Ed Delaney pic of Francisco the Great
The Mets # 1 uber-prospect (pictured above) has had 4 season segments so far.
Francisco Alvarez started out in AA in his first 3 games as if he was intent on being called up by the Mets within the first week. He went 7 for 13 (.538), with 3 HRs and 7 RBIs. That was segment 1, a short segment.
The second segment spanned 10 games in which he went just 7 for 34 with 1 HR. Presumably the league had adjusted tohim. The average dropped from .538 to a still solid .294. What would follow next?
The third segment was a no-doubt painful 3 for 35 stretch of games. Five walks, just 10 strikeouts, but his average dipped to .205, a long way from .538.
The fourth stage, through his game-winning sac fly on Saturday, has been the "stabilize and thrive" segment, in which he has gone 30 for 88 (.340), with 6 doubles, 5 HRs, 7 walks and 25 Ks. He has as a result jumped 70 points from .205 to .275.
One could argue that the 4th segment really should be split in two as, over his last 10 games, all 5 of those HRs occurred as he has gone 15 for 37.
I think the recent segment, to me, is significant. It means he is clearly much closer to the big leagues. I was happy to see that on his game-winning sac fly Saturday, he maturely did not try to do too much with it and hit it to right center. That got positively reinforced when he got mobbed in the infield and the Gatorade treatment.
(Of course, he also hit his 10th on Sunday....BOOM!)
To get to the big leagues, which I think could happen by September, to me he has to:
1) continue to dominate AA pitchers, as he has done recently. In warm weather, I am expecting the recent hot streak to continue.
2) conquer AAA pitching (Pete Alonso struggled for a few weeks upon his arrival in AAA in2018 before torturing AAA pitchers the rest of the way. Just do the same.)
3) Keep the Ks down. Do what Pete does - since you have close to the same raw brute strength as Pete, just drive the ball and the HRs will come.
Defensively, 3 errors in 31 games, just 2 passed balls and 10 for 43 in caught stealing. Not bad, and the likely time he will remain in the minors in 2022 ought to let him be fully MLB-competent behind the plate.
If McCann returns and is productive, and Nido keeps hitting .247, that could delay FA until 2023 - but Nido has a -0.3 WAR and has gunned down just 1 for 13 this year, so one never knows.
I am looking forward to the next segment of Alvarez - the one that transforms him into an MLB player sooner rather than later.
P.S.
Taking a respite from doing the Daily Recaps for the foreseeable future. Not enough spare time to do it right, so if you can't do it right....
If you wish to pick up the gantlet on this, reach out to Mack to discuss. Thanks.
P.P.S....DSL
16 year old bonus baby Simon Juan played in his first DSL game and went 1 for 5.
And 17 year old Mets SS Jesus Baez debuted in the DSL with TWO HRs and a single in 4 at bats and 5 RBIs! What will he do for an encore?
P.P.P.S.
Crackling Carlos Carrasco awesome again (7-1); Mets with 16 hits, including a cycle and 6 ribbies by Eduardo Escobar; Snell needed 95 pitches to struggle through 4 innings against the Mets' machine. 11-5 win. I can remember so many Mets teams that would go MONTHS without a double digit scoring game. This team feels like that should happen at least once a week. LGM, people.
Shocker - Syndergaard lost 1-0 yesterday. Who beat him? Michael Wacha threw a 3 hit 9 inning shutout. Has a 1.99 ERA. Yep, that Michael Wacha.
ReplyDeleteWhy would you possibly play Guillorme when you have Escobar. On the other hand, how would you possibly play Escobar when you have Guillorme? Nice problem to have.
ReplyDeleteNido 11 for 29 and THREE walks in his last 32 PAs, and knocking in runs. Dude is HOT! Who would want to face this team right now?
Mets are FIRST OVERALL IN BATTING AVERAGE; RUNS; AND OBP. Last year at this time, I think they were last in batting average and runs. Loving the offense.
ReplyDeleteMets have scored 297 runs. What a difference a year can make.
ReplyDeleteNearly two weeks later in 2021 than we are right now, I wrote the following about the horrid Mets hitting of 2021:
BORING. IT GIVES ME CHUNKS. The hitters should be indicted on charges of lack of run support, aggravated fan aggravation, and pennant race endangerment.
The Mets are dead last in scoring with 233 runs, while the Astros, without former offensive cog George Springer, have scored 384. 151 more runs, just to save you the math calc.
Yes, yes, I understand, the Astros have played 7 games more than the Mets' 62 games, and assuredly, I do understand that the Mets were going to average 22 runs per game in their next 7 games to pull even with the Astros, and that writing about this whole subject is therefore pointless. Thanks for pointing that out.
Playing a word association game, though, I find that when someone says to me, "Major league's lowest scoring team," I pop out words like IMPOTENT, DREADFUL, BORING, and phrases like "Tiddlywinks are more fun".
We hear Jeff McNeil is due back Sunday or Monday, when he just doubled and homered for Syracuse last night and should instead have been handed a plane ticket to DC within 5 minutes after his home run, along with a satchel of smelling salts for Mets "hitters".
Lots of good info here.
ReplyDeleteLots of good vibes this year. I've said it before. Loved the acquisition of Marte, Escobar and Canha. Happy to see Nido producing as well.
ReplyDeleteRay, the off season adds have only been outdone by the off season subtracts. MAJOR upgrades in talent AND chemistry and collective determination.
ReplyDeleteTHE MET MACHINE!! I don't know if I ever would have thought that this was possible just like having an MVPete crazy stuff but loving it. Also VERY right about Eppler and the FO and sooooo much different than our prior regime who almost always left us wondering if they had a clue. Remember when the sale of the team was contingent on keeping Jeffy on for 5 years! OMG that would have been a disaster for sure as his "I'm the smartest guy in the room" crap would have sunk us for many more years. We dodged a real big bullet there.
ReplyDeleteAlvarez continuing to get love. ESPN+ saying he is the top guy in the minors.
ReplyDeleteDo we think there is a better chance they trade guys like Baty/Mauricio/Vientos/Mangum or do we think any of those guys will contribute this year? It seems with the guys that we have that it is unlikely unless multiple guys get hurt. I guess that is a good problem to have.
Dallas, I remain convinced Vientos can produce this year if needed. If not, a full season to get super-ready. Mangum probably would have gotten called up if not for Joe the Plummer. Baty to me can go if someone wants him for good value. See my brief comments in an article tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteMauricio is a keeper, I think by this time next year he will be ready to be a MLB SLUGGER. Get him in the OF and at 2B soon, so he is versatile. If NOT kept, he better bring back big value. He could be a real power bat in two years. I do a piece on him this Thursday.