Reese Kaplan -- How to Win in 2022 and Beyond

Let's discuss a team construction and development issue for which there are no exact right or wrong answers, but many things we need to consider as the team tries to progress as far as possible in 2022 without sacrificing 2023, 2024 and subsequent seasons.

First, the club is in first place but is most definitely far from perfect.  We recently saw the addition of a power hitting, high OBP batter in Daniel Vogelbach in what is likely viewed as half of a platoon at the DH position.  His price was highly reasonable in terms of salary, consequently bringing him in took a major leaguer in Colin Holderman who has been quite good albeit in a limited resume at the big league level.  Hopefully that is just step one.  

The team also needs to decide what to do about the right handed hitting half of that platoon.  JD Davis has shown some flashes of hitting with a bit more authority, though a .238 average doesn't on the surface show that improvement.  However, remember he was sub-Mendoza for much of the season so that climb up towards .240 is a big step forward.  Unfortunately the home run power he's shown in the past has not resurfaced and just as the club has lost patience with Dominic Smith, it appears they're also at the end of their rope with Mr. Davis.

Now many folks felt that the right answer for the club was to cash in all the chips to bring in a known commodity for DH like Nelson Cruz who is only hitting .233 for the Nationals with just 8 HRs.  While his average and power output are indeed questionable during his age 42 season, his 50 RBIs are not.  Think of him the way you think of Francisco Lindor.  He may not be doing everything you expected, but pushing runners across the plate is what he is paid to do and he's succeeding.  The problem with Cruz is that he is currently earning a salary of $12 million and there's a $16 million option or $3 million buyout for age 43 in 2023.  If they felt he would be the best right handed hitting complement to Vogelbach, that's a mighty stiff price to pay.  I'd think the asking price would be fairly low given his age, diminished stats and high salary.  

Another name bandied about liberally is the Baltimore Orioles' right handed hitting slugger Trey Mancini.  He's kind of a mirror image of the heretofore unsigned and injured Michael Conforto.  His career batting average is a respectable .270.  In his best season he hit 35 home runs and drove in 97 runs yet in his parts of six seasons in the majors he's never made the All Star team.  He's currently earning a modest $7.5 million and for 2023 there's a mutual $10 million option.  At age 30 he has a dozen year youth advantage and salary advantage over Cruz, but he's not driving in runs at the same magnitude.  For 2022 he has hit .266 with 9 HRs and 36 RBIs.  Those numbers are not bad but they're not stellar either.  What's more concerning are his LHP/RHP splits.  He actually does markedly better against righties, so inserting him as the guy to face lefties as a platoon partner with Vogelbach doesn't on the surface make sense.

Others we've heard about in the DH realm are likely going to require a major sacrifice of the farm.  This group would include Josh Bell, Juan Soto and others of that ilk who would most certainly make the club markedly better but at a potentially destructive cost to internal growth of top prospects in the system.  While many folks are in the "win it all now" viewpoint and regard Steve Cohen's pockets as immeasurably deep to solve problems in the future, we Mets fans grew up during the Wilpon era which for all of its flaws did at least open fans' eyes to the give and take while trying to manage a budget.  

There are other folks who think every prospect is a sure thing to replicate what he did in the minors at the next level.  Sometimes that's true but more often than not it isn't.  Many here, for example, thought some players were for real before injuries or an inability to adjust caught up with them.  Then there are others who were fringe prospects like Jeff McNeil who demonstrated the "better late than never" mantra and turned into higher quality major leaguers than folks anticipated.  Expecting every Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez to become All Stars is as delusional as writing off a player having one bad season as completely incapable.

Consequently, when you trade away potential long term and inexpensive minor league assets, you and the acquiring team are both taking a gamble.  You are hoping that the player's current perceived value is high enough to measure up as equitable compensation while at the same time you're kind of secretly hoping that the departing player will hit a developmental wall.  Do you remember Michael Fulmer going in the Yoenis Cespedes deal?  No one expected him to be a Rookie of the Year and a second year All Star, but no one also foresaw his injury history and career development even with solid 2021 and 2022 seasons' new role as a converted reliever still sporting an ERA much closer to 4.00 than to 3.00. Just remember that for every Amos Otis you give away in a trade there are dozens of Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge and David West types who never fulfill their potential.  

As the Mets head into their 2022/2023 offseason with a huge number of potential free agents that are either going to be very expensive to keep or painful to see them walk away, it's time to remember that the plan is not just for this year but the future as well.  Towards that end it might pay to gamble internally on some of these prospects to compensate for the expensive price of existing major leaguers who will be retained or bought in via free agency.  Don't think it's only about winning in 2022.