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1/13/22

Tom Brennan: Mets Pitching Low Points in 2021 to Address for 2022

 


Some things are bad, and it is childish to hide from them and not address them

 

To win, it helps consider the deficiencies that were present in 2021, and take rigorous actions to fix them for 2022.  

In other words, avoid the ever-harmful Wilpon Wishful Thinking Syndrome.

The collective Mets' pitching cohort may have finished under .500 at 77-85, 3.90 ERA in 2021, but it really wasn't their fault - if you instead paired the Mets' staff with the hitting of a team like Houston, they would, at a bare minimum, have won 15 more games.  I'm guessing 20 more.

Heck, the Red Sox had a higher 4.26 ERA, but went 92-70, or 15 games better, than the offensively-impotent Mets.

The Mets had a better team ERA than 20 of the 30 teams in baseball last season.

Prior to the All Star Game break, they were holding the offensively challenged team together at 48-40, 3.45 ERA.  

After the break, they slid to 29-45, 4.41.  The 4.41 ERA, mind you, was 17th best in post-ASB baseball, not bad, really.  In fact, the Red Sox were slightly worse at 4.47, but were 37-34, or 9.5 games better than the Mets, post-break due to their superior offense.

Pitching low points?  They actually were few in 2021.

The Mets' pitching's main problems were:

1) Jake breaking down in early July and never returning.

2) Carrasco joining the rotation very late and very rusty and very ineffectively, and Syndergaard's anticipated June/July return becoming a mere 2 meaningless end-of-season innings.

3) Needing to cover huge innings injury-induced deficits with a flurry of mostly inferior pitchers.

Injuries kept the 2021 staff from being superior, instead of just somewhat above average.  A shame.

In the 85 games they lost, they had a 5.31 ERA, which at first sounds high, but which was actually 5th best in baseball.  And, in terms of ERA in team losses, they were close to being the 2nd best team; the best was only slightly better at 5.14.  A big part of that 0-85 in losses is that the Mets scored miserably in those losses, with just 188 total runs or 2.34 runs per game.  

The sorry Nationals lost a ton of games, but they scored well in them - 301 runs in 97 games (3.10 runs per game).  Had the Mets scored a similar 3.1 runs in their losses, probably 10 more Mets wins would have occurred, enough perhaps to make the playoffs.

Mets' relievers did well, and seldom seemed to go deep into games, but surprisingly to me, they threw "just" 595 innings, with 17 teams throwing more reliever innings.  We live in the Era of the Reliever, that much is clear.

Oddly, Mets pitchers in the aggregate, when starting, and Mets pitchers in the aggregate when relieving, both compiled  3.90 ERAs. Pretty remarkable.

Blown saves?  Many teams had more saves, many had fewer, so the Mets did OK in that regard, hurt in part, of course, by not getting the opportunity to pitch AGAINST a weak hitting Mets team.

No, the biggest key for this team's mound cohort is to stay healthy and deep with pitching quality.  Their top 14 pitchers (led by Monsieur Loup and SeƱor deGrom) had a superb overall ERA, while the bottom 28 guys the Mets used allowed runs galore, roughly 7 runs per 9 innings.  Simply, in 2022, you need more innings from your top guys and fewer from your bottom guys.

Thats right,  So...needed for 2022?   Health, quality, and true depth, enough to do much better in avoiding the "lousy-pitchers-give-up-7-runs-per-9" quagmire.   

Solution?  Seems like a real quality starter and a few real quality relievers are still needed to be signed or traded for.  Then, also aggressively fix injury-related loss of depth more quickly and effectively.

I'll leave the how-to's to you GMs out there.  Time for you to pitch in.  I've left you a pen and some blank contracts, now get to work.   Who ya signing, to bolster this staff?

9 comments:

  1. For me, the pitching low points in 2021 are the same they were for 2020, 2019, etc.

    Injuries.

    Light a candle every night regarding the health of our SP1 and SP2. If they both go down, we won't be able to beat the Long Island Ducks.

    The Mets world is Bryant happy (so am I), but add another seasoned starter and reliever and I could say that the off season was a 10.

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  2. I agree with Mack. Pitching quality and depth is a far greater need to solve than hitting. I fully expect some rebound seasons from players who tanked in 2021 (pretty much all of them this side of Pete Alonso). You also have made some nice additions. It's pitching that needs to be the primary focus.

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  3. Feel with the all or nothing attitude this off season, signing Stroman would have made a lot of sense.

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  4. I can't agree that pitching trumps hitting in priorities for this team.

    Had the Mets had a 15th best scoring team in 2021, with the pitching they put together, they would have won a wild card.

    So both need to be enhanced. But, going into the off season, the hitting much more so than the pitching.

    Their 3.90 team ERA in 2021 was 9th best in baseball, hitter scoring was 29th.

    I actually cannot fault the Mets for 2021 on pitching. Just too many injuries, which screwed up a well formulated plan going into 2021. I would, nonetheless, do even more for 2022 in pitching than was done in 2021. If, somehow, we have too much pitching at the trade deadline, we can be sellers, not buyers.

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  5. Trade for an A’s starter(Davis,Smith and or McNeil) and go all in sign Jansen.

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  6. I agree Tom.........pitching wasn't perfect, but it was good enough overall to field a playoff team IF the damn offense could have played league average. That doesn't mean ignore the pitching staff this offseason, but the heavy lifting was needed much more on the offensive side, since it was "offensive" in 2021.

    Max was a great addition, but I'd like to see another mid-level starter and another arm or two (lefties) for the middle of the bullpen. If Billy can accomplish that, while alleviating the logjam in the infield (aka a trade or two), the offseason would be nearly perfect and I would really like their prospects for 2022.

    ***Side note, if the labor strife is figured out, would a slightly shorter regular season actually benefit the Mets?

    Oh and like Mack said, light a few candles for the team's health.......we should be due for a healthy season after the last few years of unbelievable injuries.

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  7. Alex, an As starter? Sure, but I want to keep McNeil.

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  8. Mike, look back at how incredibly few players the 1969 and 1986 Champ teams used in comparison to 2021. One can only conclude players today are made of peanut brittle. Being healthier than last year's triage unit should, even in the current day and age, be an easy hurdle to clear.

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