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6/21/22

Tom Brennan - Is Francisco Alvarez Ready? And Jordany Ventura and Andinson Ferrer

Gary Seagren, one of our most astute readers (and our readers are all astute, for the record) raises a good point, about Alvarez.  That Nido is not throwing dudes out.  So why not bring Alvarez up?

First of all, who do we have now?  Tomas Nido has hit better in 2022, but he still does not hit well.  No one will mistake him at the plate for, say, Mike Piazza.

Alvarez, meanwhile, hits like a raging beast.  After a 10 for 69 early season skid, he has hit roughly .350 over the past 33 games and has 11 HRs over the past 22 games.

And in his career, Alvarez has 698 official ABs, and has 44 doubles, 46 HRs, and 137 RBIs. 

(Juan Soto had more than 100 fewer at bats when he made his MLB debut).

Back to Nido....he has thrown out just 1 of 20 runners.  If Nido was strong behind the plate and also nailing 40% of base stealers, I'd say the gap defensively between him and Alvarez is big, and leave well enough alone. 

Alvarez, for the record, has nailed just 13 of 56 this year.  But people act as if the mantra that he needs to improve defensively hasn't already been heeded by Alvarez.  He is much better on D.  His passed ball and error rate are way down from last year.   And Binghamton co-catcher Hayden Senger has nailed just 5 of 38 this year, vs. 18 of 56 last year, so the Bingo pitchers may just be doing a terrible job of holding guys on.  The video I've seen of Alvarez shows me he has a gun for an arm.

Meanwhile, as I highlighted the other day, Mr. Expensive, James McCann, has hit .188 with 2 HRs in his last 175 at bats back to 2021.  Through his first two days in rehab, he hit 1 for 9, with 7 Ks.  He may have hit well with the Chi Sox, but he might be in decline.  What I am hoping is his hand injury was a long-running issue, and now, post-surgery, he will snap back into form.  But he is 32, and 32 year old catchers sometimes are in the midst of rapid decline.  Time will tell on Sweet Baby James.

Wilson Ramos hit over .300 at age 31; hit very well for the Mets at age 32; hit much less well at age 33; and hit much less well than that at age 34.  At his current age (almost) 35, be is out of baseball.  Catchers age fast, most of the time.  Wilson got to be so slow, if his team would have played a 3 hour game, but he got on base 3 times, it would become a 4 hour game due to his running. (He had 1 career stolen base, as a Met, in a career spanning 990 games, but I digress....)

Is Alvarez ready?  Maybe - or maybe not quite yet.  I say yes, but no one listens to me, even though I am right all the time.

After his scorching recent hitting, I'd have promoted him to AAA after Sunday's game.  Forget the AA All Star game.  Challenge him.  Because, as much as we hope McCann/Nido will become a force, that tandem may continue to sputter, while "calling a good game."  And, keep in mind, McCann has thrown out just 21 of 75 runners since becoming a Met.  He is still a better defensive catcher than Alvarez, but the gap is closing.

If the Mets tandem sputters, and Alvarez continues to soar, I'd like the see the Mets have 2 Franciscos in the line-up by August 1.  

Because, as everyone knows, not only are two heads better than one...two Franciscos are better than one. 

Mets' catchers, after having the worst RBI production in baseball in 2021, have just 23 RBIs in 67 games and a .207 average in 2022.   The third, so-far unmentioned member (Patrick Mazeika) is a AAAA guy with the bat.  He is .189/.239/.272 as a major leaguer, not acceptable.

The answer to that catcher hitting malaise is:

FRANCISCO ALVAREZ

Thankfully, we have someone named Francisco Alvarez in the system.  

Our other 2 best other catchers in the minors (Senger and Meyer) are not particularly good hitter or run producers.  Senger has 8 RBIs in 140 ABs this year, and a mere 22 in 364 ABs this year and last.  Meyer just had 5 RBIs Saturday, boosting him to 15 in 108 at bats; he is a passable offensive guy, hitting .240 with a .340 OBP and .330 slug % and modest 33 RBIs in 327 ABs this year and last.  

Alvarez numbers vastly exceed theirs.  He is a beast, they are human.

I could see a tandem of Alvarez and Meyer down the road.  Meyer seems to have some Jerry Grote in him.  

But even he has just thrown out 9 of 44 this season.  Looking at the CS% of Alvarez, Meyer, and Senger, I believe the pitchers have to be culpable in 2022 as far as not holding runners well.

Oh, and at Alvarez’s current age, Reyes, Straw Man, and Doc Gooden were already in the big leagues.

That's my take, what's yours? Facebook experts are split on the subject, for the little that is worth. One third want him now, another third think the idea is nuts, and the final third just likes to insult those who make reasonable posts. I am getting very good at firing back at the latter group. I often use big words that no doubt baffle them. LOL.

METS WIN 3 OF 4 AGAINST THE MARLENES

6-0 shutout, Peterson win (4-1, 3.18), McNeil (.327) out with hammy. Replaced by Guillorme Gwynn .330).  Hopefully, not a serious injury to the invaluable Squirrel.

JD Davis nailed on hand with a pitch. # 50.  Painful. Hopefully OK. ANSWER?  Retaliate against the Marlins this weekend.

The Dominator, Dom Smith, was recalled. Smith hit .266 in AAA, and 2 for his last 14.

Ender Inciarte was released, and then signed by the Mets, presumably to AAA for now. He was hitting .252 in AAA, a few points below Dom.

MINORS:

Teams are off on Mondays.

Mack’s Mets is never off…and always spot on.

One former Tommy John-impacted prospect that has been really dominant in a few outings recently...Jordany Ventura

6.1 IP, 3 H, Zero BB, 11 Ks.  Six innings a career does not make, but those numbers are eye-catching.

Lastly, bonus baby Simon Juan in the DSL is 5 for 37 with a HR.

But my player of the day?  Andinson Ferrer of the DSL - so far, 7.1 career innings, no hits allowed, 5 walks, 17 Ks.  Dang, that's impressive, huh?

16 comments:

  1. I am starting Andinson Ferrer and Jordany Ventura Fan Clubs, but am holding off for the moment on Simon Juan. (You never really can tell when I'm kidding, can you?)

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  2. Hold off guys on Alvy.

    McCann comes back this weekend and he will hold the fort down thru 2023

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  3. Tom

    Starting tomorrow, I suspended my daily minor league prospect profile on my Mack Report each morning.

    We are stepping all over each other on these and you do a much better job on them than I currently do.

    I look forward to them in your separate posts or as a tag on with mine.

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  4. Thanks for the mention Tom and by the way Piazza who we all love wasn't exactly Molina behind the dish but oh that bat and isn't this the same discussion we had about MVPete before he came up about his defense and that kind of worked out didn't it. Look with the added bonus of DH this should be a no brainer as we can bring him along slowly along with learning the ropes from a major league dugout with a winning team and Buck as his manager.

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  5. Mack, I agree, and they likely won't want to rock the catching boat in 2022. So, I'd figure Alvy on Sept 1 as a 3rd catcher (always handy) and a DH and PH. I think in 2023, he might share duties with McCann, with Nido the odd man out. It's all up to Alvarez.

    He seems to be following Alonso 2018. Pete crushed AA, then got up to AAA mid season, struggled for a few weeks, and then crushed AAA. I expect the same from Francisco - if they let him.

    To me, McCann and Nido are solid defensively, but since the start of 2021, the Mets may have the worst catcher offense in baseball, definitely bottom 5. I do not want that carrying over into 2023. I want Alvarez in the bigs this year to get his toes wet, and then ready to win ROY next year. Enough ABs for him as PT catcher and also DH.

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  6. Mack, sounds good. If I cannot tag on a quick update - they will get shorter, I just started to poke around a bit for DSL stats and FCL stats last night - for some reason, I can't find them for the entire teams, so I glanced thru the league leaders - a hassle, so I won't be doing that more than once every few weeks.

    I did see that Ryley Gilliam in FCL seems to be listed as missing the whole year, which I assume means 2022. I wonder what his malady is. He's 25 now.

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  7. Gary, I wrote my response to Mack's thoughts, then saw yours and I think you and I are basically on the same page on Alvarez.

    Part of my wanting to be aggressive with Alvy is the Hall of Fame. When all is said and done, he may fall well short, as so many do, but the longer a guy plays, the more HRs, RBIs, and catchers can break down, so I'd like to see him get an early start in the possible HOF race if at all possible.

    Pete looks like a possible HOF - after 6 decades, it is nice to really have a guy on the HOF trajectory. Only Straw and Wright seemed to be on that trajectory, and both faltered. Pete seems to have the will not to falter. But his late MLB debut (24 years, 111 days) gives him little margin for error. I would have called Pete up at the same time they called up McNeil in 2018.

    I want the Mets to increase Alvarez's margin for HOF error by calling him up early.

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  8. Yep, Mack, Gilliam was hurtling up fast and then hit real turbulence. We may have to settle for Eric Orze, and he looks mighty good.

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  9. Look back to 2015 where several pitchers and Conforto were called up to help the big league club. Seems like too often clubs turn to the trade market where promoting internally would be the better option. Lets see guys like Vientos or Alvarez this year and see what they can do if they keep scorching the ball like they have. How much does Alvarez need babying? Are we really worried about him being less productive than Nido? Surrounding him with McCann and other top level coaches and catching 20% of the games this year seems good to me. I'm sure the Mets have the pulse on this one. I just hope they don't trade away a Mauricio, Vientos, Baty etc to fill options they have internally(bats or arm). With the extra 2 playoff spots the cost in trades in prospect capital are going to be so much higher. Less teams out of it and more teams looking to improve.

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  10. Dallas, cannot disagree. I saw a clip of Vientos hitting 2 homers in a game recently, both no-doubters to the opposite field. You just don't trade that away, in my opinion. Alvarez? No one including me is saying to call him up today. I would keep an open mind between a month from now and September. Nido just is a substandard hitter; I have little doubt Alvarez is already a better hitter. Get him to AAA and challenge him.

    Mauricio will have big power, but his fielding is weak and he needs to get a higher OBP - I hope they are patient with him. I see him as an OD 2024 outfielder or 2B.

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  11. Mack, that might be true, but I think R Mo has 9 steals this year. Has to be faster than Smith

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  12. We all look forward to the MLB debut of Fernando Alvarez. He has shown great promise so far. He has some development left to do - see my 6/12 article, but he can do that at AAA. I do believe that it is time to provide his next challenge.

    Tom makes a good point about Juan Soto coming up quickly and establishing his stardom. But for every one of those, there is a Michael Conforto or a Mike Jacobs, who got off to great starts but never sustained excellence. Confidence is fragile, and when the opposing pitchers figure out how to exploit your weaknesses it becomes an inflection point in a career. You either grind it out and improve in those areas, or you start to believe that "you can't". I think Alvarez is one of the former, as we watched AA pitchers figure him out earlier this year, and now he is crushing them. Calling him up to the majors as a 3rd catcher in September is a great idea - it is a much better way for him to learn the environment without feeling responsible to produce a 1.000 OPS.

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  13. Paul I agree. Few make that leap. Soto went to MLB after 30 at bats in AA. Of course, it all caught up to him this year as he is hitting just .218.

    Only other guy who could have done that leap to the bigs was Wyatt Young who after just 92 rookie ABs (.370) last year and 14 ABs this year in Brooklyn, went straight to AAA and hit an unconscious .352 in 19 games when every other guy in the AAA lineup was scuffling. Wyatt has hit just .227 in AA after that, but considering his jump all the way from rook ball, he is still holding his own. Amazing story.

    It certainly seems to me that if Young leapt to the Mets and not AAA earlier this year, he would not have hit .352, but would not have embarrassed himself.

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  14. While I was on another one of my Wyatt Young Admiration Tours (7 days, 6 nights, all meals included) it just dawned on me to wonder: did Young get in Spring Training games?

    Sure enough, the answer was yes - with a single and double in 4 at bats. Small, but lethal is Wyatt Young.

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