First, my thoughts on yesterday’s Mets draft picks.
-First of all, both Kevin Parada and Blade Tidwell immediately are elevated to RED PROSPECTS.
If no one was injured this year. I would have ranked Tidwell as the #2 RHP behind Dylan Lesko. Because of injuries, I had Brock Porter first, then Lesko, followed by Tidwell.
His fastball hits 99 and it’s not even his best pitch. He mixes this with a low-80s change-up which has a 39% swing and miss rate. When this guy is on, he is almost insane.
As for Nick Morabito, I have nothing on him. Followers of mine said he is in Keith Law’s top 50 picks and MLB had him in their top 100, but remember, my reports are all about what all the scouts write about these kids. I have never seen or cut and pasted anything on Morabito. I’m not saying he is a bad pick, I’m just saying I can’t draw a conclusion if I never heard of him.
Regarding Jett Williams, I’ve done some more research on him and consulted with some that have seen him in action it conforms to me that he is a great player. Now all we need to do is find him a position.
Past that, regarding the second round, I feel I know less every year. This season represented the most data I have ever entered to my database. Over 300 prospects and 500,000+ words. And still, the Mets managed to pick the majority of the players on Day 2 that I either had very little info on or none at all.
I have a lot of respect for the Mets draft team. They have been relatively spot on the past three years. In particular, last year we mirrored each other’s wants.
But this year I felt like a true amateur at this.
They even found someone named Jonah Reid Tin Chee Mathew Tong. Come on…
I said all off-mock season that we would most probably walk away with four RED prospects this draft.
Right now, I count two (Parada, Tidwell), with Jett Williams close behind.
Past that… word salad.
Rating: C
Going forward, I am going to stop compiling my draft database and just report to you via my Daily Reports any thoughts on the draft.
I have a major operation coming up next month and my daughter has two before the end of the year. That, and the natural aging process must limit my time spent to baseball.
I’ve enjoyed this throughout the years and I hope it has brought you some enjoyment.
Yesterday’s Tweets -
Stephen Huge Max Scherzer Fan @StephenJosiah13
Okay y'all are gonna be pissed about this but Jett Williams is insanely INSANELY good. If he weren't like 5'8", he woulda been a top 5-10 pick.
He's really REALLY good. I wanted Cam here but this is a great pick
Wayne Randazzo @WayneRandazzo
David Peterson has proven himself as a major league pitcher. Very underrated how much he's helped the Mets to this point.
Michael Baron @michaelgbaron
Ender Inciarte was outrighted to Triple-A Syracuse. So, he remains in the Mets organization.
Will Hoefer @whoeferbaseball
1.11 NYM: C Kevin Parada (Georgia Tech) - Really advanced hitter with big bat speed, 70 game power due to high level feel for the barrel and ability to take a variety of pitches out to all fields. Questions on D, but will hit so much it almost doesn’t matter
Roundin’ Third @RoundnThird
Jett Williams is the smallest player in the top 250 MLB ranked players in the draft at 5’8, kid has sneaky pop.
Great pick for the Mets - having a terrific draft tonight.
-Mack - Jett tweeted me that he liked what I said about him in my Day 1 recap
Jett Williams @jettwilliams04
Let’s goo!! Big apple hear I come! Let’s get to work
Robbie Faulk @robbiefaulk247
The Mets have been fond of MSU players/recruits.
2019 - Jake Mangum, Cole Gordon
2020 - JT Ginn
2021 - Rowdey Jordan
2022 - Jett Williams
SNY @SNYtv
Mets Director of Amateur Scouting Marc Tramuta says the Mets have targeted Jett Williams for nearly a year:
"We feel there's a lot of different ways, with Jett's bat, that he gets on the field."
Nathan @MarteMoonshot
After the first day of the draft here’s how I would have the Mets top 10:
1.Francisco Alvarez
2.Brett Baty
3.Kevin Parada
4.Jett Williams
5.Alex Ramirez
6.Mark Vientos
7.Matt Allan
8.Ronny Mauricio
9.Blake Tidwell
10.Calvin Ziegler
Mack,
ReplyDeleteAs always we appreciate your excellent work with the draft.
Do you expect the Mets to be aggressive today and draft some over slot prospects. There are some good players still on the board.
Hope so.
DeleteDay 3 is usually affiliate fill in day.
They need to draft at least 2 catchers and one or two first basemen.
Thank you also Mack for keeping us well informed leading up to the draft.
ReplyDeleteNathan’s tweet is a very good point about the new Mets prospect list. I would put Parada over Baty and Mauricio over Vientos, and Jett Williams before both of them, but it does certainly fill out the top ten a bit better.
Last year, the Mets did a great job finding starting pitching talent all draft long. I would like to see them mirror that.
They didn't draft enough quality pitchers in this draft, even though they had the opportunity to.
DeleteI also would have liked four red prospects, but for the first time ever I got to see how hard it is to accumulate good players. Makes me very impressed with the Dodgers work all these years, and before that, the Astros. Also, it appears losing Conforto’s compensation pick may not have been the biggest loss in the world, after all. Man, I can only wonder what Conforto is thinking right now. He must be saying Boras’ blonde hair looks good in Soto’s picture from the HR Derby.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Soto… I just don’t see it. The Mets aren’t deep enough to do a trade and still compete. The Nationals will hold out for the sun and moon. I don’t think the Mets would be a single game better if Soto was in RF instead of Marte this year, so what’s the need to rip up your organization? If the Nationals want to get rid of the contracts of Stasburg and Corbin, then it can be weighed. Prospects wise, I see Atlanta, Baltimore and the Yankees as the best fits.
I would love to see Soto get on the train at the 30th Street station but I love what our system looks like too.
DeleteGreat roundup Mack! I imagine the draft stuff gets more complex as teams massively ramp up the scouting and analytics to try to stay ahead of the rest of the pack.
ReplyDeleteGood luck with your procedures as well.
Soto mania is reaching new heights. Even some people usually with very logical reason takes are just throwing all thought to the wind. One guy I respect said, who cares, just figure out the details later. You don't build a team on emotion, you have to look forward beyond this year and all of the wide ranging implications.
What do we know? Soto turned down 440mil. That means you probably need 500mil+ to get him signed. He wants to be the highest paid player. You have to play out the ramifications of emptying the top of your farm system + paying Soto 40-50mil a year long term. What opportunities do you miss with that money allocated to Soto? How do you fill your holes when trading away guys ready for the majors making the minimum? What is the risk factor of having two guys locked up for over a decade? For me Soto increases your odds this year but hurts you going forward starting as soon as this offseason.
Holes to fill in 2023:
C - Alvarez gone, McCann ineffective, Parada years away
SP1 - DeGrom
SP2 - Bassitt
SP3 - Walker
SP4 - Carassco
RP - Diaz
CF - Nimmo
RP - Lugo/May FA
DH - Dom/JD are not going to cut it
Soto fills DH? Rotates out with Cahna/Marte/McNeil in 23?
Holes in 2024
3B - Escobar
OF - Cahna
1B - Big raise to Pete
2B - Big raise to McNeil
Who in the upper minors survives the Soto trade to help fill these holes in 23,24? Likely Baty/Alvarez/Vientos would have given you some cheap salary to offset things but now your paying 40-50mil for Soto. Do the Mets spend 400-500 million or do they just survive with some cheap guys they plug in and possibly stink until the next wave of prospects come through? Will Pete get paid?
Lets also factor in the other needs of 2022. You jettison a ton of talent for Soto. Whats left to bolster the RP & C? Do you just stick with the automatic outs of McCann/Nido and just pray that May/Lugo/Smith can get it together? To you ship out even more talent and really go all in this year?
I'm not a win now guy if it means I'm gonna be miserable next year and longer. I've had enough of Mets losing. I'm sure Soto increases our WS odds a few points this year. He is a generational player. My thought is that you don't have to have a generational player to win. You just signed Lindor to a "generational" deal and jettisoned off a guy named Alvarez who has been equally productive this year for the minimum. All the same things were said about him.
A few things.
Delete1. I go back and forth.on Soto. Still, he is only 23.
2. Vientos will help next year, probably at DH
3. That's about it.
4. I wouldn't spend much time on the trading deadline.
6. Concentrate future spending on extensions especially guys that love being here (Diaz).
Mack, you've done great work on the drafts - I couldn't do it. So many guys, and at an age where a few months can cause teenagers to suddenly come out of nowhere.
ReplyDelete3rd rounder Brandon Sproat may be a sneak Red Prospect - clocked at 100 this spring, and apparently a great change up but needs to continue to refine his command. I am not familiar with him, but 100 and an excellent change is a great starting point.
I know we like more of a track record, but as a reliever, suddenly, Bryce Montes de Oca is pitching like a Red prospect.
Where do you think Sproat and 4th rounder Jacob Reimer fall in the top 20, if you've thought that far?
I have an interesting thought on a Peterson article.
Sproat can hit 100 but lacks the current ability to hit the barn consistently.
DeleteThere were better pitchers left on the board.
Reimer would be an excellent late round pick.
Hey,Soto is a top 5 player and23 years old! When is the last time the Mets had a guy like that? Alvarez,Baty and Vientos might get it done.
ReplyDeleteSoto gets traded to Yanks,fallbacks are Ohtani and Judge! But I think Uncle Steve has his heart set on Soto.
ReplyDeleteI was told Lindor was a top 5 player a couple of years ago. Soto will cost more in years, prospects and total dollars. He also adds to your risk factor. Investing so much in multiple players for a decade or more of time is bonkers. Sounds good today, it wont in the near future. Remember Soto wants over half a billion dollars.
ReplyDeleteI just don't know how anyone can justify trading the top guy in the minors who is 20 and arguably ML ready as well as Baty and Vientos.
Those guys could solve 3 different needs and leave dollars open to fill other needs. I dont mind them trading Vientos/Mauricio. They are more expendable.
Its all about surrounding circumstances. If you could sign Soto strictly as a free agent it makes the crazy cost much more palpable. Similarly if they already had more cost controlled players and didnt have to replace and elite closer, four starting pitchers and a star level CF as well as start thinking about extending Pete I would agree with you.
If we can't fit Soto in the budget, how about Sonia Sotomayor instead? Kidding aside, great discussion back and forth.
ReplyDeleteMack, I think it would be interesting (if they were willing) to post up the views of Gu and Dallas, as outlined here in a "Soto Pros and Cons from the Experts" article
So, the Rangers took Rocker and saved enough money to be able to afford Brick Porter too. I knew Jon Daniels was too smart to just screw up.
ReplyDeleteI'm being told he will go to Clemson
DeleteI'm in the camp on no Soto. I think as great a player as he is, we're going to wipe out the upper levels of our minors and hamstring the payroll when we have a ton of guys to sign or replace. I'm with Dallas. We need cost controlled quality major leaguers so we can extend/sign free agents.
ReplyDeleteThe easy thing to do is trade for Josh Bell for DH/1B time share with Pete, find the best lock down 8th inning guy you can and maybe a better bench bat. Dom Smith ends up somewhere else, even if it's for a nothing prospect, hopefully we get something back for him. That's a team I'd look to ride into the post season with.
If we DO go for Soto, here's how I envision it. Everyone's up for trade EXCEPT Alvarez and Batty. If that can bring Soto back lets do it. Provided he looks healthy you extend DeGrom, Extend Diaz, Extend Bassit start talking about Extending Alonso and McNeil and sign some more bullpen arms. Nimmo becomes the odd man out with Soto here, he'll walk next year in this scenario (and I love Nimmo - he just doesn't fit)
For This season we would have the following lineup...
Nimmo
Soto
Lindor
Alonso
Marte
McNeil
Escobar
Catcher - Maybe Alvarez?
Canha (He's probably DHing / rotating through the OF - I like him in the 9 hope to wrap around to the top of the order)
with DeGrom, Max, CBass, Walker, Cookie/Pederson in the rotation and one more guy to bridge to Diaz that would be SICK.
For the next two year you would have this
Marte
Soto
Lindor
Alonso
McNeil
Batty
Escobar (I'm guessing he DHs / is a utility infielder - Pretty easy to get a veteran to prop up DH if needed)
Alvarez
Cannah
Mostly the same rotation and pitching through extensions.
I doubt we have the prospects to make this happen without Alvarez / Baty but I do have a question.
Can you trade a draft pick this year as a PTBNL as part of the deal (or for any deal)? If so I feel like we should push this narrative with Washington (you're going to be bead for 3-5 years - take all our best younger prospects that will align when you're ready to compete in 2025-27.
Anyways... Baring keeping Alavarez and Batty I'm in the don't trade for Soto camp.
Baty and Alvarez don’t keep you from getting a 5 tool 23 year old, Maybe a5 hundred million dollar contract does but not two prospects.
ReplyDeleteIf you keep Alvarez & Cohen can afford a 400+m payroll. I could be on board. Of course it will never be enough and Mets fans will clamor for Judge, Ohtani and every star that becomes available. We need a balance here. I don't want to straight out buy a championship.
ReplyDeleteSeriously though whats after Soto? Do the Mets go quiet on big deals for half a decade enjoying the fruits of Lindor & Soto (until they get hurt and unproductive) or do you keep piling on 10-15 yr mega deals?
I think an actually interesting comp: Stanton.
ReplyDeleteAt age 24 signed a 13yr extension for the most lucrative deal in baseball. He came up young as well: age 20.
Since signing that deal he has on MVP season but otherwise only finished with MVP votes once. He is oft injured and although an all-star this year the 1.4 WAR he has this season is hardly inspiring.
So in the 8 seasons since he has only had one elite season(7.9WAR) and only one season over 4 WAR.
I think its also safe to say the next 5 years of his contract are not likely to be all that awe inspiring or productive for the 30mil a year he gets paid.
This is the risk of these Mega-deals. Rarely do you get many years of elite production and the backside is almost always below league average.
Soto is younger and arguably better than Stanton. You would get more elite years but he also seems to want a longer contract. People don't like to think about 5 & 10 years from now because it seems so far away.
Maybe none of this means nothing because he is just a 2.5 year rental and no one pays this much or if they do its shorter term higher AAV.
Look at Lindor, no way he gets that deal on the open market last offseason. Same could apply to Soto. The Mets bid against themselves and overpaid by about 100mil.
Reading now the Nats want to offload Corbin in the Soto deal. If the Mets can keep Alvarez (and preferably Baty) then I would be ok with just the 2.5 year rental. Then approach the contract as necessary. No need to force it. They can outspend if they want when he hits FA or get a draft pick. You then get elite talent for 2.5 years without sacrificing your main guys you need to keep cost controlled.
ReplyDelete