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1/18/22

Tom Brennan - The Long-Term Lack of Mets' International Player Signing Success


MOST SIGNED INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS HEAD TO THE DSL AND NEVER MAKE IT FURTHER

The Mets just signed Simon Juan, a young outfielder ranked around 15th in baseball's top 50 international prospects, and a bunch of other guys not in the MLB top 50.

It's funny how, if you're not totally in the weeds, each year you see who the Mets sign in the international market and say, "who are these guys?"  

Considering most are 17 years old or less, such unfamiliarity is understandable.  Considering the lack of historical career success of so many of the former signees, with so many starting AND finishing their careers in the DSL developmental league, it is further understandable.

We know in general that the higher a guy is picked in the first round of the annual baseball draft, the better they tend to turn out to be - a 30th overall draft pick, over the decades, will not have nearly, on average, the success of an overall 1st pick.  Even though nothing is guaranteed - first overall pick lists have their shares of Steve Chilcott's.  

I wonder, therefore, how a 15th overall international teenager signing will fare vs., say, one of the 3 top international signings?  My guess is there is a similar dramatic difference (consider top 3 international guys like Vlad Guerrero and Wander Franco).  

That basic, but key, question involves a lot of analysis that I leave for someone else (but one that the Mets' front office who receive pay checks to do this sort of analysis should surely undertake).  If they want me to analyze it, let's negotiate an analyst fee!  Heck, my analyst gets a fee, why shouldn't I?

Anyway, if you're spending several million smackers a year on international signings, you ought to figure out how you will get maximized future outcomes for the money shelled out.

Personally, though, down on the Mets' farm right now, who among you can not be somewhere in the range of reasonably excited to totally enthused over 3 internationally-signed players in the system who are now under development:

Francisco Alvarez (ranked the Mets' # 1), a catcher who seems targeted for real MLB stardom.

Ronny Mauricio (3), a SS(?) who is still a work in progress, but who flashed surprising power and potential in 2021.

Alex Ramirez (7) - a toolsy 18 year old OF who played in 2021 like a toolsy 21 year old.  Maybe he'll be a toolsy MLB 21 year old in a few years.

Also listed in the Mets' Top 15 prospects, and hence worthy of future MLB career consideration, are pitchers Robert Dominguez (9), Jose Butto (14), and Junior Santos (15).  And a few more from 16 thru 30.

Overall, a very solid and well represented current international list.  Any objective Mets fan or even more casual observer has to be happy with the improvement in foreign signings in the past several years.

It got me to start thinking, regarding Mets' international players:

1) Who have the Mets signed who did very well for an extended period with the Mets.  

2) Who are players who've made it to the big leagues and are no longer with the Mets.

My take?

The Mets have done a lot better in recent years in signing successful, or projecting to be successful, international players, and...

Over the decades, they've not gotten all that much to show for their international signing efforts.

Looking back, John from Albany quickly reminded me, the Mets did get a dandy when, in 1991, they signed Edgardo Alfonso. Thirty one years ago is a long time, huh?

Around 20 years ago, they bagged another terrific talent in Jose Reyes, the SS.  They did sign another Jose Reyes after him, BTW, but he went nowhere fast.

Jeurys Familia often gets criticized, but his body of work as a (mostly Mets) MLB reliever has been very solid.

Wilmer Flores - many a Mets fan shed a tear when he left the Mets.  A moderate (clearly below All Star level) MLB talent.

Carlos Gomez did little as a Met, but he did help bring Johan Santana to the Mets, and SeƱor CG had a very solid MLB career.

Rey Ordonez was a great field, little hit guy for a handful of seasons.  Nice while it lasted.

Jenrry Mejia saved 28 games one season, but accomplished little else.

Ruben Tejada started out well in his early 20s, but petered out, and is fondly remembered by very few, other than Reese Kaplan.

I imagine I am leaving a few hombres out - this is off the top of my head.

They've also signed - and recently traded - Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, both of whom ought to be solid, if not above average, major leaguers when all is said and done.

They've had many duds, like Fernando Martinez (of course, who knows what he might have become without having the knees of a 60 year old when he turned 21); Greg Guerrero (Vlad got all the family talent); Adrian Hernandez (yo, Adrian, how did you only manage to hit .133 in 98 minor league at bats with 3 RBIs last year?); and others.

Overall, as I see it, not much from the signed-by-Mets international front players of real Mets' impact over 30 years.

They have, however, employed many Latin ballplayers over the years in key roles, who started out elsewhere.

On the 2021 and 2022 rosters are Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Castro, Carlos Carrasco, Yennsy Diaz, and Antonio Santos (along with prospects Mauricio and Butto, to kept them out of Rule 5).

Of course over the years, the Mets have had some very notable mid-career acquisitions of players initially signed on the international front, most notably baseball greats Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran, as well as the likes of Endy Chavez, Wilson Ramos,  Armando Benitez, and Francisco Rodriguez.

In conclusion, if the Mets' hierarchy likes international players so much that they end up signing or trading for so many at very costly prices,  hopefully they will continue to cultivate (and improve in the correct signing of) international talent...to me, it's clear the Mets need to turn MORE of their international teenager signings into impact big leaguers.

And, understanding it is an imprecise process, they must not swing-and-miss on future franchise-changing uber-talents like Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna, while signing lesser impact dudes and total busts instead. 

Mine was not an exhaustive study, but do you agree, and whom did I overlook? 

As for me?  I'm doing my part...I'm heading out to the International House of Pancakes.  I hear they're really stacked over there.

22 comments:

  1. Will send this to Steve when I get back from Dr. appointment.

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  2. One thing to consider…….the top prospects have a choice where they want to go (even though money is very persuasive), so perhaps the cream of the crop has simply passed on the Mets’ interest, more then the Mets inability to sign them?

    The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, but the teams’ reputation also needs to be rehabilitated, IMO. The change from the Wilpon’s to Steve Cohen is a great start and it hopefully makes the organization more desirable moving forward for ALL free agents. That and winning consistently, of course.

    Or, the next CBA could bring an international draft and the big fish get spread out a bit more?

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  3. My only issue is why or when will the Mets be invoked with the top guys annually

    There is a ranking for a reason and while there is less of a guarantee I want to be involved with the top 5 guys than spread our allotment across 21 guys

    W. Franco, Guerrero the guy who was signed by the Yankees a few years ago for 5 million

    Those guys are the deep end of the pool I want us to swim in

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  4. Mike, good points - simply, the Mets are a losing franchise until proven otherwise. Winners attract real talent.

    In Vlad's case, his Dad wa a bug star in Toronto, but the Yankees dangle for the big fish whenever they deem it to be their advantage.

    I am waiting for US to sign a $5 million guy. If he fails, so be it. More than likely, he'll become a star.

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  5. Eddie, agreed. Time to stop playing cutesy and second fiddle. Tome to be a predator when it comes to talent.

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  6. Agree with Eddie. We need to swim in the deeper end.

    FYI, Francisco Alvarez was the Mets all time highest paid international signee. Good one to mimic.

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  7. John, excellent point - most times, it seems that $1 million to $2 million gets you anywhere from a bust to a decent player.

    Championship teams relish getting All Star talent to slot in their line ups every day. And spend accordingly when they can.

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  8. Steve Cohen knows what I feel about the piss pour past the Mets have had in this area.

    Look for big changes here in the future.

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  9. With the money the Mets now have, there should be no reason, non at all that they should not be trying to sign a top 5 prospect every time. This is how you build the organization from the bottom up. It is the reason why organizations like the Braves, Dodgers and others continue to be successful.

    Sign quality as opposed to just quantity.

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  10. Tom

    At the same time I think Acuna Jr signed for 100K. The Mets had the Dad and he put up great numbers in AA. They should have been all over JR.

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  11. John, I don't know who the father is - I do know Acuna Jr has had successful MLB relatives. Seems Acuna Jr would have been worth a gamble for just that reason.

    BTW, the Mets have a young pitcher who threw 7 innings in his pro debut in the Florida Complex League last year named Jose Acuna. What is ceiling might be I have no idea.

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  12. Mack, we need big changes, for sure. Do like the big market teams. And that includes when the next Ohtani comes along, which is a related but different player opportunity.

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  13. Tough either way. Spend all the money on one or two guys vs spread it out in a dozen guys at lower bonuses. Hard to win often with these lottery tickets.

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  14. Good recap, Tom. My only gripe is the annual Chilcott bash.

    Who knows if he hadn't tore his shoulder/arm up diving back into 2B? The pre-draft chatter ("printernet" in those days) was all Jackson & Chilcott with Reggie being the surer thing but a "Berra/Campy class" 2 was rarer than ++++tools OF'er & maybe worth the risk.

    The real tragedy was the next year, when they by-passed Bench (already having a franchise catcher on the farm. Reggie & Bench going into the 70's would have been fun, eh?

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    1. I posted this earlier but it ain't showing up on my.phone.

      I always remember from my childhood...

      Gil Hodges was Brooklyn's first baseman

      They decided to groom two youngsters as his someday replacement.

      One was Norm Sherry.who had short time success and the other was Chuck Connerly, who went Hollywood and became The Rifleman.

      They past and eventually discarded their AAA and AA prospects...

      Norm Cash and Jim Gentile

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  15. Hobie, had they drafted Jackson and Bench, it would have dramatically altered the course of this franchise for the better. Who knows if a much better hitting team, for instance, keeps a happier-to-stay Ryan, for instance. Coulda. woulda, shoulda.

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  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  17. Ernest, I still think a top ranked international kid ought to be somewhat similar to getting a top 3 dtaft pick. The Mets have never been that bold in international signings, so we'll never truly know. What I do know, though, is between Reyes and Alvarez, they haven't generated a whole lot - a mostly solid to strong Familia, and no other all stars. Not a good record at all.

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  18. Mack, that was living proof that sixteen teams were too few. Population growth and African American players allowed into the big leagues, I just wonder how many major league caliber guys were stuck in the minors in 1960 - or retired.

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  19. read good thread, all around...thanx Tom

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  20. LOL, Us geezers can get our Chucks crossed.

    Chuck Connerly was a NYG quarterback, Chuck Conners was the Rifleman.

    But the Big One that got away was Roberto Clemente.

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