Tom Brennan: Mets Pitching Low Points in 2021 to Address for 2022

 

Some things are bad, and it is childish to hide from them and not address them

 

To win, it helps consider the deficiencies that were present in 2021, and take rigorous actions to fix them for 2022.  

In other words, avoid the ever-harmful Wilpon Wishful Thinking Syndrome.

The collective Mets' pitching cohort may have finished under .500 at 77-85, 3.90 ERA in 2021, but it really wasn't their fault - if you instead paired the Mets' staff with the hitting of a team like Houston, they would, at a bare minimum, have won 15 more games.  I'm guessing 20 more.

Heck, the Red Sox had a higher 4.26 ERA, but went 92-70, or 15 games better, than the offensively-impotent Mets.

The Mets had a better team ERA than 20 of the 30 teams in baseball last season.

Prior to the All Star Game break, they were holding the offensively challenged team together at 48-40, 3.45 ERA.  

After the break, they slid to 29-45, 4.41.  The 4.41 ERA, mind you, was 17th best in post-ASB baseball, not bad, really.  In fact, the Red Sox were slightly worse at 4.47, but were 37-34, or 9.5 games better than the Mets, post-break due to their superior offense.

Pitching low points?  They actually were few in 2021.

The Mets' pitching's main problems were:

1) Jake breaking down in early July and never returning.

2) Carrasco joining the rotation very late and very rusty and very ineffectively, and Syndergaard's anticipated June/July return becoming a mere 2 meaningless end-of-season innings.

3) Needing to cover huge innings injury-induced deficits with a flurry of mostly inferior pitchers.

Injuries kept the 2021 staff from being superior, instead of just somewhat above average.  A shame.

In the 85 games they lost, they had a 5.31 ERA, which at first sounds high, but which was actually 5th best in baseball.  And, in terms of ERA in team losses, they were close to being the 2nd best team; the best was only slightly better at 5.14.  A big part of that 0-85 in losses is that the Mets scored miserably in those losses, with just 188 total runs or 2.34 runs per game.  

The sorry Nationals lost a ton of games, but they scored well in them - 301 runs in 97 games (3.10 runs per game).  Had the Mets scored a similar 3.1 runs in their losses, probably 10 more Mets wins would have occurred, enough perhaps to make the playoffs.

Mets' relievers did well, and seldom seemed to go deep into games, but surprisingly to me, they threw "just" 595 innings, with 17 teams throwing more reliever innings.  We live in the Era of the Reliever, that much is clear.

Oddly, Mets pitchers in the aggregate, when starting, and Mets pitchers in the aggregate when relieving, both compiled  3.90 ERAs. Pretty remarkable.

Blown saves?  Many teams had more saves, many had fewer, so the Mets did OK in that regard, hurt in part, of course, by not getting the opportunity to pitch AGAINST a weak hitting Mets team.

No, the biggest key for this team's mound cohort is to stay healthy and deep with pitching quality.  Their top 14 pitchers (led by Monsieur Loup and Señor deGrom) had a superb overall ERA, while the bottom 28 guys the Mets used allowed runs galore, roughly 7 runs per 9 innings.  Simply, in 2022, you need more innings from your top guys and fewer from your bottom guys.

Thats right,  So...needed for 2022?   Health, quality, and true depth, enough to do much better in avoiding the "lousy-pitchers-give-up-7-runs-per-9" quagmire.   

Solution?  Seems like a real quality starter and a few real quality relievers are still needed to be signed or traded for.  Then, also aggressively fix injury-related loss of depth more quickly and effectively.

I'll leave the how-to's to you GMs out there.  Time for you to pitch in.  I've left you a pen and some blank contracts, now get to work.   Who ya signing, to bolster this staff?