Tom Brennan - Don't Write Off Tom Szapucki: A Comparison to David Peterson

Thomas Szapucki, Syracuse Mets - Photo by Herm Card, Herm4444@gmail.com

I have to tell you, back in 2019, I thought the Mets had really blown the David Peterson first round draft pick.

In AA that year, he started 24 games and won just 3 of them while losing 6.  I thought, "how the heck does a first rounder start 24 games and win just 3 of them?"

He also allowed a high 119 hits in 116 innings and fanned 122, and had an ERA of 4.19.

Part of those 3 wins, of course, was the Mets watching his pitch count closely.  You don't go 5 innings as a starter, you can't pick up a win. (I've advocated that the minors change the rule for a starter to go 4 innings to be able to get a win, but that is a subject for another day).

As a major leaguer in 2020, David did just fine...6-2, 3.44 in 50 innings.  What a quantum leap from his 2019 AA performance!

He had a slump in 2021, but rebounded this year so far, and is 13-10 career.   He's walked 86 (a little over 4 per 9 innings) while fanning 193 in 189 career Mets innings.

Tom Szapucki got torched in his one spot start in San Francisco this year.  

Felt bad for him - he was still getting his pitching on track at the time in AAA, shaking off rust, and in SF, the wind was blowing out strong, making a short CF fence even shorter.  He had the decks stacked against him.  

I have a feeling if that game had happened now, with more 2022 innings under his belt to get sharper, he would have done much better.

Thru the All Star Break this year, he is 2-6 in AAA.  

Looks bad - but it's not.  

Same deal as Peterson in 2019 - caution as to his pitch count, due to his injury history, has been keeping him below 5 innings a lot.

But his numbers in AAA this year are far better than Peterson's were in AA in 2019: 

15 starts, 59 innings, 80 Ks (12 per 9), and a 3.51 ERA.

Low innings per start, but he averaged slightly less than 3 inning per start in April and May, but 5 innings per start since.

His last start, 4 innings just before the ASB, was (I surmise) shortened to let other pitchers get work in during the getaway game.

His last 2 starts totaled 10 innings, 9 hits, 2 runs, 2 walks, 15 Ks.  Excellent.  Control has been an issue, but in his last several outings, only 9 walks in 29 innings.  

My guess is the written-off-by-many Mr. Szapucki is ready for a second chance, when one presents itself, or should be a valuable trade chip (lefties are hard to find).  The Szapper has been around forever but is just 26 years and 1 month old, only two months older than another Tommy John survivor, Jacob deGrom, was when he debuted at 25 years, 11 months.

Both of them coincidentally had the TJ surgery and the subsequent nerve realignment surgery, a factoid you might want to ponder - or not.

Me?  

I'd strongly consider keeping him for a Mets bullpen role in 2023.

Why?  I think his abilities compare favorably to those of fellow lefty David Peterson, that's why.

And Peterson?  He's a lot better than that 3-6 version of himself in 24 AA starts in 2019.

Jake threw 67 pitches yesterday, the main objective, while surrendering 4 runs. He and Trevor May are coming back any day now.

Vientos socked another - he sure hits lots of long balls.

Baty? .250 end of May, .301 8 weeks later. Quite a jump.

Gonzales and Gonzalez both surrendered 3 runs in a 6-1 Bingo loss.

St Lucie? Omar De Los Santos was up 5 times, fanned 5 times. Remarkable consistency.

Great 2 game series. Just sad that stellar Max got an ill-deserved ND.