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3/28/22

Reese Kaplan -- The Rumor Mill is Churning Out Mets Pablum...


Sometimes people seem to live and die by the power of the rumor mill.  Whether it's musicians, actors, politicians, business executive or athletes, the fact is that a hot rumor is like adrenaline for both the barfly and the legitimate media.  Come on...we all have to confess having fallen prey to the tiniest tidbits of so-called legitimate data to go dancing down the aisles (or ready to head for the pitchforks and torches).  


This weekend was no different.  There were two Mets-related bits that crept up in the media coverage that caused just this kind of fervor both good and bad.  The first one concerned the Mets front office finally making gestures towards solid free agent lefty reliever Tony Watson.  At this stage of his career, Watson is likely looking at the $1.5 million or so annual paycheck.  All he's done to deserve it is bank a career-long ERA of 2.90.  Yeah, I think a lefty reliever who has that big a track record of success would slot in nicely in Queens.  I've advocated him in the past and given how close the season is to starting (less than 2 weeks away), the fact he's still available suggests people are either scared off by his age or his subpar 2021 performance.  For the Mets, he'd be the veteran lefty to help since the others in-house -- Chasen Shreve and Alex Claudio -- have combined for only about half as many games as the former Pirate, Dodger and Giant who is still seeking a new job. 


The stranger one from a well known Internet troll suggested that the Mets are working towards a two-year contract with the unwanted Michael Conforto who has had no suitors coming off his disastrous 2021 season.  He turned down the QO at the behest of his greedy agent and now finds the 2022 season about to begin with his entrance to the ballpark requiring a ticket just like the rest of us.  Apparently the purported offer is for $20 million combined for two seasons.  The $10 million annual salary is less than he earned for 2021.  The deal allegedly includes an opt-out after 2022 which he would surely exercise if he rebounded productively.  The price seems laughingly low but probably fair given the late state of the preseason and his long history of injuries plus last year's offensive results.  Personally I don't see how he really fits into the mix as Mark Canha would become a very expensive 4th outfielder, plus it would take AB opportunities away from the far less expensive Dom Smith and J.D. Davis.  

For the Mets, there's still roster work to be done.  No one is completely satisfied with the potential holes in the productivity that can be expected from the catcher position, the second base position, the DH position and even Mark Canha.  No one is completely sold on Starling Marte's sudden recovery but his track record suggests it was just an unfortunately timed injury and not something chronic (though we have all seen misdiagnosed and mistreated oblique injuries linger for months at a time).  

Pitching, of course, remains the primary concern for most people.  Carlos Carrasco in his first preseason game did nothing to dissuade folks from their hammers and nails in his playing day coffin given how badly he delivered last year.  Taijuan Walker finally made it to the mound and was good in his brief two-inning stint.  A few spare parts like Tylor Megill and David Peterson have flashed some good moments as well.  


The bullpen, however, is still very much a work in progress.  After Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Miguel Castro and Trevor May it's a mystery who's going to make up the innings eaten by Aaron Loup, Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman and others.  I can only hope for the best from Adam Ottavino, but his last better-than-average seasons were in 2018 and 2019 playing for the Rockies and the Yankees.  His problem has always been the base on balls and for his career while he averages 10.4 strikeouts per 9 IP, he also gives away 4.1 walks over the same interval.  Drew Smith is a welcome return but he's only been in 66 games for his entire career which has been marred by injury.  Shreve and Claudio have been decent for middle relievers but no one is approaching what Loup delivered in 2021. 

It's a long season that includes 162 games.  Between streaks, slumps and injuries no one knows exactly what will happen, but here's hoping the front office is paying attention this time.

11 comments:

  1. Let's hope Carrasco is not washed up - that would be bad. Let's hope Bassitt ain't nuthin' but a Hound Dog when it comes to sniffing out wins.

    I watched a few innings yesterday - I like Marte a lot more than Conforto. Not sure Michael is a fit here anymore, although if he takes $5MM...

    After much investigating, Holmes likes Watson for the Mets pen very much. We, of course, won't need the Mets pen much, since Max Scherzer will be tossing 30 complete games this year. Eleven innings in his first 2 spring outings - remarkable.

    deGrom for some reason just looks BIGGER to me on the mound. Hitters beware.

    Nido with best framing rate in baseball - and 2 HRs this spring (one off Carrasco) - maybe when Alvarez is ready, Nido stays and McCann goes?

    I want to see Megill in the rotation - period.

    Lindor looks ready - but he looked ready last spring training too.

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  2. Josh Hader is still a freak - this spring, 6 batters faces, 6 strikeouts. He'd look good in the Mets' pen.

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  3. Khalil Lee - he had a .450 on base % in AAA last year, despite high strikeouts, in part due to huge #s of HBP.

    But, in last year's spring training, and this year's, and in last year's cup of coffee with the Mets when the outfield was injured, he is a combined 2 for 40 with 25 Ks. Koosman hit better than that.

    I wonder where he fits longer term - I thought he might have a shot at the opening day roster, but his Ks are sheer murder - I'd rank the depth outfielders right now as Jankowski; Mangum; Plummer; and Lee, in that order. If we could get Conforto very cheap for one season, it might make sense. But Conforto might not play much.

    Conforto is awful against lefties in his career - .227/.315/.380. But vs. righties? .265/.371/.502. I'd take that and just never use him against lefties. The incentive for him? A real shot at a world championship.

    I'd probably look to dump the elderly Cano, freeing up a lot of ABs, and ask Michael to do one year where he'd perhaps play just 100 games, but have a shot at a ring and a better contract in 2023 elsewhere. I think Cano will be mediocre at best - expunge the declining Cano. Thoughts?

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  4. I would welcome lefty Watson with open arms - just what the Mets need!
    I agree with Tom that Marte looked really good yesterday. I was impressed with his baserunning and his quickness to the ball playing right field for the first time. He will make this team more exciting.
    I'm also very excited about Lindor's game yesterday. His swing looks great and he squared up balls from both sides of the plate!
    LGM!

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  5. How did we let Loup get away for 2 for 17 million? He was our best pitcher last year (sorry Jake but you only pitched half a year). I'll give them till the season opener to fix this but I just don't get it.

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  6. I just hope the loss of Thor and Loup isn't the difference between winning it all and not.

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  7. I think Loup got away while the Mets were playing musical chairs with UK candidates. If Eppler was in place in early November, Loup gets re-signed.

    Bob W.

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  8. I am a little surprised at the lack of love (like) for Canha. His last 3 seasons, equivalent of 2 full 162 game seasons, 1100 official ABs, he walked 181 times, was HBP a crazy high 55 times, 50 doubles, 9 triples, 48 HRs, 205 runs scored, and 19 of 23 in steals. On base % around .380. Me? That impresses me a lot, regardless of whether his average is a little low. I have a feeling this guy is more of a winner than Conforto. I want him in Queens.

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  9. And...as great as Loup was last season, he is 34 years, 3 months old come opening day. For some reason, he has just 1 inning this spring, 2 runs, 3 hits.

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  10. I agree with you Tom..Loup will regress bigly in this contract.

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