Reese Kaplan -- He's Good When Available...Nimmo's Future

Every now and then a player gets unfairly crucified by the fans and media when he is drafted early based upon very little track record in high school or college.  Back in 2011 with Sandy Alderson at the helm the Mets used (some say squandered) their first round pick on a little known player by the name of Brandon Nimmo who didn't have an organized baseball progression in the mold of other prospects.  He did show some power and speed but it seemed to be a mighty odd use of such a high pick for someone who didn't even play high school baseball as his home state of Wyoming didn't offer it. 

 

As he worked his way up through the Mets minor league system he frankly hadn't done a whole lot to change people's minds.  In his opening minor league campaign of 2012 he hit .248 with 6 HRs and 42 RBIs -- not bad but certainly not what you'd expect from a number one draft pick.  His draft position pretty much guaranteed he'd be getting a lot of at-bats, so he continued his way up the ladder.

In 2013 it appeared for awhile that Nimmo was going to make Alderson look very good as he made the league All Star squad as well as the Futures game with his hot start having him swinging to the tune of a .447 batting average but he plummeted back to earth by year's end, finishing at .273 with more than a strikeout per game.  He only hit 2 HRs for the season (though to be fair the Savannah ballpark is death on power hitting), and drove in just 40.  It was also the first year where an injury plagued Nimmo with a wrist issue causing him to be held out of several games.

In 2014 it seemed as if Nimmo finally kicked things into gear.  He started off with Port St. Lucie hitting well and again earning All Star honors and was bumped up to Binghamton mid year.  He finished the 2014 with a combined .278, 10 HRs and 51 RBIs.  While not exactly sizzling, the numbers were indeed solid and Alderson probably breathed a bit easier after the negative press that resulted since making the Nimmo first round selection.

2015 was a bit of a crazy year for Nimmo, beginning in Port St. Lucie, moving again to Binghamton and ending it in Las Vegas.  Nimmo again was bitten by the injury bug, first with a knee injury and later with a ball to the face on a foul tip swing.  Still, the progress in his hitting was evident and the Mets looked like they might have a major leaguer on their hands.

In 2016 he got his first taste of the big league when he was brought in to support the outfield after Michael Conforto went into a long hitting tailspin.  In Las Vegas Nimmo was raking to a .328 AVG with 5 HRs and 37 RBIs in just 250 ABs, so he looked like he was ready to move up. 

Unfortunately, after a solid debut he was hitting just .235 after 51 ABs and was demoted until Juan Lagares' injury forced the Mets to promote him once again.  He finished the year on a bit of an upswing with an ending batting average of .274.

His 2017 and 2018 seasons were showing improvement, particularly after the hitting coaches changed his stride which enabled him to generate more power.  Injuries and illnesses again sidetracked the man including various leg and hamstring issues, but it was a collapsed lung that kept him out for awhile.  His 2018 season was by far his longest in the majors, hitting .263 with 17 HRs and 47 RBIs.  On a positive side, his OBP rose to an enviable .404 with very appealing numbers for slugging and OPS.  On the bad side, however, were his 140 Ks which seemed a bit excessive for a leadoff type of hitter. 

The problems with Nimmos frequent injuries continued in 2019, 2020, 2021 and again now in 2022.  You name the body part and Nimmo has probably been felled by problems with it.  Overall for this four year period he only put up about two years worth of ABs, hitting .273 with 27 HRs and 92 RBIs.  Those numbers would be fantastic if they happened in 500 ABs but it took over 1000 to reach that level and you have to factor in missing about two full seasons to his various IL stints.

All of this context is important to consider as Nimmo approaches free agency at year's end.  He want from a first round draft pariah to a fan favorite through hard work and an innate ability to work pitchers.  His sprints to first base after receiving a walk draw applause from the stands and he's improved significantly as an outfielder.

The question is should the Mets reward this part time decent but not fantastic player with an expensive free agent contract?  Do they allow him to get a QO in the $18 million range?  It wouldn't seem his output is commensurate with that pay grade.  Or do they simply let him walk away with nothing in compensation whatsoever and let another team enjoy him while he plays while suffering through the many stints when he is unable to do so?

Going into 2023 the Mets have two of the three outfield positions sewn up with Starling Marte and Mark Canha.  Depending on what they decide to do with Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme, that third outfield position could go to Jeff McNeil.  That brings back the issue of just how much Nimmo is worth given his injury history and his OBP being his primary calling card?  My guess is they will attempt to keep him but at a rate in the lower end of the teens per year.  Any more salary demands at a higher level would seem to be a risky business decision.  If he goes on to flourish elsewhere, bully for him.  You do, however, have to consider the prudence of tying up a lot of long term dollars on someone who's essentially a part-time player.