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Dominic Smith, back in happy, hopeful times after winning FSL player of the year several years ago. |
In 2020, Dominic Smith had an abbreviated break out season. He'd had a strong 2019 season, then followed it up in 2020 with this:
50 games, 42 RBIs, .316/.377/.616.
Project those numbers over 150 games and you get: WOW!
Of note, he hit 10 HRs, but despite getting on base a whole lot in those 50 games, he only scored 17 runs when not by home run.
I still thought he was tracking well with the career of a former MLB star first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez.
I therefore expected a star year from Smith in 2021.
That Gonzalez comparison did not hold in 2021, however.
Like much of the team's offense, he had a frigid start through frigid April, hitting just .222, with a .250 on base %.
He picked it up to hit .282 in May, but the power that resulted in his .616 slugging % in 2020 was nowhere to be found, as he had just 7 doubles and 2 HRs in his first 44 games through May 31, with just 13 runs scored and 16 RBIs.
June and July brought him somewhat closer to his 2020 pace, as he hit 9 HRs and drove in 30 over that 55 game stretch, but he still hit only .255 with a .335 on base % in those months.
In the last several games in July, he went cold. He stayed cold.
After July, he plummeted to 24 for 112 with 7 doubles, no HRs, 12 RBIs, and just 6 runs scored.
He did have a bereavement leave in early September. Perhaps that threw him off his game.
But his playing time was cut, and he sputtered to the finish line.
Overall, he got to the plate 493 times, drove in just 58 runs, and scored just 43 runs, going .244/.304/.363, a drastic drop of 253 points in slugging percentage! Simply, a dreary year.
Bewildering to me, in looking at his statistical breakouts, is that he hit .312 against lefties, but just .218 vs. righties.
How a lefty hitter puts up a split like that is a head scratcher.
Compare him to so-so former Mets lefty 1B/LF Lucas Duda, who hit .249/.351/.481 vs. righties, but just .211/.282/.351 against righties, a more normal differential.
So...the Mets are faced with what to do with Smith for 2022.
Trade him? Keep him in hopes of a rebound, considering he is cheap?
Me? I'd trade Smith and move on.
Smith was ill-prepared to succeed when first called up, and failed in 2017 and 2018; did well but in less than 200 PAs in 2018; did very well, but in the weird, season-shortened 2020; had just 396 total plate appearances in 2019 and 2021, making it hard to assess the likelihood of future success; and flopped in 2021.
I just don't trust him to not give us more of 2021 in 2022.
Baseball Reference projects him for 2022 to have 500 plate appearances, 16 HRs, 67 RBIs, a .261 average, and 57 runs scored. That would be a bit of a bounce - but still mediocre for a team that wants to win a championship in 2022.
People often ask...which of the three of Jeff McNeil, JD Davis, and Dominic Smith would you trade?
McNeil hit a career .319 over his first 3 seasons, then slumped, in part due to injuries. I think he bounces back to hit .300.
Davis had a fine 2019, a so-so, short 2020, and then hit well enough, but played sparingly, in 2021 due to hand injuries.
All three could be traded, but if I was in charge, I keep the cheap McNeil and Davis, but move the not as cheap Dominic Smith.
I don't know if he lost his focus on baseball to some degree in 2021. He obviously was off-focus when he first got called up to the majors at 75 pounds more than when they signed him out of high school.
That troubles me, and I don't want mediocrity on this 2022 Mets team, in hopes of a rebound.
I trade Dominic Smith.
He also can play a passable outfield and a solid first base. So can Davis. So, soon, will Vientos.
I trade Dominic Smith.
He seems to lack a "winning" chip. Seems distractible, soft, perhaps insufficiently self-disciplined. Seems like a guy who belongs as a starter on a sub .500 team. I want a Mets team stocked with winners myself. I'm getting old, and have seen a lot of Mets nonsense over the past 30 years. I want a no-nonsense team.
I trade Dominic Smith.
Looked at another way, if he was on another team right now, would you want to the New York Mets to trade FOR him? Not me. I've seen enough. Maybe he is ready, some might suggest, to become the next Justin Turner.
Me? I kind of doubt that.
I'm not at all sure he is even ready to become the next Lucas Duda.
Am I too harsh? Am I wrong? You tell me.
I'll play devil's advocate for a moment. Perhaps I am wrong. After all, in 2019 and 2020, he got 177 at bats both seasons. In those 354 at bats, he hit a combined .300/.366/.570, with 67 RBIs.
Impressive - I'd take 150 games of that, wouldn't you? Those are kind of like - oh, I don't know - Rusty Staub-type numbers?
Maybe 2021 was just a really "off" year for Smith?
What would YOU do with Smith in 2022?
I think the next few weeks (hopefully not months) will determine what to do with Dom. If we get an NL DH, then keep him, make him the regular 1B, put Pete at DH. Dom can sit against Lefties and Pete play first with a righty DH.
ReplyDeleteIf no DH, then see what you can get for him. He is coming off a down year. Unless you are getting back quality, you may need to hold him until his value increases.
John, good points - one problem though - he hit much better against lefties (.312) than righties (.218) in 2021. Go figure.
ReplyDeleteSometimes change is needed to spark a team. Sometimes, though, you stick with a team by-and-large, as they did going from hitless 1968 into World Series 1969, and it all comes together.
I think a little more change in mix couldn't hurt. We'll see.
I will stay out of this one.
ReplyDeleteMack is smart here :)
ReplyDeleteThe Nationals might want Dom. What a headline: MR SMITH GOES TO WASHINGTON
Hello Tom,
ReplyDeleteI would keep him for now and trade him only if the return makes sense. A lot of Mets players had a very poor 2021 season. Newly minted 341M Lindor spend most of the year at the Mendoza line as an example.
Sometimes we just have to allow for a bad year and move on to the next. I laugh when I see trade proposals where a pitcher had a good 2021 season and is now worth McNeil, Smith and Ginn.
When I see this, I have to ask myself, what's more likely, that McNeil hits near 300 in 2022 or that the pitcher in question has another year like 2021?. Add Smith who I would bet that if traded and allowed to play his natural position would bounce back big time and Ginn and that trade makes no sense at all.
McNeil, Smith and Davis should stay with the Mets for now. If they are all hitting well in spring training (if we have it) their value will be way up.
And yes, out of the 3, Smith should be the first one traded.
Smith hurt his wrist banging it into the left field corner early in the year and that’s what happened to his power. Power doesn’t just disappear without a reason. Many times I find myself wanting to trade Alonso while he’s peeking and play a Davis/Smith combo at first, but… then I look at Alonso’s stats and change my mind.
ReplyDeleteToo many corner outfielder/first baseman types, but those positions are also the easiest to fill, so the return won’t be too big unless Smith blows up. I would keep Smith as depth, and see how things go. By trading him now, you can only lose because what are you getting back? Nothing worthwhile.
Well, Gus and Viper, if Smith's story of 2021 was one of playing thru injury that messed up his hitting more than I realized, and he his healed up, maybe he should stay.
ReplyDeleteI really thought going into 2021 he was the next Adrian Gonzalez. If the injury was the primary cause, and he is healthy now, maybe he hits (cleanly) like Cano did in 2020 after his injured 2019. Maybe he hits like an Adrian Gonzalez did in his late 20s. I'd then want to keep Dom - it would be a mistake not to, at least for 2022.
I am longer term concerned with his ability to stay baseball-fit. Lots of bulky guys (he has slimmed a lot but still is bulky) seem to decline faster.
I'd not be averse to thinking of trading him after 2022, and perhaps slotting Vientos at DH and keeping Pete at 1B, which is his preference. He is happier in the field. A happy Pete will hit.
I've long advocated Trading Dom, as far back as last October. With Pete entrenched at first, Dom is expendable.
ReplyDeleteSmith, Davis and McNeil are all tradeable players. The question is, what has more value to the Mets? the low return in a trade or having these players ready and available on the bench?.
ReplyDeleteViper, it all comes down to: if they move one or more of those 3, the replacements have to be perceived as an improvement. Or it is just shuffling deck chairs.
ReplyDeleteRay, a case can be made that it is too crowded at first, particularly with slugging Vientos just over the horizon.
Okay, I will say it.
ReplyDeleteIt is criminal that potential Gold Glove first baseman has to play a position he wasn't signed to play.
Trade Dom.
He deserves the chance to play where he excels.
Smith has been up and down. It is tough to predict which Dom will surface this year. He is such a solid first baseman and turned out to be a big fan favorite during his 2020 season. You don't want to just give that away in a low value trade. A few earlier comments suggested keeping him for another season as the younger players develop through the system, then evaluate a trade. I'm on board with that idea.
ReplyDeletePaul, that logic may be how the Mets roll on Smith. It looks like he'll make $3 million in 2022 - his last "cheap" year before (presumably) arbitration will start jumping up his pay..
ReplyDeleteMack, that's fair, but if they do get the DH, maybe he and Dom can split first base chores in 2022, and DH the rest. As of right now, I do not see Cano hitting enough to get much playing time, if he even gets to opening day. I don't think Cohen will have the Wilpon "if I'm paying him that much, he's playing" mentality.
ReplyDeleteProbably let McNeil and Lee be 4th and 5th outfielders with Dom as 6th when needed.
Tom, to answer your question "Am I being too harsh on Dom?" My opinion is "yes".
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot there to unlayer, but your statement "He also can play a passable outfield and a solid first base. So can Davis. So, soon, will Vientos." is ripe to take exception to. Neither Davis nor especially Vientos has shown they can play a 'solid' first base. Neither are good fielders in any poosition. That is a pretty harsh slam on Smith. And not so sure he will turn into Lucas Duda is kinda mean as well. They are too different types of players.
My feel on the 2021 Mets offense was that there was an external force that took over the entire team from Lindor to Smith to McNeil to Conforto to McCann. Without being 'in the know' my suspicion was that somehow someone got too much into the analytics of hitting and changed the team hitting approach which messed up a bunch of them.
I also don't quite see how you can be so bullish on McNeil coming back strong and Smith not.
So to keep it short, my approach is in line with Gus and Paul above and keep him for the foreseeable future and see how it shakes out. It would be a shame of Pete broke his foot in the first week of April and Davis was forced to be the starting first baseman.
I also cannot disagree with Mack and his reasoning for trading him.
But for now, I'm going to put my 10 years old kid back in place just say that he is one of, if not my favorite player on the team. I just like the guy and don't want to see him traded.
I watched some of David Ortiz's comments tonight after he was announced into the HOF and a thing he stressed was 'getting the opportunity'. That is such a key point to a lot of ball players (think Turner). That is the issue I have with Smith - where is his opportunity going to come from? I truly believe in his talent and yes, Mack, that opportunity might need to come somewhere else. Or Alonso could get hurt (hoping not), or Smith could play lights out in March and beat out Canha for starting outfielder . . . or . . . It is hard to see how this is going to play out in the end.
Saw my grandson this evening. He said he thought he read somewhere that during the 2020 year Smith batted while playing three different positions with three different results. He believes he read that Smith batted much better, resulting in his improved batting performance, while playing first base. We were able to do a little research and were not able to confirm. He believes that this was also true for Alonso - better performance if batting as the first baseman as opposed to DH.
ReplyDeleteIf someone knows where he may be able to get that information, he (we) will research.
If true. shouldn't this be considered?
He thanks for any help in trying to research/
Steev, I wondered that about Dom and how much his efforts to learn left field were affecting him at the plate. It would be hard to make that correlation because he didn't get much time at first base last year. I'm not sure what 2020 would show.
ReplyDeleteIt is possible - a little time consuming, but not hard, to do that research using their Baseball-Reference pages. The url for Dom's is ==> https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithdo02.shtml
Each player has a link to 'Game Logs' by year (near the bottom of the page) where there are a ton of stats and splits that are available.
I actually did that comparison for Alonso back in 2019 to determine if his batting stats were better as a first baseman or as a DH. I did not keep the results, but I seem to remember there was no significant difference, but without going through it again, I couldn't say for sure.