Tom Brennan - Get Away from the Dreaded K; Contact is the Key

Nothing like making great contact, Joe Sewell always used to say…with his bat, that is.

I’m like everyone else…no....really...

I want the kids to succeed. However…

The terrain in the minors gets particularly treacherous for those hitters who have strikeout problems.

The higher you go, the harder it gets to not strike out, simply put.  And that whiff factor causes hitters' slash lines to drop as fast as the indices of the Dow/S&P/NASDAQ.

Here are a few cases to make that point, and why it is so important for hitters to march into the coach's cubicle and say, "what do I have to do to slash the number of my strikeouts? I wanna be like Jeff McNeil, who only fanned 42 times in 88 games in the minors in 2018!  HELP ME, COACH, HELP ME!""

Carlos Dominguez is .254/.320/.503 - solid Lucie numbers - and man, is he bopping...last year in the GCL and this year in St Lucie, CD has 23 HRs and 63 RBIs in 322 at bats - Wow Great.

But in 2022, 82 Ks in 47 games. That is Wow High.  Over 150 games, that would be 260 Ks. Wow...High. He and teammate Omar de los Santos (74 Ks in 49 games), another talented athlete, combined to fan 5 more times between them last night, and each needs to cut the Ks.

Hall of Fame Joe Sewell fanned 48 times - in total - in his last 9 years of his career. Too bad he played 100 years ago, because I’m sure he’d have great advice to share if he was still around.

Others who have struggled with the strikeouts have found the slope gets a lot more slippery as the promotions come.

Sherveyn Newton got his Ks down to 29 in 24 games early in 2022 with St Lucie, much better than Dominguez's rate, and Newton hit a better .298/.375/.538 while there.

So they promoted Newton to Brooklyn.  Would the better pitching result in higher Ks, less offensive output?  Yes, and yes.

In Brooklyn, .170/.277/.295, with 43 Ks in his first 25 games.

Same with Jaylen Palmer - last year, he fanned "just" 81 times in 66 St Lucie games and hit .276/.378/.386. Impressive slash line.

Since then, in 86 Brooklyn games, 138 Ks, .180/.295/.330.  Lots more Ks, lots less output.

Based on that, I think Dominguez, given his huge current Lucie K rate, would fail badly in Brooklyn if promoted right now. Patience is needed.  

His Lucie Ks are worse than Newton's and Palmer's and those two are now fanning like mad in Brooklyn.

I thus think Carlos should stay the whole year in St Lucie, hopefully get in another 70-80 games, and make it his mission to try to not fan more than 80-100 times. Even that rate is too much, but it would be progress and get him ready for the formidable challenge of Brooklyn in 2023.

(Newton by the way knocked a 3 run shot yesterday in Brooklyn’s game 1 win. Nice. Palmer, meanwhile, added a hit and a walk, and Junior Santos ant Grant Hartwig pitched well, with Santos securing his 3rd win. Palmer and Newton were productive in game 2 as well, with Newton plating 2 more runners. Turning point day, perhaps?)

Some guys whose 2022 puzzle me are Quinn Brodey, who hasn’t put up decent numbers since 2019 and Matt Winaker with a big drop off from 2021. Puzzling regressions. Strikeout increases have played a part.

Both excelled last night in a 13-1 win in game 1, though, as Brodey had 2 hits, including a 3 run shot, and 4 RBIs, and Winaker with a homer, walk and 2 RBIs.  Turning point day, perhaps? Alvarez had 3 hits and Ronny Mo hit his 10th, a sign he could put up big HR numbers in the bigs in a few years. Bingo shut out on 2 hits in the nightcap…one hit was by…Brodey.  Great.

For Syracuse yesterday, Mark Vientos hit yet another (11). Aside from and early season slump in both 2021 and 2022, he is an absolute HR machine. I still think he may hit them in Queens like Pete. 

No, not like Pete Incaviglia, you know who I mean. 

Syracuse, with a hot Palka and Vientos AND Dom Smith has transformed the S Mets into an offensive powerhouse. 5-4 win.

Dom Hamel spun a gem for St Lucie, with 6.2 innings of one-hit ball. Stanley Consuegra (2 hits, 2 walks) hit his 6th and Jack Wold his 4th. Lucie wins it, 5-1. Stanley C is having a HOT month of June so far. Talent abound in St Lucie. Greg Guerrero also played…he went 1 for 3, but he has under 20 at bats this year.  I wonder what is going on with him.

Before I leave the minors, two guys have heated up...Brandon McIlwain is up to .297 in Brooklyn, .305 in May, .347 in June. .414 on base in May, .439 in June. Just 24 Ks over 33 games in that period.  And Jake Mangum has hit well above .300 after April.  Just 20 games played in that span, but just 10 Ks in those 20 games.  Contact is the key.

Mets?

They mucked it up Wednesday night. 10-2. Reed not good in relief at all, turning it into a blowout. 

Meanwhile, Max getting close.  Jake almost as close. Prayers.

One, often disrespected, fireballer is the one of the trio standing tall:

Sir Edwin Díaz. A/K/A Edwin the Magnificent.

Lastly, baseball’s immutable rules have changed.  The Braves will clearly never lose again. It’s in the fine print somewhere.