"In the year 2025" - sounds like a Zager and Evans song.
The 2022 division battle is raging, and the Mets have a real shot at 2022 World Series glory. So, of course, I am looking at 2025 today.
Eppler et al have to look well ahead while navigating 2022, so why can't I?
2025 Opening Day Roster? Here goes:
1B - Pete Alonso - of course - who else, but Hall of Fame Pete? Move the fences in 5 feet and get him to Cooperstown. Or don't, and he can watch others get inducted.
2B - It could be Jeff McNeil, but he will be a free agent and he will turn 33 in April 2025. If not Jeff, change the last two f's to two t's....how about Jett Williams? Anthony DiComo of SNY already has Jett as his #5 Mets prospect. I’ll high-five him for that.
I think Jeffie Mac will be moved to the outfield to make room at 2B for the speedster Jett. Two full minor league seasons ought to have Jett just about ready for lift off by OD 2025. 14th overall picks develop and rise fast if they stay healthy.
SS - Francisco Lindor - year 4 in his 10-year contract. Still here - still very good.
3B - Brett Baty, who could (should?) be playing at an All Star level by then. And is now a NY Met,
Util. IF - the immediate knee-jerk might be Luis Guillorme, but he will be a year from free agency and there is a Guillorme clone in the Mets system right now, with seemingly a bit more power, in Wyatt Young. I think the younger, cheaper Young will be the man.
LF - Jeff McNeil - somebody in the outfield has to hit .300.
CF - Brandon Nimmo - how do you not retain such a pest to opposing pitchers?
RF - Alex Ramirez - he will be 23 by OD 2025, and more than ready.
Back up OF - Ronny Mauricio - can also play the infield. His big-time HR bat could carve out a lot of playing time for him. He'll be 24.
Back up OF - Starling Marte - I could be very wrong, but he will be in the last year of his Mets deal and the now-33 year old OF will be 36. Age tends to catch up, and I will roll with the assumption that Marte 2025 will not be as potent as Marte 2022.
Other OF-possibles - Omar De Los Santos, who has speed and power, but only if he can figure out the excessive K issue - the righty hitting lefties better will help his cause. It could also be the oft-injured Jake Mangum or Stanley Consuegra - or maybe even 2022's 75th overall pick Nick Morabito. Nick will turn 22 shortly after the 2022 season begins, and I think it more likely he is a 2026 roster add than 2025.
DH - the HR Bomber, Mark Vientos.
He had 2 hits, including his 20th HR, and is now hitting .277 with 59 RBIs in 300 ABs and 82 games despite a 10 for 64, 1 HR, 8 RBI April. He's had 19 HRs in his last 61 games, a heckuva pace (projecting to almost 50 over a 150 game span), and has hit .310 since May 1.
So, those are killer AAA #'s since May 1.
His problem (besides his glove and slowness) is just playing in 63 game in his hot May, June, July, and half of August, which is too few and which suppresses his numbers....Alonso got in an incredible 159 minors and Fall games in 2018, with 42 HRs and 146 RBIs. He got the huge, "do not ignore me" RBI totals by playing every single game. Mark needs to play almost every game to also make his #'s inarguably huge.
In 2018, Alonso was 23 and compiled his #'s a great extent in AA; Mark is 22 and his 2022 #'s are 100% AAA. Something to keep in mind.
I think there is 40 HR MLB Vientos potential by 2025, when he will be just 25. One of the next two guys in my write up can share DH duties when not catching.
C - Francisco Alvarez and Kevin Parada. Two doses of sheer thunder. The NL will tremble. Both will be ready to be lethal in 2025. Alvarez will be a star, and Parada an emerging star, who one ranking party already has as baseball's # 40 prospect.
STARTERS
Dom Hamel - great season in the minors in A ball this year.
David Peterson - he'd already be a # 3 or better starter on some big league teams.
Blake Tidwell make loves Tidwell, the overall # 11 selection. He'll be ready.
Jake or Max, not both - of course, I could be wrong, but 2025 is the year Max will turn 41 and Jake will turn 37. Both of course are absolute freaks in 2022.
Matt Allan - he will be the rotation workhorse. Hey, if Wheeler can throw as many innings as he does, why not Allan?
Not in that rotation order - they just came to mind that way.
BULLPEN
Edwin Diaz - I expect him to blow his next save some time in 2025. When he does, he will still pick up the win.
Bryce Montes de Oca - emerging 100 MPH beast. The return of Dick Radatz.
Calvin Ziegler - flamethrower could be in the rotation, but I am betting on the pen.
- those 3 guys could fan 400 out of the pen.
Javier Atencio - talented 20 year old. Taking a flier on him.
Joel Diaz - he'll still be young, but he is showing real early promise.
Michel Otanez - Mack's guy, so the hard-throwing hurler better deliver.
Tylor Megill - swing man extraordinaire between pen and starting rotation. He and Bryce will look like half of a football offensive line. They'll call Alonso "Tiny".
Jose Butto (or pick another name, like Christian Scott or a Keyshawn Askew. If you prefer pastels, lefty Nate Lavender could be your man.)
Maybe young 20 year old Douglas Orellana is one of them. Right now, in the FCL, the righty, in his last 2 months, has gone 23.2 innings, fanned 40, allowed 11 hits and 6 earned runs, walked 12 guys in 15 innings in July, but just 2 in 8.2 IP in August. He recorded 11 outs in his last outing, 9 by K - and 9 out of 11 is an attention grabber.
So, count me impressed by Douglas. Possibly a mid-2025 pen arm, although projecting that amount of success is certainly premature. But he has gotten onto the Brennan Doppler radar.
Whoever is on the 26 man roster on opening day in the pen, you can rest assured that a string of other pen arms will follow along during the season. They have used 23 so far this year and over 30 in 2021, so there is always a call to arms.
Can that 2025 roster, which bears little resemblance to the 2022 roster, compete for a World Series crown? I think so, because I see a ton of talent above, but time will tell.
If it doesn't measure up, it won't be that roster.
Lots of names on this year's roster are not reflected above. They will be 3 years older, and most will be in decline - and gone. We thank them for their service.
Wyatt Young - Brennan Update # 50:
Through Sunday's game, the 22 year old youngster, who debuted briefly in the FCL rookie ball league last year, then skipped up multiple levels to AA/AAA this year, has been on base 152 times in 95 games.
He should be nicknamed "Occupier" because he gets on base a whole lot.
And in 120 pro games in 2021 and 2022, he is at a splendid .294/.377/.399.
Fields mighty well, too.
Impressed? I constantly am.
So, I mention him a lot, especially since no one else ever does.
He's not in the Mets' Top 30 on their website. A bunch of injured and underperforming players are, though. Just not the good-fielding guy who jumped from rookie ball to AA/AAA this year who gets on base all the time.
Well, he is on my list at # 18. And I might be conservative with that.
Is that OK that I mention him a lot? I hope so, and it doesn't feel like I'm nagging or bothering you, the reader, or anything.
His age 22 year is quite similar offensively to Luis Guillorme's age 22 year, but Luis was in his 5th pro season, Young just his 2nd pro season (and first full season). Their fielding error totals at age 22 at 2B and SS were very comparable. And boy, everyone raves about Luis' glove.
Dr. Evil calls Young and Guillorme "friggin' clones." Throw me a bone, will ya?
Add Young to your prospect list - he belongs there.
Gotta go.
Good call on Jett. I'm not sure if Mauricio will work out in the outfield.
ReplyDeleteMy gut says Parada will become the next Mike Piazza.
ReplyDeleteAs for Alvy. I also guess he will not pan out defensively and will either become one of the Mets DHs or be traded.for SP2-3 starter.
Funny, DiComo already slid Jett just past Mauricio. Seems Jett is short but highly regarded. Hopefully, he jets thru the minors.
ReplyDeleteWyatt Young¿¿??
ReplyDeleteBoy, you do stick like flies on... err... well, ya know...
Keyshawn Askew fanned 8 in 3.2 innings last nite. He fanned 9 in 4+ after following Jake in one of Jake’s rehab outings. He is a lefty. He could well be a lefty arm out of the Mets’ pen.
ReplyDeleteI have a question about his future as either a starter or reliever on a Q and A being worked on with Lucie manager, by Ernist Dove
DeleteTwo Brooklyn IFs - William Lugo and Jose Peroza could have Mets futures. Lugo is 20, 12 HRs, 51 RBIs, .259, and has hit very well after a lousy April.
ReplyDeleteJose Peroza was puzzlingly poor thru June, but well over .300 and OBP over .400 in Jul and Aug. Last35 games, 38 hits, 17 for extra bases, 18 walks. He’s 6 months younger than Brett Baty. AND amazingly, just 3 errors in 93 games at2nd and 3rd and several games at SS. A solid bat and stellar D, can’t argue with that.
There are so many Lugo's and Peroza's in this game.
ReplyDeleteI try not to latch on early with these mid-range players.
Been burned too often in the past
I hear you, Mack. So little room on rosters for hitters, too. I’d love to see 27 man rosters, with pitcher limits to max 13, and 30 man rosters in Sept. I do like that both Lugo and Peroza are as young as they are and hitting. But Baty will be at 3rd, Lindor at SS, Pete at first, and I am guessing by mid 2024, Jett and Jeff will be at 2nd. Lots of other guys vying to get in.
ReplyDeleteThey need to work something out to extend McNeil and Pete this off season. McNeil’s constant hitting and hustle are invaluable, and he has fielded like Peroza this year, as in great.
Williams in CF and Mauricio at 2B… McNeil is gone, Nimmo is gone, Ohtani in RF, and Soto in LF. Let me think a out the pitching a bit.
ReplyDeleteGus, if not too expensive, I extend McNeil. He is a fire starter. Not a free agent until 2025, when he will just be turning 33. He might well take a good, cheap extension, rather than risk being in the start of decline and risking not getting much. Jett in CF? That could work.
ReplyDeleteI’d certainly switch Nimmo (who I like a lot) out if we can get Ohtani. Soto? Why not? It’s only $$. Look at what the Lakersare giving old man Lebrun.
Next 3 games are Fried then Nola and Wheeler hang in there boys and great win y/day. Gotta love the kids reaction post game as player interviews are usually as interesting/exciting as watching paint dry. As far as us going forward this off season it will be very interesting and scary as SC will have to get out his checkbook to try and keep up with the Bravos as they have set the standard for player development and contract negotiations. WE HAVE to sign Jake and Edwin to even think of keeping pace and although I love Nimmo I'm sure he's the best signing option.....Jett can u speed up the development process please.
ReplyDeleteHeis not in my 2025 mix, but a shout out to Matt Rudick, who was hitting just .198 8 games ago but has 14 hits and 2 walks in his last 7 games. Momentum is a great thing. Keep it up.
ReplyDeleteThe 2019 roster had deGrom, Diaz, and Lugo on the pitching staff - all the others are gone. That same roster had Alonso, McNeil, Guillorme, Nido, Nimmo - all other position players are gone. This year's team has many more players you would like to retain, but the nature of the baseball business these days is that players constantly move. Free agency, trades, and injuries are all factors. My guess is that the 2025 roster will be much different. I agree that there are some core pieces you want to retain like fan favorite Alonso and guys that get locked up in long term deals like Lindor (and hopefully Jake). What feels good right now is that we actually have a prospect pipeline that everyone above can dream about. I only hope that they can have a "Baty moment" with the Mets if and when they get called up.
ReplyDeleteWhat a difference a month makes. I remember when everybody was down on the Williams pick and the draft. Now he’s going to be a starter.
ReplyDeletePaul when I looked at DiComo's just-updated Top 30, the first 10 guys in total seem better to me than any top 10 Mets prospect list ever. I LIKE our list. A lot.
ReplyDeleteMy only real disagreement with him was not having Montes de Oca in his top 30, who with some further control tightening seems like he could be at least another Trevor May, but his still having Lee and Plummer in his list (albeit with major slippage from the high single digits down to the mid 20s). I am not convinced either of those 2 will ever be big leaguers, based on their 2022 seasons. They are not in my top 30.
Gary, very true. Man, did we dodge a bullet. Yankees faced total free fall but came back. Atlanta nearly tied it up on that final out - if they rallied to win, the Mets' chances of a Division title would have been really damaged.
ReplyDeleteBaty was great, but Marte has been a sensational addition. He has not gotten enough praise from this site in 2022, in my opinion. If we had stayed with Conforto and assuming Conforto was healthy, the Mets would not be in first place right now. This guy is just a PLAYER. Seemingly unflappable.
Why do you like Bryce Montes de Oca?
ReplyDeleteHe's 26 years old and never once has he demonstrated an ability to throw strikes.
He seems like exactly the type of guy that Buck has been complaining about. A hard-thrower who has no idea where the ball is going. Very dangerous. He's walking like 6 per 9 innings.
Is this just a radar gun thing? Obviously 100 mph is an eye-popping number.
Or do you think he'll suddenly learn how to throw strikes?
Jimmy
Jimmy, I like Bryce because he fanned 2 in a scoreless inning yesterday. I also like Bryce because the last two months in Syracuse, in 17 IP, just 4 ER, 9 hits, 33 Ks.
ReplyDeleteI really do like 33 Ks in 17 innings, Jimmy, I am surprised you don't.
He missed 2-3 years with arm issues and all of 2020 so his being 26 to me is irrelevant. He's healthy and firing bullets now, and trying to refine his control, which has been better this year.
I see 33 Ks in 17 IP against AAA and say to myself, Top 30 without a shadow of a doubt. Who besides Edwin does that? But he's not Top 30?
On walks, he has 9 in those 17 IP, but in two 1 inning outings, he walked 4 - in the other 12 outings, spanning 15 innings, just 5 walks, vs. massive strikeouts, so to me, I see real progress on control.
In 2 of the games he allowed a single run, he allowed two total runs, but he went 3.2 innings and 10 of his 11 outs were by strikeout.
He's only had one bad game (2 runs in an inning) since the end of June. Lots of Mets relievers looked crappy lately.
My prediction? Trevor May replaced by the Oak in 2023. And still an outside possibility we see the Mighty Oak this year.
DeMayo hae Eric Orze (age 25) at # 19. He may deserve# 19, but Bryce has pitched better than Orze this year, and of late.
Of course, the 100 MPH fastball is exciting. The hard slider, too.
ReplyDeleteBut how many guys succeed in the MLB with 6 walks per 9 innings?
I don't doubt that he can be lights out . . . sometimes. But for a reliever to have value, consistency is key.
An interesting arm, no doubt. But I'm not buying any stock until something significant changes. Surprising that they haven't tried to simplify his windup.
Jimmy
Phenomenal article
ReplyDelete