Paul Articulates – Six for three

I’m really looking forward to the start of spring training, ever hopeful that the owners and the players association can come to terms.  When it does open, the new Mets management will be looking very closely at 6 for 3.  No, not 6-4-3 as in Tinker to Evers to Chance (for you old-timers); I mean six experienced MLB veterans vying for three outfield positions.  

Assuming there are no trades before then (probably not a good assumption), we will see Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha, Jeff McNeil, JD Davis, and Dominic Smith competing for an opening day lineup slot along with some talented hopefuls that are making their way up through the minor leagues. 

One might think that after the Mets spent big money on free agent Marte that he is a lock for CF, pushing Nimmo to one of the corner slots and creating a log jam for the other positions.  But rather than jumping to conclusions, let’s look at the numbers and see how the competition shapes up.

Starling Marte has had a very successful career since he broke into the majors in 2012.  For eight years he anchored center field for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and was awarded two gold gloves and an all-star berth during his tenure.  His defensive abilities have placed him third among all active major league outfielders with 50 assists.  At the plate, he has slashed .289/.346/.451 over a 10 year career.  

In the past 2 years, he has bounced between Arizona, Miami, and Oakland but that has not affected his hitting as he accumulated 209 hits over that span for a batting average of just over .300.  

During those last two seasons, his fielding percentage was a solid .990, but the advanced metric Defensive Runs Saved shows some decline over his peak years from 2015-2017.  This might indicate some loss of range, which would be expected for a player who will be 33 years old this season (and hopefully celebrate a 34^th birthday during a Mets playoff game).

Brandon Nimmo has spent 6 years in the big leagues, all with the Mets.  His lifetime batting line of .266/.393/.445 is good, but does not reflect improvements at the plate driven by a change in his hitting philosophy.   Nimmo has always had a great batting eye, working counts and drawing many walks.  Recently though, he has begun to look for a good pitch to hit earlier in counts rather than forcing high pitch counts and waiting for a mistake.  Batting averages of .280 and .292 in the last two years reflect this change.  

In the field, Nimmo has also shown great improvement by working on his ability to track balls over his head.  This has allowed him to play a little shallower in CF so he can get to more balls that are blooped over the infield.  His fielding percentage has been consistently around .992 (his lifetime stat), but his DRS improved significantly in 2021 because he was getting to more balls.

Mark Canha was signed to a three year deal to supplement the Mets outfield.  He is touted as a versatile outfielder who can play all three positions plus first base.  His lifetime slash line is an unspectacular .244/.344/.431 and individual year stats have declined since his solid 2019 season in Oakland.  Canha has a fielding percentage of .986 in the outfield over 488 games in his 7 year MLB career.  His DRS of -11 in 2021 put him among the bottom 5 outfielders in baseball.

Jeff McNeil has spent 5 years in the big leagues with the Mets, and has been a valuable hitter in the lineup, averaging just under .300 in more than 1300 at-bats.  He had a down year in 2021 after consistent .300+ years prior, so one would project a much better 2022.  In the field he has spent more time in the infield (59% of innings played) than the outfield (41%) but he did not mesh well with Francisco Lindor last year so Buck Showalter will likely see him as an outfielder to start 2022.  

In the outfield, McNeil has proven to be capable with a lifetime fielding percentage of .971 and a positive DRS rating in each of his last 3 seasons.

J.D. Davis has also spent 5 years in the majors, with the last three in a Mets uniform.  Although he has played quite a bit of third base with the Astros and the Mets, J.D. has not shown enough leather at 3B so he projects as a left fielder where he has compiled a .974 fielding percentage over 92 games there.  J.D. makes this team with his bat, where he has slashed .288/.373/.472 with the Mets.

Dominic Smith will vie for an outfield slot as well as competing at DH and first base.  He is the best defensive first baseman on this team, but with Pete Alonso locked in as the starter Dom has shown flexibility in playing left field.  He has fielded at a .979 clip in left but has below average range and ability to go back on a ball over his head.    Mets fans are hoping for an offensive production year like Dom had in 2020 where he put up a .316/.377/.616 line.  Career offensive numbers are much lower, as he has struggled to achieve consistency. 

There are several hopefuls from the minors that will likely get spring training invitations including Kahlil Lee, Mark Vientos, Jake Magnum, Mark Vientos, Carlos Rincon, Daniel Palka, Carlos Cortes, Nick Plummer, and Mark Payton.   It is also worth noting that the Majors part of the Rule 5 draft has not been held because there is no Collective Bargaining Agreement in place.  

It is conceivable that the Mets could pick an outfielder as a rule 5 pick and then be compelled to give him a roster shot.  Of those mentioned, Palka, Payton, and Lee are the only ones with time in the majors so far and their success has been very limited so none project to be in the starting lineup to open the 2022 season.

With all this information on the table, it is time to make some projections.  My crystal ball seems to be working lately since I picked the Rams in the Super Bowl, so let’s give it a try.

1. I see Buck Showalter holding a straight-up, non-biased competition for center field.  Marte is the gold glover, Nimmo is the incumbent, and Canha has played there before.
2. I see Starling Marte winning the CF job in spring training.  Despite Nimmo’s improved defensive play, Marte still has the greatest instincts in center and can take away balls at the fence.  Nimmo will get some starts there and this will preserve Marte’s legs for the late season pitch.
3. Nimmo gets a corner OF position because the Mets need him in the lineup almost every day.  He is a table-setter with his high OBP and strong BB/K ratio.  I would love to see him add some stolen bases to his repertoire but that hasn’t been a feature of his game yet.
4. The third OF slot becomes a battle between the four remaining players considering both defensive and offensive contributions.   All things considered, I want McNeil’s bat in the lineup.  He is a capable fielder and actually has superior Defensive Runs Saved metrics.  Mark Canha shows best in standard fielding metrics with a .986 fielding percentage so he should see a lot of outfield time, and I’m sure that Showalter will be using a rotation to keep players fresh.
5. Here’s a table that looks at some meaningful statistics on the four players competing for that third OF slot. The defensive stats consider only outfield play, so although each has seen some innings in the infield those have been eliminated.  Both DRS and WAR are summed for the last three years since those advanced metrics are calculated yearly and it is not fair to use career totals when players have varying years of playing time. 

What I find interesting about the table is that defensively, J.D. Davis has 5 kills in just 59 Opportunities to Advance (OtA), which points to his powerful arm and accuracy.  In contrast, Mark Canha has played 3923 steady innings (best fielding %) in the outfield, yet only has a 1% kill rate with 3 kills in 357 OtA.  

If you are playing an aggressive base-running team, you may want Davis to gun ‘em down.  But if you are in the late innings of a close contest, you may choose to minimize the error rate with Canha.

It will be a very interesting spring training this year.  Statistics only look in the rear view mirror, so what Buck and his coaching staff see on the field will be the ultimate factor in lineup decisions.  Until then, how do you see it playing out?