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4/30/22

Mack - Mock Draft v3.0 - Pick 1.31 - RHP - Peyton Pallette

 


Peyton Pallette 

RHP      6-1     175     Arkansas 

2021 Arkansas stat line - 15-G, 11-starts, 1-2, 4.02, 56-IP, 67-K

 

2-11-22 - https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-draft-prospects-2022-ranking-top-50-players-in-the-class-with-termarr-johnson-at-no-1/?s=03 - 

28. Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas 

Pallette recently underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his season before it could begin. He remains a candidate to go early in the draft based on the combination of his upside and teams' confidence in drafting rehabbing pitchers. One scout said a healthy Pallette had as much swing-and-miss stuff as any collegiate arm in this year's class. His fastball touched into the upper-90s and he complemented it with a plus breaking ball and a workable changeup. Pallette's delivery might remind some of Jeremy Hellickson's, and he throws enough strikes from it to project as a mid-rotation starter. Provided teams are comfortable with the progress he's made in his rehab, he should become an option for teams beginning late in the first round.

 

2-10-22 - https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2022-mlb-mock-draft-version-10/?s=03 -

 28. Astros — Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas 

Carlos’ take: This will be the first time the Astros have made a first-round pick since 2019, when the team took California catcher Korey Lee at No. 32 overall. It might be tricky to get a feel for what this Houston regime wants to do in the draft, but I imagine it is going to be pretty analytically inclined and Pallette’s pitch mix might be exciting for Houston. If he’s healthy, it’d be hard to see him being available in this range so this could be great value. 

Scout’s take: Pallette was considered the college arm with the best curveball before the injury. He still has the potential to be a future starter after he recovers, and if the Astros are patient they will see real value in this pick once Pallette is healthy.

 

1-15-22 - https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2022-mlb-draft-top-100-prospects/ - 

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Last: 13

Peyton Pallette

Arkansas RHP

Notes:

Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 180 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.2 

After pitching out of the bullpen in 2020, Pallette transitioned to a starting role in 2021 with Arkansas and posted a 4.02 ERA over 56 innings. He has one of the more interesting pitch data profiles in the 2022 class with a three-pitch mix that excites many analysts. His fastball sat in the 93-95 mph range last spring and touched 99 with reportedly impressive induced vertical break numbers. However, his delivery isn’t the most deceptive and he has a clean release with below-average extension that could be questionable attributes overall. He throws a 79-81 mph curveball with excellent spin rates in the 3,100-rpm range and generated whiffs with the pitch 44% of the time last spring, per Synergy. Pallette also throws a firm changeup in the 87-89 mph range with a 1,600 rpm spin rate and plenty of horizontal, arm side movement that generates plenty of whiffs and groundouts. Durability and health are questions that teams have with Pallette. He isn’t the most physical pitcher with a 6-foot-1, 180-pound frame and he has only 61.2 total innings on his resume. Pallette won't be able to add to that total this spring, as a UCL injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery wipes out his 2022 season.

 

1-20-22 - Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB 

Brutal news coming out of Fayetteville this morning via Kendall Rogers with RHP Peyton Pallette going under the knife with Tommy John Surgery. 

Get well soon, kid. 

Pallette ranks No. 18 on our @ProspectsLive Top 300 

 

1-17-22 - https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/future-four-2022-draft-eligible-righthanders-to-know/?s=03 - 

Peyton Pallette, RHP Arkansas 

Entering the 2022 college season, few players have higher expectations than that of Arkansas’ Peyton Pallette. Rated as our No. 3 pitcher in the 2022 draft, the righthander is looking to cement his place as the best draft-eligible pitcher in the country with a strong season. 

A highly-rated in-state recruit for the Razorbacks out of Benton High, Palette made four appearances out of the bullpen in his pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, allowing only one earned run over the course of 5.1 innings of work. 

Heading into 2021, Pallette earned an early role in the Razorbacks’ rotation, making 11 starts over the course of the season, including a three-week stint as the Friday night starter. Unfortunately, he dealt with injuries throughout the season and spent time bouncing between the bullpen and weekend rotation throughout March and April. 

Pallette returned to make six more in-conference starts, before injuring his elbow during a relief outing against Florida late in the season. MRIs taken in the immediate aftermath of the injury showed no damage to his ulnar collateral ligament. Reports that Pallette was once again throwing last fall have led to optimism he’ll be ready to go for the start of 2022. 

Average in height but small in stature, Pallette has a similar build to Dodgers righthander Walker Buehler. He has a well-conditioned and athletic frame that lacks significant projection due to a lack of potential physicality. What Pallette may lack in sheer size he makes up for with power.

 A hard thrower who has been clocked as high as 99 mph, Pallette manages to generate plus fastball velocity with an easy and free operation. Blessed with plus arm speed, he delivers the ball from a moderate arm action leading to a high three-quarters arm slot with a cross-body finish. While his mechanics are aesthetically pleasing to watch, he lacks deception on his release, making his premium stuff far easier to time than it should. 

Pallette works primarily off his fastball and curveball. His fastball accounts for a majority of his pitch usage. He threw it 66% of the time in 2021. The pitch sits 93-95 mph and touches 97-99 on occasion, with above-average raw spin rates in the 2,300-2,400 rpm range 

While the pitch packs premium velocity and above-average spin, Palette’s spin-induced efficiency isn’t high enough to turn his higher raw spin into ride. This is a bit of a problem. When coupled with his higher release height, shorter extension and easy-to-time arm action, Pallette’s fastball plays well below his actual velocity, with its perceived velocity appearing more like 91-92 mph than his actual 93-95. He has a bad combination of generic release traits and a lack of ride. 

This helps explain why a pitcher sitting 93-95 mph induced whiffs at a 19% rate last season. Pallette doesn’t induce a ton of weak groundball contact either. His groundball rate on his four-seamer is well below 40%. Hitters didn’t do tremendous damage against the pitch, but they still hit .261/.363/.333 in at-bats ending with a four-seamer over the course of the 2021 season. 

All is not lost for Pallette’s fastball. His tilt and spin direction are fairly clean, and his raw spin and velocity are there. Slight tweaks to improve spin efficiency could deliver improved whiff numbers against his four-seam. 

For as many questions as there might be around Pallette’s fastball quality, there are few surrounding his breaking ball. His 11-5 curveball is a banger that sits 78-80 mph with more than 3,000 rpm of raw spin and heavy two-plane break. It’s a plus, bat-missing curveball that generated whiffs at a rate of 44%. 

Unfortunately, it generated a lower swing rate in large part due to his fringe-average command of the pitch. When batters did swing they either swung and missed or did very little damage. Opposing batters hit just .167/.222/.167 against the pitch with a 76% groundball rate. An uptick in command could pay dividends, particularly if Pallette shows the ability to land the pitch to the lower glove-side quadrant. 

His changeup is a firm, high-80s offering with around 5-6 mph of separation from the fastball and relatively straight shape. The pitch was only used around 10% of the time in 2021 but did generate a solid whiff rate. The command of the pitch is very fringy as he’s still learning his best feel for the offspeed. It’s a usable offering, but a work in progress. 

It’s easy to watch Pallette throw a ball and fall for his butter-smooth operation, velocity and feel for spin. For all of his strengths, there’s an equal amount of warts from fastball shape issues, to command, to a checkered injury history. He offers mid-rotation traits as well as questions about how much improvement is possible in pro ball after one of the best pitching development schools in the country couldn’t fully optimize his fastball.

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