Reese Kaplan -- Pitching Woes Are More Than a 2022 Problem

As the Mets are navigating the hospital ward with seemingly half their players, you can't turn left or right without running into someone proclaiming what they must do by the trading deadline to fix the IL problem. While the thought about addressing the open issues is certainly a valid one, the Mets need to be thinking not just about 2022 but about 2023 and beyond as well.  

Just as a refresher, the Mets rotation come 2023 includes Chris Bassitt with his in-season odd contract option.  Based upon both the way he's performed and his attitude that's a very good thing indeed.

Next comes the injured Max Scherzer.  His career has been almost completely healthy and one hopes that the current malady is just a temporary thing as a result of overexertion and an age where injuries are simply more likely to occur.  No one is questioning his ability on the mound

Now it starts to get a little more hazy.  Taijuan Walker is pitching like the first half All Star the team saw during 2021 and if he can remain healthy he's a viable member of anyone's rotation.  He has a contract that says for 2023 the player has a $6 million option if he chooses to exercise it or the Mets have a $3 million buyout if they choose to go in that direction.  If Walker can put together another 20 starts there's no reason for the Mets even to ponder their option.  They need pitching.  At $6 million for the ability Walker is showing that's a no brainer if ever there was one.

Next on the rotation carousel is the on again/off again Carlos Carrasco.  The man has shown enough ability during parts of this season that he's proving why he was a significant part of that Cleveland trade.  However, he's also had some starts that were Thomas Szapucki ugly, too.  Right now he's sporting an impressive sounding 5-1 record but with a rather lofty 3.98 ERA which is higher than his norm.  The team holds a 2023 option on him at a rather hefty $14 million.  Steve Cohen has not shown himself to be averse to spending money, but you do have to remember that there will be other pitcher options if they want to go in another direction.  They buyout is $3 million, so you'd have to spend $11 million or more to equal out what it would cost to exercise his $14 million option.  If he stays healthy and can lower the ERA a tad he's likely a Met next year as well.

Then there are the unproven-for-the-long-term pitchers who have shown flashes of brilliance but have their own checkered minor and major league pasts as well as decent but not overwhelming minor league numbers.  Tylor Megill was on the road to becoming everyone's under-the-radar fan favorite when he was pitching like an ace until that last start which resulted in his current assignment to the IL.  As a minor leaguer Megill was split between the rotation and the pen, pitching to a 9-10 record over 41 games with a 3.41 ERA.  The shining spotlight in his game was the 12 strikeouts per 9 IP.  He's definitely worth keeping around at a bargain price as we have seen injuries becoming a regular occurrence throughout the rest of the staff.

Southpaw David Peterson is currently 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA but pitching to a major league 4.20 ERA for his short career.  As a minor leaguer he was always a starter and pitched to a losing 12-17 record with a respectable but not eye popping 3.66 ERA.  Given the Mets dearth of lefties to throw the ball and his minimal cost he's also likely to be kept around as well.

All of this analysis actually hinges on the injured scapula of one two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom who holds an opt-out clause in his current player contract.  He's been up front about exercising it and while there's something to be said for loyalty to the organization where you've found all of your success, the fact is many players simply go off in quest of the highest bidder.  Right now deGrom earns $35 million which is below what new teammate Max Scherzer gets.  Although deGrom has said it would be "really cool" to spend his entire career in a Mets uniform, the fact is he will likely get $40 million per season offers which could force the Mets to up their contract considerably which is actually slated to drop to $32.5 for the next season and optional following season.  You have to assume that the possibility of deGrom leaving (or being injured) is quite real and address your pitching needs accordingly.

That brings us back to the very issue of trade deadline targets for the Mets to consider now.  Unlike rent-a-player deals like Javier Baez, the Mets really need to look at who could be here in 2023 as well.  For all of the names being thrown about as possibilities (including guys DFA'd or who are out of baseball like Bartolo Colon), the number one man who should be on their list is Frankie Montas of the Oakland A's.  He's getting better and better, would be around for 2023 and is earning modest money.  It would take a bundle to get him and this time around the Mets might want to offer up a seemingly unbalanced package of guys like Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis, Brett Baty and pick a few minor leaguers from column B.  Yes, it's a lot to pay but it would be great insurance against injuries or free agent departures.