Mack's Mets: Tom Brennan - Mets' Historical First Round Picks

Low draft grades can really muck things up over time.

Mack this year took us on a long, fun journey through "the draftables".

Lots of weeds - he brought his Mack Ultra Weed Whacker in numerous articles to clear away the debris.

Then the Mets turned speculation into reality - they drafted 22 guys in 20 rounds.

Now, we'll see how those draftees do, once they have put ink to paper.

Before I do, we all know first rounders sometimes fail, and so I wanted to look again at my favorite 2022 underdog Mets prospect:

Wyatt Young.

The 2021 15th rounder played in the Florida Complex Rookie League in 2021 and hit .370 in under 100 at bats. Usually, that means, "hello, St Lucie." Jump one level. Instead he has spent virtually his whole first full season first in AAA (a jump of FOUR levels and the only guy hitting there in April) and then got bumped down to AA.

He struggled in AA a bit for a few stretches, but now has a 12 game hit streak, and in the last 11 games, has 17 hits and 10 walks!!!! On base 27 times in 11 games! Doing what no one else does (going from rookie Complex ball straight to the high minors), he has hit an utterly commendable .273/.358/.377 in 86 AA and AAA games. Little guy has 4 HRs, 3 of those in the past 4 weeks. Defensively, the little guy has just 3 errors at 2B and 7 at SS. "Just" 67 Ks in 374 plate appearances. Wow. Wyatt seems like a great utility player in development. Honestly, 27 times in 11 games? Sounds like he could survive in the majors right now.

But back to first rounders - how did first rounders from 1965 through 2022 rate, you ask me (well, I know you did not ask me, but I will tell you anyway).

I took into account in my subjective rankings where the guy fell in round 1 - so, if a Paul Wilson was first overall, and Anthony Kay was 31st overall, and they performed the same, Wilson would get a worse grade.

First, a ranking by my assigned grade. Lots and lots of low scores.

Drafting can be a crap shoot, but shoot, there's a lot of crap here.

F's? I count 22 of them.

D+, D, D-? I count 9 of them.

So more than half the Mets' first round picks were Ds and Fs.

Nine more in the C category, so 40 were C or lower, and fewer than 20 were As or Bs.

You really want your long-term scorecard to read the opposite.

Thoughts?

SEASON	PLAYER	POS	PICK	GRADE
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	A++	Should have been a HOF
2022	Parada	C	11	A+	I’ll give him an A+ and let him earn it.
2022 2020	Jett Williams Crow	IF CF	14 19	A A	I am hoping he is a Crow equivalent. Think he’ll be great; time will tell.
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	A	Great pitcher for a lousy hitting team
1980	Darryl Strawberry	OF	1	A	Should have been an A++
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	A	Fine, fine hitter
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	A-	108 game winner; none with the Mets.
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	A-	315 HR, 981 RBIs for #17? Yes.
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	A-	Lee had a very good, long career
2011	Brandon Nimmo	RF	13	A-	A surprisingly good pick
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	A-	Considered an A, but his defense not good.
1992	Preston Wilson	SS-OF	9	A-	Very solid career: 141 and 121 RBI seasons.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	B+	So far so good for an overall # 20
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	B+	Great against righties, tough, no power
2019	Brett Baty	3B	12	B	His recent hitting in AA gives hope.
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	B	Great pick – until he got hurt. 2.5 fine years.
2014	Michael Conforto	OF	10	B-	Did enough to squeeze him into a B-.
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	C	Decent for a 20^th overall pick. No NYM.
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	C	Powerless .275 utility hitter with speed.
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	C	Modest career, not a bad pick for # 18
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	C	A solid, long career, but not #1 overall caliber
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	C-	Not yet as good as Milledge. .246/.308/.424.
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	C-	A few promising stretches, but a failure.
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	C-	Workhorse, but you want more out of # 9
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	C-	Injury prevented him from being more.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	C-	Could have been a fine player, but injuries.
2003	Lastings Milledge	OF	12	C-	Should have been better. .269/.338/.395.
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	D+	910 career PAs, .233. Hit .195 with NYM.
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	D+	Hurt. So far, 5-4, 3.94 ERA. NO NYM.
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	D	Career .252 in 1,281 PAs, none with NYM.
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	D	50 career Abs, .220
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	D	Fizzled – in minors currently.
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	D	Perfect game, bum arm, lousy.
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	D-	12-14, 5.65. No NYM.
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	D-	Career .216 in 920 PAs, 27 with NYM.
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	D-	Injured pitcher. 40-48, 4.86 for a #1 overall.
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	F	Rich Who? 11 career PAs, and he walked 1X.
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	F	.167 in 84 career PAs, none with NYM.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	F	Butch who? .162 in 89 career Abs
1972	Richard Bengston	C	13	F	Richard who?
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	F	Injured catcher
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	F	Minor league pitcher who did not pitch much.
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	F	Injured pitcher
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	F	Career minor leaguer.
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	F	Never draft a guy named Alfred, OK, Shirley?
1986	Lee May	OF	21	F	Wrong Lee May.
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	F	Abner Doubleday did not like that pick.
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	F	Great name for a FB player; lousy BB player
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	F	Good GM
1992	Christopher Roberts	OF-LH	18	F	Never mde it out of the minors.
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF-RH	13	F	Tom who? Never made it out of the minors.
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	F	Terrible pick, uh huh, uh huh.
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	F	Proctor was a Gamble – that failed.
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	F	Cliff who? 2-1, 4.13, 28 innings with Atl.
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	F	Randy who?
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	F	Bust.
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	F	Lousy minor leaguer. Lousy pick.
1970	George Ambrow	SS	23	F	George who?
2018	Jarred Kelenic	OF	6	Inc.	Jury is out. So far, not so good. Got us Edwin.
2021	Kumar	RHP	10	Inc.	Re-drafted in 2022 by Texas.

And now, by year:

SEASON	PLAYER	POS	PICK	GRADE
2022	Parada	C	11	A+	I’ll give him an A+ and let him earn it.
2022 2021	Jett Williams Kumar	IF RHP	14 10	A Inc.	I am hoping he is a Crow equivalent. Re-drafted in 2022 by Texas.
2020	Crow	CF	19	A	Think he’ll be great; time will tell.
2019	Brett Baty	3B	12	B	His recent hitting in AA gives hope.
2018	Jarred Kelenic	OF	6	Inc.	Jury is out. So far, not so good. Got us Edwin.
2017	David Peterson	LHP	20	B+	So far so good for an overall # 20
2016	Anthony Kay	LHP	31	D	Fizzled – in minors currently.
2016	Justin Dunn	RHP	19	D+	Hurt. So far, 5-4, 3.94 ERA.
2014	Michael Conforto	OF	10	B-	Did enough to squeeze him into a B-.
2013	Dominic Smith	1B	11	C-	Not yet as good as Milledge. .246/.308/.424.
2012	Gavin Cecchini	SS	12	F	Bust.
2011	Brandon Nimmo	RF	13	A-	A surprisingly good pick
2010	Matt Harvey	RHP	7	B	Great pick – until he got hurt. 2.5 fine years.
2008	Reese Havens	SS	22	C-	Could have been a fine player, but injuries.
2008	Ike Davis	1B	18	C-	A few promising stretches, but a failure.
2005	Michael Pelfrey	RHP	9	C-	Workhorse, but you want more out of # 9
2004	Philip Humber	RHP	3	D	Perfect game, bum arm, lousy.
2003	Lastings Milledge	OF	12	D+	Should have been better. .269/.338/.395.
2002	Scott Kazmir	LHP	15	A-	108 game winner; none with the Mets.
2001	Aaron Heilman	RHP	18	C	Modest career, not a bad pick for # 18
2000	Billy Traber	LHP	16	D-	12-14, 5.65. No NYM.
1998	Jason Tyner	CF	21	C	Powerless .275 utility hitter with speed.
1997	Geoff Goetz	LHP	6	F	Minor league pitcher who did not pitch much.
1996	Robert Stratton	OF	13	F	Career minor leaguer.
1995	Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	18	F	Lousy minor leaguer. Lousy pick.
1994	Terrence Long	1B	20	C	Decent for a 20^th overall pick. No NYM.
1994	Paul Wilson	RHP	1	D-	Injured pitcher. 40-48, 4.86 for a #1 overall.
1993	Kirk Presley	RHP	8	F	Terrible pick, uh huh, uh huh.
1992	Christopher Roberts	OF-LH	18	F	Never mde it out of the minors.
1992	Preston Wilson	SS-OF	9	A-	Very solid career: 141 and 121 RBI seasons.
1991	Alfred Shirley	OF	18	F	Never draft a guy named Alfred, OK, Shirley?
1990	Jeromy Burnitz	OF	17	A-	315 HR, 981 RBIs for #17? Yes.
1989	Alan Zinter	C	24	F	.167 in 84 career PAs, none with NYM.
1988	Dave Proctor	RHP	21	F	Proctor was a Gamble – that failed.
1987	Chris Donnels	3B	24	D+	910 career PAs, .233. Hit .195 with NYM.
1986	Lee May	OF	21	F	Wrong Lee May.
1985	Gregg Jefferies	SS	20	A-	Considered an A, but his defense not good.
1984	Shawn Abner	OF	1	F	Abner Doubleday did not like that pick.
1983	Stan Jefferson	OF	20	D-	Career .216 in 920 PAs, 27 with NYM.
1983	Eddie Williams	3B	4	D	Career .252 in 1,281 PAs, none with NYM.
1982	Dwight Gooden	RHP	5	A++	Should have been a HOF
1981	Terry Blocker	OF	4	F	Great name for a FB player; lousy BB player
1980	John Gibbons	C	24	D	50 career Abs, .220
1980	Billy Beane	OF	23	F	Good GM
1980	Darryl Strawberry	OF	1	A	Should have been an A++
1979	Tim Leary	RHP	2	C-	Injury prevented him from being more.
1978	Hubie Brooks	SS	3	A	Fine, fine hitter
1977	Wally Backman	SS	16	B+	Great against righties, tough, no power
1976	Tom Thurberg	OF-RH	13	F	Tom who? Never made it out of the minors.
1975	Butch Benton	C	6	F	Butch who? .162 in 89 career Abs
1974	Cliff Speck	RHP	17	F	Cliff who? 2-1, 4.13, 28 innings with Atl.
1973	Lee Mazzilli	OF	14	A-	Lee had a very good, long career
1972	Richard Bengston	C	13	F	Richard who?
1971	Rich Puig	2B	14	F	Rich Who? 11 career PAs, and he walked 1X.
1970	George Ambrow	SS	23	F	George who?
1969	Randy Sterling	RHP	4	F	Randy who?
1968	Tim Foli	SS	1	C	A solid, long career, but not #1 overall caliber
1967	Jon Matlack	LHP	4	A	Great pitcher for a lousy hitting team
1966	Steve Chilcott	C	1	F	Injured catcher
1965	Les Rohr	LHP	2	F	Injured pitcher

Vogelbach grand slam? Lots of new recruits to the Vogelbach Fan Club, for sure.

Mychal Givens? Destroys his nice season ERA in his horrible Mets debut. Bassitt? Great. Nimmo? Suddenly red hot. McNeil ditto.

Bring on the Braves. Let's win 4 of 5.

Alvarez? Hit his 4th HR. "Hit" isn't the right word.

It was a tape measure job, that apparently completely cleared the stadium:

https://www.milb.com/video/alvarez-crushes-4th-triple-a-hr?t=playerid-682626

After his 2 for 24, he's up to .200 and his OPS is already up to .822. He's ready.

15 comments:

Mack AdeAugust 4, 2022 at 8:38 AM
This is an excellent post. Lots of work here. Hope it's appreciated.

The Mets used to consistently suck at doing this but they have gotten better in the past 10 years.

Mark my word. Parada will be one of the great ones.
Tom BrennanAugust 4, 2022 at 8:44 AM
Thanks Mack. Parada great AND Alvarez great? That is NOT Mets-like. Alvarez bomb was a titanic one - from what I can see, there is a lot to clear to get a ball out of the stadium there - and it appears he did. Power is right there with Alonso.

Baty is looking like a very good first rounder lately.

While I would say Judge had some question marks when drafted, it figures the Mets would grab Gavin Cecchini + in picking Dom Smith. He has had some moments, but he is a bust. Judge is supreme.

It is starting to look like the Mets are better than the Yankees. Cole got rocked in a second straight start.
Paul ArticulatesAugust 4, 2022 at 8:58 AM
Lots of good work here. Draft picks always come with a lot of uncertainty about how they will do when they face more talented opponents. This list really shows that some of them excelled while others failed.
TexasGusCCAugust 4, 2022 at 9:03 AM
Professor Tom, I think you need to grade via a curve. For example, A- for Brandon Nimmo? Oh man, what are you expecting on draft day? And punishing the drafting for injuries? You cannot forecast those. Harvey was an A, easily. Paul Wilson was a B+, at least. Dom has been a B. The ultimate F is Chilcott, not sure what they were thinking.

Very entertaining piece!

BTW, Simon Juan hit a HR! And is up to .221! Yippee!

Can anyone find out why Fanas hasn’t played in forever and has been stuck at 21 games in the stats?
bill metsiacAugust 4, 2022 at 9:05 AM
I always cringe when I see the name Steve Chilcott, usually followed by how he failed and was drafted ahead of others who became stars.
But Chilcott was derailed very early in his career in the lower minors by a shoulder i jury he never recovered from.

I understand giving the label to those who play, struggle, and disappear. But declaring a pick a failure through no fault of his own has always seemed harsh to me.
D JAugust 4, 2022 at 9:51 AM
Tom,
If I remember correctly Alan Zinter was a highly rated catcher when drafted by the Mets. He was moved to first base where he continued to struggle. He was traded for Rico Brogna who did well for the Mets. So I guess Zinter's value was not in his time with the Mets, but rather his part in a trade for a player who was successful.
RDS900August 4, 2022 at 10:35 AM
Only a "B" for Baty? Should be an "A".
Tom BrennanAugust 4, 2022 at 10:35 AM
Brogna was a goodie. Chilcott selection changed the course of franchise history. Seaver, Koosman, Ryan, and Reggie? Wow.
Tom BrennanAugust 4, 2022 at 10:38 AM
I saw Ziegler finally pitched. Did not get out of the first inning - wild/ 2 outs, 3 walks. Well, it's been a while since he pitched.

Joel Diaz followed up with 6 innings of 1 hit shutout ball, 6 Ks. Very nice.

Gary SeagrenAugust 4, 2022 at 11:00 AM
I will always believe knowing M.Donald that race was a factor in the decision. Chilcott was white and Reggie was an outspoken Black man in very volatile time. I still remember Seaver's quote from long ago in regards to Grant when he described him as "The Plantation owner" which pretty much says it all.
Tom BrennanAugust 4, 2022 at 11:33 AM
Gus, Simon Juan is like a 1st rounder. I'll just say his grade in "incomplete."

Yeah I weighted a little towards reality of the unforeseeable injury. No one like Harvey - he was Max without the durability.

Ray, i got Baty at a B when I drafted this a few weeks ago - I kept bumping the article back - he's above B now. If he can keep his Ks lower, he is entering "A" territory.
Tom BrennanAugust 4, 2022 at 11:33 AM
Gary, I won't be visiting Grant's Tomb.
Jon MessingerAugust 4, 2022 at 3:33 PM
Bill: in life, you do all the research etc that you can, and make a decision. even if your thought process was right, but things go wrong, you need to grade accordingly. you do a lot of 'wrongs' over the years, you get results like the Mets frequently do. it's good to see that the last 7 picks in a row have gotten high grades, hopefully we keep the drafting team together and the team keeps getting better. Tom: I agree that Reggie was the obvious choice, and Gary that Donald M's prejudice pushed them to Steve Chilcott, but the other draft pick they missed out on because of drafting Chilcott was passing on Johnny Bench the next year; because they had Steve, they didn't need Johnny! can you imagine Seaver, Koosman, Ryan, Reggie Jackson and Johnny Bench! the Big Blue Machine!!
Remember1969August 4, 2022 at 7:22 PM
I am not sure, but I think Alan Zinter is the answer to the trivia question "who is the first round draft pick to make his major league debut at the oldest age?"
Remember1969August 4, 2022 at 7:23 PM
Zinter was 34 years 30 days old when he debuted with the Astros a full 13 years after being the Mets 1989 first round pick

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8/4/22

Tom Brennan - Mets' Historical First Round Picks - a Recap

15 comments: