It was a great feeling for Mets fans to see Max Scherzer, then Jacob deGrom return to the starting rotation. We finally had that killer rotation of deGrom, Scherzer, Bassitt, Walker, and Carrasco in place. It lasted for two turns, but fortunately our two Aces have remained intact and we are back to four of the five.
Now the concern is twofold – “we never give the Aces any run support”; and “as soon as they leave the game, the bullpen gives it up”. We can all admit to having tasted this whine because our expectations for games with either Jake or Max pitching are extremely high – a win every time. Deep down, we all know that there are no guarantees in baseball, but it is difficult not to get disappointed when we don’t win a game that was started by one of the two best pitchers in baseball. The gut reaction is to find someone to blame, but actually there is some reasoning behind it – so let’s address each concern.
“We never give Jake/Max any run support”
When opposing managers see that a series against the Mets is coming up, they know it will be difficult to score runs against the Mets’ aces. So they will do their best to line up their best pitchers to face them in an attempt to make it a close game and steal a victory. It only makes sense that the Mets would score less runs against the opponents’ best pitchers than they would against the rest of the staff. That is by definition, “less run support”, and it is totally predictable.
“The bullpen gives it up when Jake/Max leaves the game”
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are touted as being among the best in the game for a reason – they have great stuff and know how to use it effectively against opposing batters. Both are extremely competitive, and when a threat develops, they perform at their best. deGrom has a 99.3mph fastball, and an xBA (expected batting average) of .173. Scherzer has an array of nasty pitches and gives up an xBA of .200. These are awesome numbers – the league average xBA is .241. The team is also blessed to have Edwin Diaz as a closer, who sports a 99.1mph fastball, nasty slider, and gives up an xBA of .151. The problem is not that they are so good, but that everyone can’t be that good. Any middle reliever that has to bridge between one of those aces and our star closer is going to be throwing easier pitches to hit. Those middle relievers have to be very crafty to mix things up enough to keep the batter from catching up to pitches with a little less movement or a little less accurate positioning on the corners. Let’s take a look at the statistics:
Other than Ottavino, the middle relief staff is much more likely to yield base runners and runs. Now, before you show up at Billy Eppler’s front door with pitchforks and torches for not acquiring a top middle reliever at the trade deadline, you should know that there was not a great deal of talent at that position for a reasonable price. Ottavino (17) and Lugo (15) are in the NL top 10 for holds this season, and of the other eight, only Joe Mantiply (17) seemed to be available at the deadline.
Now, that doesn’t mean that there weren’t people out there that could make it better. The Phillies added Robertson as a closer – he could have been a set-up guy for the Mets. The Yankees added Scott Effross who had a .201 xBA and .231 xERA with the Cubs. But I’m sure that the Mets brass was thinking about the return of Drew Smith who was very effective early in the year and Tylor Megill. Those two could significantly strengthen the bullpen for the short and long innings requirements, respectively.
Buck Showalter and Jeremy Heffner are going to have to work with what they have for the rest of this season, and that means taking a strategic approach to who relieves. In my opinion, you can’t bring in Trevor May to replace Jacob deGrom because they both rely on a strong fastball and late breaking slider. Since May’s fastball is more than 3mph slower and his slider a little less sharp, batters see the same pitches, but easier. I think it is better to follow deGrom with Lugo who relies on bigger, slower breaking balls for weapons – a look the batter has not seen. Similarly if you are following Scherzer or Bassitt and their arrays of nasty pitches, don’t throw another breaking ball at them – now bring in May and his fastball. Of course that’s easier said than done because everyone needs their rest. Smith and Megill will make those choices easier.
Very interesting analysis. We do keep sayin wait until Megill and Smith return, though, which is starting to feel like what we kept saying about deGrom in 2021, who never came back. I hope these guys get here soon.
ReplyDeleteThat was really well said, I agree wholeheartedly. Not getting a high leverage RP is puzzling to me and I don't buy the "incremental % increase" excuse. The 8th inning guy is the 3rd most important pitcher and pitching, especially in the playoffs, is 90% of the game. That's a really important role in the PS.
ReplyDeleteThey clearly must believe in McGill and Lugo has pitched better recently. You can see over the last few weeks that Buck has become increasingly more judicious in how he's using the BP in order to keep them fresh and also to challenge the fringe guys to step up and see what he's got when the money is on the line. Buck is always 3 moves ahead of everyone else. Whats done is done and Eppler and Buck deserve our trust so they have mine but, IMO, the 8th inning is very worrisome.
Cohen’s statement yesterday that he is driving a Brinks truck up to his investment firm warehouse and showering Jake with the contents will allow for one more solid piece in the pen
ReplyDeleteBTW... I did some research on "mutual options.
They are close to none ever exercised
Doesn't look good for a return of Bassett.
Well done, Paul
ReplyDeleteI've never understood "mutual options". What possible good is an agreement which is not binding on either side? Imagine a wedding oath of "till death do you part, unless either of you opts out after a year".
ReplyDeleteThat said, if the mutual option is declined by either party, it doesn't mean that the player is "gone". If he and the team are both happy, it's simply a matter of negotiating a deal that's better for both.
IMO, Bassitt is worth keeping, and the amount of the option is just a starting point.
Should have packaged Vientos,Mauricio for Hader
ReplyDeleteSince joining the Padres, Hader has pitched 4.2 innings, giving up TWELVE RUNS on TWELVE HITS.
ReplyDeleteWorth 2 top prospects? He makes Givens, and even J-Rod, look like Mariano.
Should have packaged Vientos and Mauricio for Iglesias.
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