The New York Mets had a rough time down in Atlanta this week. They lost starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to injuries in the first two games of the Atlanta series, although it looks like Walker will only miss one start. Their infield defense took a big hit, losing Luis Guillorme and Eduardo Escobar to the I.L. The Mets' offense seems to be in hit-or-miss mode since the series against the Cincinnati Reds with run totals of 1, 1, 6, 1, 0, 9, 2, 7, 8, and 1 through Saturday's doubleheader split with the Phillies. They lost all but one of the games in which they scored 2 runs or fewer.
Meanwhile, the Braves win almost every day. Since June 1, Atlanta's record has been 52-20. Over a 162-game season, that would translate to 117 wins — one game better than the MLB record for wins in a season. Eight of those losses came against the Mets, meaning Atlanta has only lost 12 games against the rest of baseball from the beginning of July through last night's games. I doubt they will sustain that pace for the next month and a half, but I guess we'll find out. I'm not going to go on and on about the Braves here. They are a better team than I thought they were. Not that I ever thought they were nearly as bad as their 23-27 record heading into June, but I thought they were a club that would struggle to reach 90 wins, and that's clearly not true.
My focus is on the Mets, and I believe this past week has raised some interesting questions. One is about Carrasco. Carlos has had an excellent season for the Mets this year. Without him, they might not have survived the Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom injuries.
On the other hand, I'm not sure of the consensus of opinion that sees exercising Carrasco's $14 million team option for 2023 as a "no-brainer." Carlos turns 36 next March. Tossing out the pandemic season, Carlos has pitched 80 and 53.2 innings in his last two 162-game seasons, and 126.1 so far in 2022. It remains to be seen how many more he contributes this year.
I understand that $14 million isn't a huge outlay for a starting pitcher in today's game. Still, it's hard to evaluate how many innings it might be reasonable to expect from Carlos next year, and at what level of performance. If you feel you could expect around 130 innings at the exactly league-average ERA+ of 100 he's chipped in with this season, it probably is a no-brainer at $14 million. But it wouldn't be shocking to see Carrasco's performance go off a cliff at age 36, either.
I wrote a post on the decisions Billy Eppler's front office must make on the starting pitchers this winter. Pitchers definitely returning are Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi, and David Peterson. Everyone else represents a decision to be made. Moreover, these decisions won't be made in a vacuum.
I think the Mets will probably want an answer on deGrom before they make any other decision. If they can retain Jake, how much they have to pay him will affect other judgments. Presumably, that will be somewhere in the $40-50 million per year range. He's making $33.5 million this year, so that's a healthy jump. But if the Mets hold onto Jacob deGrom, they are looking for third, fourth, and fifth starters along with some important depth. If not, there is more pressure to find a top-quality pitcher to take Jake's place.
My 2023 rotation would be:
ReplyDeleteSP1 JAKE
SP2 MAX
SP3 BASSETT (EXERCISE MUTUAL ON)
SP4 PETERSON
SP5 McGill
Nobody in the system is up to crack the rotation. Guys like Butto and Fishrr will get a look see but it will be at least another year for guys like Hamel to step up here
Is this enough?
Yes.
If no one gets injured.
I see it exactly the same way.
ReplyDeleteI like Mack's rotation, and think it is plausible, though expensive to retain Jacob deGrom. The option on Bassitt has become the no-brainer. He fits on this team, he fits with this staff, and he will provide valuable starts in '23.
ReplyDeleteAt 36, I don't expect Carrasco to deliver the kind of W-L record he has this year, and I think Mike is right that there may not be a lot of innings in him. So although $14M is not a lot for a good starting pitcher in the current environment, it IS a lot for <100 innings filling for an injured starter. Eppler may have to look elsewhere for that because to Mike's point, there is not enough ready now in the talent pipeline. You have to provision for multiple lost pitchers in a season.
I'd be surprised if Bassitt agreed to that mutual 1 year option. He can certainly get a multi-year contract somewhere and at his age I just can't see him putting that off for another year. I think they're going to have to resign him to keep him
ReplyDeleteI’m thinking all five are back, Peterson and McGill are the backups.
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteExcellent article. Would appreciate your thoughts on our hitters for 2023. Some interesting decisions will have to be made there as well.