Some guys are - I dunno - just remarkable.
I can only go so long without doing an article involving one of my favorite Mets, Edwin Diaz - so, here goes:
I actually learned something from a fan's Facebook post, as I write this.
Edwin Diaz was a much better home pitcher in 2021 than an "away" pitcher. But before I focus in on 2021, what about his career?
In Citifield, in his career, he is 7-5 with a 2.86 ERA as a Met, with 40 saves and 137 Ks in 85 innings.
Pretty danged good. Me? I like 137 Ks in 85 innings, even if the hitters didn't like it so much. Only 46% of the outs he has recorded at Citifield were by other than strikeout. The other 54%? Take a seat.
Forgetting his Seattle home pitching for a moment, on the road in his career, he is just 2-14, 3.25, but career-wise, at home, whether in Seattle or NY, he is 11-14, 3.21 career at home.
His ERA and Ks per inning and WHIP on the road are very close to what it is at home - he just seems to fail to win as much on the road - in part, no doubt, to being in a tie game at home that his team pulls out in the bottom half of the inning for a win. But, if he is on the road and gives up a go-ahead run in the last inning, there are no "last licks" - he loses.
Back to 2021 now.
In 2021, Edwin was a home beast - and a road "least."
4-1, 1.38 ERA at home. Ouch, that's good.
Just 1-5, 6.85 ERA on the road. Ouch, that's...ouch!
Now, back to his career stats, as I ramble a bit.
On the road, sometimes in very limited innings, (just 23 total road innings for the teams shown below), he has very high career ERAs against what one might categorize as tough late-in-game offensive squads in parks with raucous fans:
Nats: 9.39 ERA
LAD: 15.43 ERA
Phil.: 9.00 ERA
Bos.: 8.10 ERA
Lastly, in his 3 years in Seattle, contrary to his home/road results with the Mets in 2021, he was definitely a better road pitcher than at home:
His ERA while with Seattle (where he was 4-14, with 109 saves), was 2.64 overall, but pitching in Seattle, his career ERA is 3.51, so it doesn't take a mathematician to estimate that his road ERA while pitching for Seattle was roughly a stellar 1.50 - or thereabouts.
Rambling further into Edwinsville, Tomas Nido fans like John From Albany would also be interested to know that Edwin's ERA while pitching to Nido is 2.67, while pitching to James McCann in 2021, it was 4.08. And pitching previously to the human Buffalo Burger, Wilson Ramos, it was higher than that. For which pitch-non-framer Ramos should have been framed. (Actually, I remember John bringing up that point a number of times).
Perhaps Nido is a keeper - just for that reason. But, of course, Edwin Diaz did his very best with another back-up catcher, Patrick Mazeika (8.1 innings, 0.00, 2 hits allowed, 12 Ks). So put that in your back up catcher's pipe and smoke it. This just proves there aren't necessarily any Pat answers.
Overall, returning ever-so-briefly from a mild moment of levity, Edwin presents a muddled picture. Diaz was much better at home than on the road in 2021 - but overall, much better ERA-wise on the road than at home prior to 2021.
I guess all of the above makes Edwin Diaz, I don't know...unpredictable. What does he have in store for 2022 - I guess you'll just have to watch and find out. I plan to.
We've all seen him - other-worldly 80% or so of the time, shaky to ghastly the other 20%. (Those are not official stats, by the way, just my rambling-related imaginary estimates).
Considering all of the above, my one recommendation (besides keeping him as a treasured key Met) is to find someone else to close games in Washington, Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Boston.
On a different tack, someone in the Mets' analytics department ought to be investigating the "crime scene" of each and every Mets' Diaz loss and blown save looking for patterns and clues that might help save the Mets from a 2022 meltdown.
I know my hero (besides Edwin), the equally remarkable Jack Bauer, would find them in under 24 Hours and come up with an optimal plan to prevent disaster and ensure great success.
My ramblings are over. Now it is your turn to ramble back.
Is Edwin your man? If not, what's YOUR plan?
Amazing by comparison was effective Mets reliever Ron Taylor, a 9-4 co-closer on the 1969 team.
ReplyDeleteHis hast two seasons with the Mets he fanned just 60 guys in 135 innings. But he was still solid.
In 146 innings, just 11 more than Taylor fanned 60 in, Edwin as a Met has struck out 238 guys.
I'm sure Taylor induced far more inning-ending double plays than Diaz.
First of all, NEVER pitch this guy in a non-save situation. It just isn't his mindset.
ReplyDeleteAs for whether he's a keeper, let me put it this way.
He is until someone better comes along.
That's the point Mack. Hader might be better - but what will it take to get him? (Maybe Cohen will)
ReplyDeleteKimbreal? Janssen? Both aging and likely in decline, and probably less effective in 2022 than Edwin.
Who else?
Flaws and all, guys like Edwin don't grow on trees.
Tom
DeleteIt would take 2 current Mets + Ginn.
You can have Davis and McNeal.
And if you substitute Mauricio with Ginn, I say do it.
Edwin Diaz became the player that Mets fans love to hate after his disastrous 2019 season. Some have never gotten over the number of walk-off HRs that he gave up to blow saves and/or lose games. I have a theory on why that happened. If you remember, it was the year of the "juiced ball" where balls were flying out of the park all over baseball. Scientific studies on the balls showed a somewhat more "slippery" surface, leading to less air resistance and longer travel. Diaz has a 2-pitch arsenal - high velocity, high movement fastball, and late, hard breaking slider. Both high movement fastballs and late breaking sliders need the spinning ball to be influenced greatly by the air it travels through. So in 2019, the same root cause for more HRs also impacted pitchers like Diaz greatly because his fastball had less movement and his slider less break. In the late innings when desperate batters need to swing for the fences to tie or win a game, a straight 100mph fastball or 90mph slider is much more likely to "find the barrel".
ReplyDeleteDiaz still gave up some HRs in 2020 and 2021 but not nearly as many, and I saw alot more break in his pitches in '21. If anything, his big problem last year was controlling the movement so he didn't get behind in the count.
So I would keep Diaz if he is at all coachable. He still has top-notch stuff, and if he could add another pitch like a change-up, he will be striking out batters and piling up saves for years to come (he's only 28 this year).
Mack, I say "do it" as well. Hader, if he and Diaz stayed healthy, would be a pen duo other teams would dread to see.
ReplyDeletePaul, well put - I think that was Diaz's 2019 problem. He was mostly good that year, but had too many disastrous outings. Great in 2020, very solid in 2021, I don't dwell in 2019. Maybe this will be his second best career year - almost impossible to approach his brilliant 2018.
ReplyDeleteTom, do you have data on how many of his games were save situations in those home and road splits?
ReplyDeleteI agree with Mack that I would limit the use of Diaz greatly in non-save situations.
Good stuff Tom .. I didn't realize his splits were that wide.
He's not yet automatic when it comes to saves like John Franco, Billy Wagner and others proved to be, but his stuff is nasty. I'd look to existing pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and new bullpen coach to let him know he's "The Guy" and he should know that. I'd be looking for the Loup/Familia replacements of innings pitched and not for another closer (or a former closer in late career decline). They would want to be paid as if they were closers still. Look to a guy like Cishek to take on a lot of innings in a setup role.
ReplyDeleteBill, Jen Psaki asked me to circle back to you. Diaz was 23 of 24 in saves at home in 2021, just 9 of 14 on the road.
ReplyDeleteIn his "disastrous" 2019, he was 14 of 17 in saves at home and 12 of 16 on the road.
In that disastrous 2019, he had 66 outings - 4 horrific outings in which he allowed 16 earned runs in 3 innings...and 20 earned runs in his 55 other innings spanning 62 outings.
Simply, you can't go by ERA. He had bad outings at bad times. He was mostly excellent that year.
Reese, good points.
ReplyDelete