Paul Articulates – Do we keep Jacob deGrom?

I have to say that I am very disappointed that Jacob deGrom did not pitch in the Mets-Yankees series.  There are many reasons form my disappointment.  First there is that slippery calendar of hope.  Back in the spring we heard he would be gone for 1-2 months.  Then it was late June, which turned into early July and the all-star break.  Now he “needs” another minor league start to stretch out. Ugh!  Another downer is the fact that we know he has indicated the preference to opt out at the end of the season, meaning that there are very few starts between when he comes back and the inevitable bidding war for his continued services.  There is also this ominous specter in our rear-view mirror getting closer every day called the Atlanta Braves – can’t we move any faster?

I’m not going to deny reality.  He has been hurt and he’s trying to heal; trying to get back into that tuned muscle memory machine that could throw the ball at 100mph exactly where he wants to throw it.  It takes time and it takes a lot of throwing to get there.  What puzzles me is why he has to do that last “tuning” start in AAA.  The Mets are facing the New York Giants this week (OK, only some of them are giants and they call themselves the Yankees but they have won 66 games already) with the Braves right on their heels.  Couldn’t we have had Jake’s 60-or-so pitches in the middle innings of one of the games?  Imagine a solid, 5-inning Peterson start, followed by three innings of deGrom, and closed by Edwin Diaz.  For the same 60 pitches, there is a much different impact for the Mets.  I’m not the pitching coach or the medical staff, but that approach seems superior to a 3-4 inning stint in Syracuse.

Jake will be back when the Mets’ staff says he’s ready, so enough of my venting.  Let’s turn to the focus of this post – what should we do when Jacob deGrom opts out at the end of the year?  First let’s consider some information:

• Fact: on July 28th, deGrom will be 34 years, 39 days old.  Opinion: that’s old for a pitcher

• Fact: on July 28th, deGrom will have not pitched in a MLB game for 386 days.  Opinion: that’s a long time to be injured.

• Fact: deGrom signed a $137.5M contract in March 2019.  Since then he has pitched 364 innings in 59 games.  Opinion: he no longer physically able to provide 200 inn/yr.

• Fact: deGrom pitched over 200 innings in each year from 2017 to 2019 (top 5 IP in NL each year).  During that period, he had two short stints on the 10-day IL.  Prior to 2017 he was on the IL once (2014).  Opinion: before recent injuries, he was very physically reliable.

• Fact: deGrom has pitched 91 starts since the beginning of the 2018 season, compiling a 1.91 ERA and 774 strikeouts in 581 innings.  Opinion: he is the best pitcher in baseball when healthy.

• Fact: per Sportrac.com, the Mets have the second highest payroll in MLB at $259M for 2022.

• Fact: the Mets signed 37-year-old pitcher Max Scherzer to a 3-year $130M contract in November 2021.  Opinion: The Mets will spend top dollar for a top pitcher if that’s what it takes to win.

Given all this information and much more that we don’t know about his physical well-being, the Mets front office will have a difficult decision to make in the off-season.  Despite being paid roughly $27.5M for the year he was on the IL, deGrom will opt out of his current contract to test the market on the best deal his agent can find.  His loyalty to the Mets will only be an intangible factor as he decides among the offers he gets from several teams.  The Mets leadership will have to decide between spending a lot of money ($40-$50M/yr) to retain the “best pitcher in baseball” and spending that money to solve several other pending roster issues like the free agency of Nimmo, Diaz, Bassitt, Ottavino, Lugo, May, and others.

The information laid out above paints a picture of a once-healthy pitcher who is arguably the most dominant in baseball when healthy but whose health is suddenly very questionable as he moves further into his mid-30s.  He will command $40-$50M in free agency on a multiple year deal.  The competitors for his talent will include the teams that the Mets would likely see in the playoffs and/or World Series if they can get that far without him.

Would you sign him?  

Those who say, “YES!” will sacrifice most of the 2023 free agents above and would likely have to unload some payroll to afford a Diaz contract (McCann, Escobar).  What they get in return is a still-dominant pitching staff which is essential to a deep playoff run.  Think of a 3-game playoff series with both deGrom and Scherzer starting a game; or a 7-game series with those two factoring in 4 of the 7 games. 

Those who say, “NO!” will argue that he wouldn’t be there in the playoffs anyway – he would be on the IL.  We would rather rely on other free agents that the $40-$50M could buy.  This camp runs the risk of facing deGrom in the playoffs (Dodgers) or World Series (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels), but may have an easier time getting there if the money was spent on run-scoring.

The missing piece of information in this decision is how much and how well deGrom pitches in the second half of 2022.  If he stays healthy and dominates through the regular season and deep into the playoffs, the “YES” votes will accumulate.  If he goes down again for some other injury, even for a short amount of time, financial whiz Steve Cohen will say, “risk-off” and deGrom will be wearing another uniform next year.