with hindsight several months later, that there were at least a few superior guys we could have drafted instead of Kumar.
ReplyDeleteUnless this was part of some plan (let's draft him, find something wrong with him, then get a better pick in 2022), I think if superior talent (like the few guys who vaulted to being their team's # 1 prospect already) could have been drafted instead of Kumar, I would have picked that "someone else" in 2021.
Drafting is both an art and a science. Sometimes the guys who look good in the metrics don't measure up or stay healthy. Sometimes guys who don't go in the early rounds wind up being far better than you would have anticipated. It's over. I let it go.
ReplyDeleteI posted this last week,but I will post it again. In addition to Soto MLB.com is reporting that the Mets are expected to sign Simon Juan,a 5 tool, 16th ranked, 2022 International prospect. They have compared him to a young George Springer/Byran Buxton. If they are right, we will have another excellent prospect in our minors. Signings are scheduled to begin January 15.
ReplyDeleteDJ - Thanks about Simon Juan - I had not heard that. 16th ranked is solid.
ReplyDeleteIs Soto ranked? He is supposedly only 15 still.