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9/8/22

Paul Articulates - Can't catch a break


Early in the season, when everything was going right for the Mets, one of the few things fans could find to complain about was the lack of offensive production from the catcher position.  Both James McCann and Tomas Nido were really struggling with a bat in their hands, and we all projected that sooner or later one would break out.  

Well, it is later now and there has been nothing resembling a breakout.  Three of the Mets’ catchers, including part-time replacements Patrick Mazeika and Michael Perez are batting below the Mendoza line.  Nido is the standout in the group at .221.  

OK, I have argued, the Mets have plenty of hitters in their lineup this year.  They can get by with solid defense from their catchers.  All were touted as being good on the defensive side, including the starter who is nicknamed “McCannon”.  But a statistical review of the defensive performance behind the plate tells a different story of some pretty mediocre play.  

It felt like they were doing well because teams were not taking advantage by running on the Mets this year, but I think that has more to do with Jeremy Hefner teaching the pitchers to hold the runners better.  Here is what I found:

James McCann is ranked 61st amongst MLB catchers in Baseball Savant’s stat “Pop Time” which measures the time from when a pitch hits the catcher’s glove until it is caught at second base.  Both Nido (37th) and Perez (50th) are ranked higher.  There are only 30 teams in major league baseball, which means that there are multiple catchers on other teams capable of getting the throw to second faster than anyone on the Mets.  

There are many different statistics to measure fielding effectiveness but to me, “Pop Time” is the most comprehensive because it encompasses the time to catch a ball, pull it out of the glove, and gun it across the diamond.  It is the only measurement in stolen base metrics that can eliminate factors like how effective a pitcher holds a runner or how fast the baserunner is. 

If you like those other metrics, McCann fires the ball across the diamond at an average 80.7mph velocity which is good for 45th in MLB.  His teammates Perez (83.5mph – 22nd) and Nido (76.8mph – 73rd) are not making room for trophies on their mantle either.  Perez actually has a good caught stealing rate at 60% on only 12 attempts, while Mazeika (33%), McCann (26%), and Nido (20%) have had less success.

I know there are people out there reading this saying, “We never should have gotten rid of d’Arnaud” but in Atlanta he has only improved his batting.  Travis is not any more effective on the defensive side of the ball with a 82.4mph throw (29th), a 22% caught stealing rate, and a 52nd rated Pop Time.  There are a couple of “could have been Mets” that are among statistical leaders including JT Realmuto who ranks #1 in Pop Time and #3 in arm.  Willson Contreras of the Cubs has the 9th best arm and the 13th ranked Pop Time.

There are several intangibles that catchers bring to the team, including how they handle a pitching staff, how well they frame a pitch, and how good they call a game.  We can only rely upon quantitative comparisons across all teams and all pitching staffs to make the case for “best catcher”.  The table below shows some of the offensive and defensive metrics of the Mets’ catchers and some of their division rivals.  It does not tell a good tale, but this is what we have for the rest of the year.







4 comments:

  1. So...

    There is a suck factor here.

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  2. They can frame pitchers. I frame them as lousy

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  3. Hopefully we "catch" a break with Alvy and Parada we need one.

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  4. I can't explain how a high performing athlete goes from successful to unsuccessful so quickly other than to emphasize the importance of the mental game. McCann has all the tools to be a great catcher for the Mets, but he must have been so consumed with making an impression that he "pressed" which caused him to fail, which destroyed his confidence. He has never gotten that back despite a few hard hit balls in the Pittsburgh series. I believe Lindor suffered from the same thing, but he got through it by focusing on other aspects, like playing good defense, hustling on the bases, and leading the "team" approach.
    If the Mets and McCann part ways after this season or the next, it is entirely possible that he thrives like d'Arnauld did. After all, he has the skills. I just hope he finds it before that.

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