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3/16/22

Reese Kaplan -- Eppler Better Not Be Finished Yet on the Pen


It seems an annual ritual for the Mets to try to bolster their anemic bullpen.  Players come and players go, but they haven't seemed to solidify the relief corps for as long as most fans can remember.  Even the ones who are guaranteed a spot -- Edwin Diaz, Trevor May, Seth Lugo and Miguel Castro -- have all had their inconsistencies which lead to less than full confidence by many folks when they enter a game in a critical spot.  

In the past the Mets have embraced the over-the-hill relievers available as inexpensive free agents or as low cost trade targets who at one time were respectable and dependable, but over the years saw their stat sheets rife with a high number of walks, a home run barrage or other pitching misdeeds that led to WHIP numbers that make you break into a bad sweat just reading them.  

The other approach they've tried is to force feed youngsters from the minors into roles they have not customarily played while failing as starters.  There is a learning curve behind this type of skill reassignment, but there is seldom the time nor patience necessary to let it happen.  In other words, a veteran can get pummeled and he's "working things out" or "adjusting to the environment" while the newcomers to the majors are "in over their heads" or "not prepared to face this level of competition."  

Then there is the AAAA approach where the team takes players who have never really established themselves consistently in the majors and now at age 30 or above are capable of handling some innings in support of the others.  This group of players have enough experience to adapt to middle relief, multi-inning assignments and even to function as the occasional opener for managers who deploy relievers into this new-fangled role.  


With new GM Billy Eppler in charge for 2022, the Mets have thus far only secured the services of Adam Ottavino.  At age 36, he's on the tail end of a mostly decent career, but you'd think watching trends needs to be a part of the evaluation process for potential success going forward.  When you take a look at Ottavino's recent numbers, it's not very pretty.  

While he is 32-31 with a decent 3.60 ERA for his career, he tends to swing wildly from one extreme to the other.  He's turned in some fantastic years such as 2018 for the Colorado Rockies and 2019 for the New York Yankees when he delivered ERAs of 2.43 and 1.90 respectively while appearing in 75 and 73 games.  That's the kind of pitcher who could be a solution to a problem.  

Unfortunately, he preceded that stunning two year period with a horrific 5.06 ERA for the Rockies in 2018.  Then he followed it up with a 2020 pitching to a 5.89 ERA for the Yankees and then 4.21 last season for the Red Sox.  Lately he's been walking 5 batters per 9 IP and his WHIP is certainly cringe-worthy.  Now perhaps Eppler felt his declining ERA was a signal that he's ready to rediscover whatever worked in the past.  More likely it was the $4 million salary which was a more than 50% drop from the $9 million per year he took home from 2019 through 2021 and the $7 million he earned for the Rockies in 2018.  

The feedback from fans on the acquisition has ranged from positive to "meh", but no one was out-rightly hostile about it.  We paid for more for far less (think Jeurys Familia, for example).  The bigger issue for fans is that the missing white whale in both the starting rotation and the relief corps was someone who is a southpaw.  The pitchers on the Mets are exclusively right handed.  Everyone simply assumed the Mets would be focused on adding lefties.  


Now there's been a lot of talk about possibilities, including Andrew Chafin, Chasen Shreve and Tony Watson.  Most people are leaning heavily in the direction of Chafin who in 2021 pitched in 71 games with a stellar WHIP and an ERA below 2.00.  The 32 year old has never earned north of $3 million and although he's due a big raise, it's not going to break the bank.  

The bargain bin choices of Shreve who once played for the Mets and Watson who has played for four teams over his 11-year career both would seem to be available in the $2 million or so range.  Shreve has never been above $1 million and Watson has only at $1 million for the Angels a year ago.  Of the two, Shreve lately has the better ERA but struggles with his control.  Watson has had his ups and downs, but a career ERA of 2.90 and walking just 2.4 per 9 IP is very appealing.  

Any of these three lefties would be a nice addition.  Personally I would have advocated for two lefties and bypassed the Ottavino option, but high strikeout numbers are often so alluring that front offices will overlook everything else.   

3 comments:

  1. I just wonder when "done" is done in Cohenville. Will he spend more to add to the pen? We'll soon find out. I think he is so rich that if it makes a discernible difference, he will spend (of course, he can also trade).

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  2. The problem with most relievers is that they do produce those pendulum swings. Other than Mariano Rivera, there are very few relievers who are just consistently good, especially in the game today. Most even have month-to-month swings or a couple bad outings which can really throw the season numbers out of whack.

    I haven't done the deep dive into Ottavino's 2021 year, but the words I have heard were 'rediscovered success in Boston'. His overall numbers do not show that, but there may be some really good, some bad, and some really ugly mixed in to get the overall 'meh' numbers.

    But, like you, I would rather have seen a couple of lefties in the mix rather than add another righty with a major league contract.

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  3. Chafin goes to the Tigers, and the Mets agree to a deal with Shreve.

    Bob W.

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