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6/24/22

The Mack Report - Friday, June 24th



 First up, yesterday, we talked about the Mets bullpen. Today, I wanted to look at the current ERA of all the lefties in both Syracuse and Binghamton, in case I might have missed someone. 

Now I'm just stating the ERA here. I don’t consider it perfectly shows the ability of a pitcher, what with inherited runs and all that. And Tom can give you the strikeout ratio while the analytical guys on the site can breakout the percentage of sliders hit foul outside third base, on a cloudy day. 

Me? Well, if you ain’t able to control the amount of runs cross the plate when you are pitching, you have a problem on my team. 

So, through Tuesday’s games: 


Syracuse: 

Alex Claudio 15-G 3.80

Nate Fisher 16-G 4.43

Mike Montgomery 12-G 6.90 (IL)

Locke St. John 14-G 5.06

Thomas Szapucki 11-G 3.38

Josh Walker 21-G 3.73 (IL)

Rob Zastrysmy 13-G 4.25 


Binghamton: 

Anthony Edwards 12-G 4.50

Andrew Mitchell 15-G 5.48

 

I remember the days you promoted minor league pitchers when they had ERA’s like 1.50. The best we can do here is two guys, Claudio and the starter Szapucki, with a stat under 4..00. 

Any questions?

 

SNY put out their first 2022 mock draft this week here - 

Mets picks in the first round: 

11. Mets – 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech 

Jung is the younger brother of Texas Rangers prospect Josh Jung. He may have one of the stranger pre-swing set-ups you will see, but he gets the bat through the zone in plenty of time with good bat speed. He is an all-field hitter who projects to hit for both average and power. He walked more than he struck out in college and had a career slash line of .328/.467/.647. His future defensive home is a question, but whoever drafts him likely sends him out as a second baseman and adjusts potentially to the outfield if necessary. Some other names I have heard linked to the Mets early on are Jett Williams, Justin Crawford, Connor Prielipp, and Daniel Susac. 


14. Mets – RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS (GA) 

The Mets can go a lot of ways with their five picks in the top 90. It is clear they could use pitching in their system, but some scouts believe the smart play would be to take bats in the first and load up on arms after Round 1, where there will be depth in high school pitching and the ability to dip into the college arms coming off injury who otherwise would have gone higher. The counterpoint would be that with the extra picks and bonus pool, the Mets might be the team best set up to take the risk on Lesko. It would be the first time they have used a true first round pick on a high school arm since Scott Kazmir in 2002. 

Lesko likely would have ranked inside of the top four prospects for me on my board, and would've been the best prep pitcher I have seen since MacKenzie Gore. However, he left a start with forearm tightness and underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of April. This would likely push his pro debut into mid-summer 2023. When healthy, he has a plus fastball that will touch 97 mph and the best changeup in the class. He was showing flashes with his curveball before the injury. You want to take a swing at a potential frontline arm? This is that swing.

 

Mack - I would put one of Mrs. Mack’s dresses on and go to a biker's bar if this turned out to be true. 

Jung is the top pure second baseman that can also play third and Lesko was easily the top pitcher in this draft before he went down for TJS. 

He is worth waiting until 2024, but only if the Mets do their injury physical on him prior to the draft. We don’t need another Rocker fiasco.

 

 We shifted to pitchers a few days ago as the possible Mets pick at either 1.11 or 1.14. I’ve mentioned his before… all the great bats go early in this draft and you need to scoop one if them up before you turn to the deep pitching talent pool. 

That being said, here’s the “other” Tennessee outfielder that is going to go in the first half of this draft. 

6-3, 225 RHH Jordan Beck is the power bat that helped carry the then number one team into the CWS. 

MLB.com says - 

 Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50 

Several evaluators draw parallels between Beck and former Mississippi State star Hunter Renfroe. Both were physical, tooled-up right fielders in the Southeastern Conference, and both were drafted by the Red Sox as raw high schoolers (Beck in the 14th round in 2019). Renfroe slugged his way into the first round after improving in his third college season, and Beck is doing the same this spring. 

Beck uses his bat speed, strength and the leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame to create well above-average raw power to all fields. He gets too aggressive at the plate, however, and he struggled to make contact and drive the ball with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer. Developing more discipline and making adjustments against breaking balls and changeups has helped him make the leap Renfroe did. 

Beck runs very well for his size, displaying solid speed and the ability to steal an occasional base. His plus arm strength adds to his profile in right field, where he's a better-than-average defender. Though he doesn't play center field for the Volunteers because they have Drew Gilbert, he did see some action in center on the Cape and may merit a look there in pro ball. 

2022 stat line -  66-G, 252-AB, .298/.391/.595, 18-HR, 61-RBI 

 

Thursday’s tweets -

 

Carlos Collazo (@CarlosACollazo) 

Kumar Rocker through four starts with @ValleyCats: 

1.80 ERA, 15 IP, 25 K, 3 BB, 9 hits allowed. 

 

Michael Mayer @mikemayer22 

Pete Alonso ranks among NL hitters: 

1st - 20 HR

1st - 65 RBI

2nd - 1.317 OPS w/RISP

4th - 156 wRC+ 

 

Mathew Brownstein @MBrownstein89 

Among 307 minor league hitters with a min. 600 PAs since 2021, here are the top 5 leaders in wRC+: 

Jonathan Aranda: 153

Vinnie Pasquantino: 150

George Valera: 150

Francisco Álvarez: 150

Jose Miranda: 149 

 

Carson @MetsfanOnYT 

Josh Edgin in 2014 

27.1 IP

21.2 K-BB%

1.32 ERA

2.69 FIP

2.83 xFIP

2.44 SIERA

50.7 GB%

85.6 LOB%

28.1 CSW%

28.7 HH%

1.2 fWAR/60

1.1 bWAR/60 

I don’t think enough Mets fans realize how elite this man was before brutal injuries completely destroyed his career.


TOM’S MINORS MINI-METROSPECTIVE:

Syracuse: 10-9 losers, after 4 rallying runs in inning no. 9. 

Vientos had 2 hits, two walks. Too ready? Dini (catcher) grand slam, Quinn Brodey 2 hits, 3 RBIs, as his recent resurgence continues. 

'Cuse Pitching? Not much. Lastly, the bottom 2 dudes in line up, who shall remain nameless, were 0-9 with 9 Ks…not a good night. 18 Ks in all for the Syracuse Swishers.


Binghamton: Brett "Boom Boom" Baty has gotten mad at me. Good, I poked the bear and like it when he roars…. 3 for 4, 7th HR. Alvarez 0 for 2, 3 passes - getting the Bonds treatment.  .343/.418/.529 in 18 June games so far after coming off the 7 day DL.  Just 21 RBIs in 204 ABs, but that is picking up this month.  Why so low, I wondered out loud to no one who would listen?  

A poor 7 for 48 with runners in scoring position, and 24 strikeouts and 7 walks.  

Hopefully, the latter "poke" will cause an RBI ROAR!

 5-4 Bingo win. The elite McIlwain bat produced a game winning single in the 10th.


Brooklyn: Just 3 hits, but 3 runs, 3-1 win. Vasil 6 fine innings, Hartwig save.  The Cyclones have been close to league average in runs, HRs, and average this month, but due to their very slow start, are still second to last in hitting and runs and last in HRs (34, league leading team has 97).  You know, Rome wasn't built in a day.  Funny, though, Rome is one of the teams in their league and is averaging 2 more runs per game than the Brooklyn Boys. 


St Lucie: Top 4 guys in the lineup got on 8 times, but the next 5 got on just twice.  

Junior Tilien had 2 hits and 2 RBIs (26 in 31 games) and "just" 26 Ks (more on team Ks later).

Last two fellas in last night's line up are both sub-.100 for St Lucie.  The duo, that I won't name, are 8 for 85.  Three other guys have gone 5 for 53 for St Lucie this year.  That combined 13 for 138 is not only tough to do, it is why the team's average has dipped to .241, which is still tied for the league's team lead.  The rest of the team is hitting .251.  They lead in OPS (.722).  

Mack's (unnamed here) favorite Lucie slugger is 4 short of 100 Ks, and most likely will enter July 100+.

The entire Lucie team has 685 Ks in 2,149 ABs, not good, but Tampa has an astonishing 797 Ks in 2,061 at bats.  That entire team is fanning once every 2.6 at bats.

Lastly, despite Omar De Los Santos' 39 steals in 55 games (take that, Lou Brock), St Lucie is only 6th among teams in steals.  Run, Omar, Run!

Oh, yeah....7-3 Lucie loss last night.

17 comments:

  1. Re: Baty

    Coming around

    Most great hitters do

    ReplyDelete
  2. Re: Junior Tilien

    I guess we need to start taking this kid serious

    It's always nice when a rough cut is dug out of the wall

    ReplyDelete
  3. Re: Omar de los Santos

    Do you see a future for this guy?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I would agree that in order to get promoted in the past, the ERAs had to be low. But didn't the pitcher have to throw innings also? Szapicki has only thrown 40 innings in 11 starts. With so few innings one bad start throws the ERA off. Once gave up 3 runs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Morning Steev

      True, but Szapucki is an exception. He has never thrown enough pitches since he returned from TJS ages ago

      I just don't know why the Mets won't make him a one inning reliever.

      Delete
  5. Mack, Omar to me has a real future if he can cut down the Ks. He is Champ Stuart (or Khalil Lee) until he proves he can do that. I am just puzzled how the entire league's Ks are up so much - are the pitchers that much better than they used to be?

    One thing I do know, is most guys who fan a lot and head to Brooklyn are in for very rough sledding. Omar needs to get on base more by any means possible. I always think of Matty Alou, who did not have Omar's speed, but boy you could not fan him. Omar is hitting .382 on balls he puts in play, likely due to his speed, yet has 79 Ks and in 234 PA and just 14 walks in 55 games.

    It is so odd that as a righty hitter, he is hitting .291 vs. righties with 60 Ks in over 180 plate appearances, but is just 8 for 45 with 19 Ks against lefties! I seem to be seeing that a real lot from righty hitters against lefties. If I were Steve C, ad it is permissible, I would hire good lefties that are out of BB to pitch BP to these guys. I think the fact that Omar is hitting righties well is a very good sign.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Mack, I agree on Szapucki - Familia was a lousy minors starter, and he turned into a very viable MLB reliever.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Petey the Crow is .321/.398/.536. That trade was just so dumb.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I was at the Rumble Ponies game last night so I got to witness several things worthy of note.
    1) Baty's HR was a BLAST! He put one well over the billboards in right center - this is the most power I have seen him display.
    2) Alvarez is looking better every time out defensively (the offensive side has been well chronicled). Last night a runner took off from 1B. Pitch was low heading for the dirt. Alvarez lunged to catch it before the dirt, threw from his knees a one-hopper right on the bag. Not classic looking play, but pure athleticism and a powerful arm.
    3) Why are the Ponies in last place in the Eastern League when they have all these prospects? Two reasons. A)Very weak lower half of the order. B) Rico Brogna.
    - Leadoff batter Brandon McIlwain led off the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and was second hitter in the 9th. Top of the order is full of prospects getting on base, bottom half was consistently not delivering.
    - Very poor tactical management last night by Brogna. With 1 out and runners on 1st and 3rd in the 9th inning, tie game, infield in, runners not held, he did not send the runner to eliminate the double play. With runners in scoring position and the weakest part of the lineup at bat (as described above), he leaves Wyatt Young and James McCann on the bench and lets the #8 and #9 hitters fail.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Tom, The Crow is on the IL for getting hit on the hand. Those numbers are actually down a bit following the injury before they put him on IL to keep from forming bad hitting habits.

    Vasil was great last night!

    Mack, yesterday I put my short list of Susac, Lesko, Prielipp, Berry out there, and you told me that there are other pitchers better than Prielipp. However, since he was expected to be the top pick if he were healthy, if you get him and Lesko (2 top five picks), how is that not good.

    Also, read about Jung’s weird batting stance making his swing very long, in fact Keith Law speaks pretty badly about it. He seems to be dropping on most prognostications.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I like Preilipp.

      I just like Blade Tidwell and Brandon Barriera more.

      Delete
  10. Yes, great recap Paul!

    Fair enough Mack on the arms. Also, Law did call Jung an elite bat, so…. i guess i can embrace…

    Question: Since offense is supposedly down, why are Mets minor league pitchers’ ERAs up?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Come on. Don't you want to see.me with a dress.on?

      One more thing.

      With what's going on now. I don't know why Steve didn't sign Rocker and let him heal under contract

      He could be doing the current damage for St. Lucie right now.

      Delete
  11. I did a facebook post about Alvarez - about 50 folks said, "he's not ready defensively." I said back, have you looked at him in 2022 - he is adequate and improving. The bat (in AA) is inspiring Bonds-like fear (for AA). Get him the heck to AAA. It's not like we are 14 ahead of the Braves. We REALLY may need this kid in several weeks in Queens.

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  12. Gus didn't know about the Crow. I hate those HBP hand injuries.

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  13. Gus, no Matt Allan, and no Ginn. So they pitch like they've had too much vodka.

    OUR teams' hitting is down - other opposing teams in some cases are doing MUCH better (except Lucie). We want one of the other teams to start hitting? Call them Ethel

    ReplyDelete