Reese Kaplan -- Fast Forward to Personnel Choices for 2023

Some folks will likely claim I'm rushing past the end of the 2022 season, but with all of the minor changes the Mets made during the push towards October baseball it makes you wonder who will be a part of the future team and who will not.  

Right now the club has to be satisfied with the early returns from Daniel Vogelbach in his lefty hitting platoon role as he's been good at not only swinging the bat, but also in judging pitches to draw walks.  Granted, when you're built closer to a football offensive lineman than a sprinter, getting on base is helpful no matter how it happens.  

Then there's the right half of the platoon whose tenure here is even shorter.  Still, Darin Ruf has appeared to complement what Vogelbach does from the left side rather nicely and it appears in the early outset that Billy Eppler looks to have cobbled together an effective aggregate DH between the two of them.  Already they are looking far better than the departed J.D. Davis and the injured and recovering Dom Smith.  

(Mack has already volunteered that he thinks Smith is ripe for a DFA future, though he's done enough during some of the past years that his current batting average and power struggles could be written off as a bad season and not a terminal baseball condition.)

Where it starts to get really interesting, however, is not with these newcomers but with the pending class of free agents facing the Mets when the 2022 season and post season come to close.  

While everyone in Queens is proud and smug about the depth of Steve Cohen's pockets, the fact is that not every single player who is eligible for free agency is going to be granted an big ticket contract.  After all, despite the fervor and thrill of fighting for a pennant, the fact remains that baseball is a business and you must pick carefully how you spend your money.  Otherwise you could wind up with the next Robinson Cano.

So who is eligible to sell himself to the highest bidder in 2023?  Well, it's a rather lengthy list and there are going to be some tough decisions ahead for the front office.

Number on on the list has to be two-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom.  He has a clause in his contract to opt out at this season's end.  While the Mets have certainly treated him fairly and compensated him well, human nature being what it is suggests that homegrown Jake may want to be paid more like newcomer Max Scherzer.  

While the goodwill and quality he delivers certainly suggest he's worth every penny of a $40 million contract, the nagging doubt that will take a lot of private talks between Steve Cohen, Sandy Alderson and Billy Eppler is his injury history.  There's nothing wrong with paying him what he's worth when he's pitching, but at the same time you don't want to pay him $40 million to miss more than half a season either.  

Of course, allowing him to depart and sell his services elsewhere will very nearly replicate the PR fiasco caused when Tom Seaver was sent packing (and again when they gambled and lost that no one would take an older pitcher who was left unprotected).  It's a tough call but I'd wager the Mets will not let deGrom go without a fair fight and decent offer.  The ramifications of him winning his next Cy Young Award in another uniform would be crushing to the fans.

Following closely behind deGrom is the closer the Mets always hoped they had when they traded for him in Edwin Diaz.  Right now he's putting on a show with the strikeouts and saves compiling rapidly while allowing almost no one on base and keeping an ERA under 1.50.  He's right to expect a sizable increase in pay and still only 28 years of age.  

It would not be crazy for the Mets to look at a Lindor-type deal to lock him up for a decade, but the pay rate for closers has not yet caught up to All Star position players.  Still, no matter how you slice it, he's in that $20 million per year range.  The question is for how long will the Mets ante up to keep him around (and risk injury which could render the expensive contract useless)?

Where it gets truly hairy is that going into 2023 the only starting pitcher for certain to be in a Mets uniform is Max Scherzer.  While that's a great start, think about it for a moment.  We already identified deGrom having an opt-out clause.  He's not alone.  

Taijuan Walker can do the same.  Carlos Carrasco has an innings trigger on his deal and Chris Bassitt has the traditional free agent option based upon years served.  That's 4 out of 5 starting pitchers envisioned for 2022 all eligible to be out of here.

Unfortunately, the departure gate doesn't stop there.  Assuming they do retain Diaz in the bullpen, he can't do it all alone.  Trevor May is reaching free agency once again as is Adam Ottavino.  Seth Lugo get his first chance to see what other teams think he's worth.  That bullpen could go from pretty formidable to very empty without making some hard decisions.  Even the most recent bullpen addition Mychal Givens has an mutual option for 2023 which could make him seeking greener (as in wallet) pastures.  

If there's one slightly silver lining for the club it's the fact that only one position player is facing free agency, center fielder Brandon Nimmo.  His history is familiar to all fans -- an on-base machine when he's healthy, he's turned himself into an above average fielder and seems ready to contribute with walks, hits, power and speed as well.  It's the injury issue that makes the businessmen pause before ponying up to pay him long term in the high compensation stratosphere as he's not shown himself capable of staying on the field.  During his career which began back in 2016 he has only once eclipsed the 100 game figure as he's had to fight back from all kinds of physical issues. 

 Right now he's a relative bargain at $7 million, but if he's going to deliver over 3 in WAR then it suggests he's worth more like $21 million.  Assuming there would be some hometown discount for the club sticking with him through his many IL stints, still you'd figure he's probably looking at something similar to what Starling Marte received this year -- a hair under $18 million per year.  That's not chump change.

While it's not going to be easy figuring out who is worth keeping and who should be wished well but shown the door, the fact is that you have to construct a very competitive roster to face this kind of problem.  If this was a Terry Collins/Sandy Alderson team during the Wilpon era there would be no question about widening the exit door to avoid paying the big bucks to anyone not named deGrom or Cespedes.  

Now it may work out far differently, but I would certainly expect that some of the mid tier players are the ones most likely on the bubble if they intend to fork over six figure deals to the best of the best.  Who all do you think should stay?  Who should go?  Who is still in your undecided column?