Mike's Mets - The Case for Promoting Francisco Alvarez

 

By Mike Steffanos

At the beginning of this season, I was convinced that the Mets should let their uber-prospect have the entire year in the minors. Now I'm beginning to see a path to the big leagues opening up for the young star.

When the year began, and Francisco Álvarez had an all-too-brief opportunity to participate in major league training camp, Francisco didn't hide his feelings that he was ready to play in the majors this season. Besides possessing a strong, mature body and an enviable work ethic, the young catcher also has a deep belief in his abilities that should stand him well. The physical and mental rigors and demands of being a major league catcher, along with the pressure cooker atmosphere of New York City, will provide plenty of tests of the young man's mettle.

I chuckled approvingly when I read his remarks, but I also hoped that the earliest we would see the young man would be if he earned a September callup. 2023 seemed a much more reasonable goal for Álvarez to challenge for the starting catching job. I hoped that the tandem of James McCann and Tomás Nido would perform well enough to obviate any need to rush Álvarez up to the bigs. The two have been mostly fine defensively, but neither has been able to contribute much with their bats. Now McCann will likely miss up to two months with an oblique strain. Nido exited last night's game with a bruised hand, and the Mets again depend on the overmatched Patrick Mazeika to handle significant playing time.

The Mets made a minor deal picking up catcher Michael Perez for cash from the Pirates. Although Perez has a reputation as a solid backstop, he has a lifetime slash line of .175/.244/.305 over 5 seasons split between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh. Perez has shown some power with the Pirates, hitting 13 HR in just under 350 PA. However, his batting average over the last 3 seasons is .150. There's a reason the Pirates DFA'd Perez. He's not going to help the Mets at all offensively beyond running into an occasional longball.

The bar might be low there, given how McCann and Nido have performed offensively this season, but McCann, in particular, has received high marks for how he's handled the pitching staff. Nido isn't up to McCann's level in this regard, but he's been serviceable. Mazeika seems like a good kid, but he's a huge step down as a receiver from James McCann. Patrick offers even less than McCann and Nido at the plate. He has put up an anemic .181/.234/.276 slash line over 138 lifetime PAs split between 2021 and this year. The Mets clearly don't want to navigate into September and possibly beyond with Mazeika in a vital role, so the pressure is on to find an upgrade.

Of course, the big name out there is Wilson Contreras of the Chicago Cubs. Although he isn't a Gold Glove-caliber receiver, Contreras is capable behind the place and a force with a bat in his hand. Wilson is a free agent after this season, so the thinking is that the Cubs will deal him for the right prospect package. Last year it cost the Mets their first-round selection Pete Crow-Armstrong to obtain two months of Javier Báez from the Cubs. That was not a good value for the Mets, especially given their hopes of someday possessing a productive farm system. But the word is out that the Cubs expect a top prospect in return for Contreras.

Really, there's no reason to expect the Cubs to trade a valuable asset like Contreras for a lesser value than Crow-Armstrong. I doubt they're particularly interested in a package built around Dom Smith and J.D. Davis. I know I wouldn't be if I were that team's GM. If I couldn't get a reasonably big prospect for Contreras, I would just pass and take my chances with a comp pick in next year's draft.

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