PC: Ed Delany
NO, I'M NOT BACK, OK? ANYWAY...
I just couldn't help but want to write about "the guy"...
I recently wrote the following:
"Francisco Alvarez? Gosh darn, though, his first two AA games? A huge 3 run blast, a double that is a HR in Citifield, another double to the base of the wall in right center, and an absolute Piazza rocket just to the right of center that, if the stands didn't intrude, might have gone 475 feet."
"See you THIS YEAR in Queens, Francisco."
Oh, I forgot - he hit his 3rd HR in 3 games Tuesday night, a 3 run shot, giving him 7 RBIs in 3 games, including 2 doubles 3 HRs and a single. He is ready to skip AAA and go directly to AAAA.
Some folks automatically think like Mets fans have been conditioned to think - as in "let's not rush the kid, see you in 2024, etc."
To which I reply - Poppycock.
This guy is not out of the normal mold. Yes, we've never had any hitters we could rush up, because all came out of the "normal mold." Not Francisco.
Neither was Juan Soto.
Juan Soto tore up the lower minors at 18, then tore up A ball for 31 game and AA for all of 8 games at age 19 - then, voila!
He became a Washington Nationals major league slugger instantaneously.
The truly great hitters do stuff like that.
I think Francisco is one of those hitters. 60 years, and we finally got one.
Yes, he didn't hit as well in 2021 as Soto did at age 18 - but don't forget the Brooklyn effect, the place where fly balls go to die.
Here are excerpts of an article I did several months ago on Alvarez, focusing on the Brooklyn hitter-inhibiting effect, and adjusting for it:
Francisco Alvarez, the 19 year old wunderkind, has played most of his season in Brooklyn.
How is Francisco hitting? Thru last Tuesday, as I write this:
At home, overall, .228/.352/.503.
On the road, which is probably a far more accurate barometer of his hitting acumen:
.313/.418/.591.
Incredible numbers on the road. Kind of what you'd expect from someone like, say, Hall of Fame catcher Mike Piazza.
Remembering that most hitters hit better at home than on the road - except in gale-force Brooklyn.
Imagine what his #'s would look like if he played in a friendly-to-hitters home park, not one hostile to hitters??
And not just him. One more - Ronny Mauricio has to be thrilled to be out of Brooklyn, starting out strongly in AA since his recent promo. What are his overall home/away slash lines in 2021?
Home? .218/.269/.355
Road? .270/.320/.536
Ah, heck, I'll give you one more:
Luke Ritter, all season in purgatory - err, I mean Brooklyn:
Home? .200/.292/.240
Road? .252/.325/.561
Brooklyn is clearly anathema to hitters.
So, when looking at Alvarez, I decided I would just double his road numbers for a better read on his offensive prowess.
If you doubled his road numbers, you'd get:
.313/.418/.591...and...
352 at bats, 20 doubles, 26 HRs, and 76 RBIs.
Over 500 at bats at that pace, 30 doubles, 37 HRs, 110 RBIs.
You know, Piazza stuff. I think Piazza II, otherwise known as Francisco the Great, is in advanced gestation and may show up in Citifield with his very loud bat late in 2022.
So tell me - does this give you another perspective on Alvarez's lethality?
Alvarez needs to be strong enough, catching-wise, clearly. Soto could just go and play defense in the outfield, a less integral defensive position.
But if Alvarez's first 39 games this year are anything like his first 2 have been, see you - SOON - in Queens, Francisco.
Also, Baty and Mauricio are off to hot AA starts. Binghamton is the fun place to be in 2022. While the trio are still there.
DELIGHTED: Let me say that I am DELIGHTED about one minor leaguer in the early going...one I've called out in prior seasons for striking out way too much in the past...Sherveyn Newton. Back in St Lucie, and now 22, he has been up 15 times....6 hits and 3 walks...and zero Ks. WOW! And 3 of those hits are doubles.
And before I go, Matt Winaker smacked a AA grand slam, to tie Pete Alonso with one, and JT Schwartz had a single, double and HR for Brooklyn the other night. JT wants Pete's job, at least that is what I'm guessing. He'll also take JD Davis' or DJ Lemahieu's job if someone offers it. It only comes down to having the right initials, at the end of the day, at least that's what J.R. Ewing told me.
B.J. Upton retired too soon for JT Schwartz, unfortunately. But my initial impressions of JT are good. Go, JT, go.
LASTLY:
19 year old Alex Ramirez, who was very impressive last year at age 18, has started the season 12 for 21 with St. Lucie. Another incredible young dude, and my guess, a soon-coming future Mets' outfield star. Is 2023 too soon?
Tom you remember Godfather 3 when Pacino says "just when I thought I was out they pulled me back in" so Tom you just have to except your back in and we love you for it. Alvarez The Great works for me and the thought that we could have offense at the catcher position excites me as McCan't and Nido are awful and didn't we go to the WS with Mike as a not great defensive catcher and now he can also DH.
ReplyDeleteGary, the allure of dropping an occasional article seems more irresistible than I thought, but I remain crazy busy, so it will remain sporadic.
ReplyDeleteYou are right - our two catchers sadly left their bats in a termites' nest, and the result so far is 4 for 24, one RBI - in other words, they are picking up where they left off in 2021.
I would give Francisco 40 games in the minors, rather than Soto's 39, and re-assess the situation. Might be that by then, he will be proving he can already far outhit the two dunderheads in Queens.
FYI - Mazeika isn't hitting - but then again, the entire AAA team is offensively comatose. Their pitching is ghastly too - I really hoped Orz would be a quickly viable MLB reliever, but it has not been a happy March/April for him. He may just need more time, having just signed last year, a season he pitched very well in.
Alvarez is racking up more hits than this article SMH
ReplyDeleteLove when you pop in Tom, we need 2 out of our 4 (alverez, baty, vientos,or Maurico) to really be productive guys, With Lindor, degrom, Max and other high priced players we need to offset their salaries with Low cost internal options,
ReplyDeleteHey ghost writer in the sky.
ReplyDeleteI expect Alvy in Syracuse by the all-star game
This will give B prospect added AA games.
Past that, could be Sept DH candidate depending on injuries or output.
I'm hoping he ends up being like Conforto getting called up around the break in 2015... assuming he keeps hitting the way he started off (I think he's ceiling is much higher than Conforto both in terms of straight offensive comparison which is further enhanced by the fact he's a catcher.
ReplyDeleteI'm really high on this guy. I'm wondering if we have a shot at seeing Baty later this year as well. I really like escobar but I think with the DH room can be made for Baty if we trade / release one or more of Davis, Cano, or Dom Smith depending on their performance.
Dan B
ReplyDeleteMy take on Baty is he will need all of 2022 to be ready. Why? His K rate is high. Work to lower that so he does not "go Kelenic" on us.
Ronny Mo? He is a wild card - he could surge. He does not walk enough, and he feels like Amed Rosario with more power. Probably all of 2022 for him as well.
Vientos (and Lee) are off to SLOW starts in AAA. But Vientos started slow in AA last year, before he lit some rocket fuel starting about 3 weeks in.
Alvarez's arrival is a function of injuries and how dismal (or not) the current catchers' hitting continues to be. For those who know Megill's story last year, I believe given the right circumstances that Alvarez could arrive as soon as June if needed.
Ramirez?? Very young, but flashing some elite hitting skills. 12 for 21 doesn't grow on trees.
Eddie, I think all 5 (Alvarez, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio, and Ramirez) will be good to REALLY good MLB players beginning sometime this year. Ramirez may be the latest to arrive, but I think he arrives by late 2023. He GOT TOOLS. He hit .260 at age 18 in his debut season in low A. So impressive to be able to do that.
ReplyDeleteSimon Juan? 2026, anyone? Stanley Consuegra is off to a good start with Lucie too - lots of people liked him, and when I see strong starts, I begin to pay attention.
After hearing about Vlad Jr and his monster night last night it got me thinking. Missing out on many amateur free agents like Vlad or Soto or Tatis for example was it because of the Wilpon effect or were they really scouting in the international mkt and just missed out.
ReplyDeleteHow about sneaking in one more DH spot in the lineup?
ReplyDelete