Tom Brennan - Citifield by the Numbers

BALANCE THE SCALES FOR OUR METS' HITTERS' GOOD

METS SWEEP PITTSBURGH…YAY!  

ATLANTA SWEEPS PHILLY…BOO!

BANGED-UP METS SPLIT LAST 2 GAMES VS. BREWERS

4 HITS IN 2 GAMES

Francisco Alvarez 12 FOR LAST 27, 3 HR'S

NOT IT'S "A'S UP"

MOVING ON...

Yep, another repetitious article on Citifield's unfair dimensions.

I have long been a proponent of shortened fences at Citifield, because the distance from plate to fence is long - too long.

My gripe/solution is comprised of three things, and possibly a fourth:

1) about 10-15 feet shorter down each line, pretty quickly merging back into existing walls as they move away from the foul poles.  The benefit being that long shots into the corner, some will be doubles, and others, like Pete's titanic blast against the Cubs that just curved foul, it would instead be a fair ball.  Add some HRs.

2) Center Field - move it from 408 to 401 and instead of a straight line across as it is now, have it curve like it did in Shea in CF.   That will add homers and doubles.

3) Get rid of the out-dip in the RF bullpen and have the fence go from CF to RF with a straight-line fence - result more doubles and HRs.

4) Consider moving all of the other fencing by 3-5 feet.  Result being more doubles and HRs.

All of that would not make it a hitters' park.  It would make it a neutral park.  Maybe 15 more HRs, 15 more doubles, and happier Mets' hitters.

I have given specific examples, like McNeil chasing a batting title but hitting 70 points lower at home than on the road, and Pete Alonso hitting 27 points lower at Citifield with a lot fewer HRs over the course of his career, but Marte is hitting better at Citi than on the road this year, so am I making too much of it?  No, I don't believe so.

I looked the other day at the Mets' ranking in scoring in 2022 - at the time, they were 2nd in all baseball on the road, but 14th on the road.

Other years have similar disparities.  One recent year, off the top of my head, the Mets were 8th in road scoring, 30th in home scoring.

But let's get an objective source beyond that.  

ESPN's Park Chart - click and see for yourself:

ESPN Park Hitter Ranking

It showed that Citifield in:

2022 - ranks 28th out of 30 teams as a hitter's park. Very unfriendly.

2021 - 32nd out of 34 parks.

2020 - 17th.  That was the "Year of Dom Smith", with him setting the team's slug % record, but it also was just a 60 game season, so it needs a very large asterisk, since only 40% of a normal season was played.

2019 - 26th.  And remember, 2019 was the explosive year of Pete and Jeff.

2018 - dead. last.

2017 - 25th.

2016 - 16th - made the playoffs, hitting well.  An aberrational year.

2015 - 27th.

So, it is obvious as can be that Citifield, despite two fence move-ins, remains a very hitter-unfriendly park.

My theory for moving fences in again as being beneficial.

1) really good hitting free agents will want overwhelming $$ to come to a park that is above average in difficulty to hit in.  

2) as hitters struggle at home, when those 405 flies to dead center are caught, when the ball isn't carrying in the spring (and not great at other times of the season, either) and long drives nestle into gloves, the hitters tend to press and it adds to their not doing as well.  

3) Other teams' hitters have to play here, too?  Yes, but only for several games a year, not enough to get into their heads. (The current dimensions can of course work out in a single game, like the Friday game against the Bucs where McNeil robbed one HR and caught the final out near the wall, too - I pay attention to that, but believe over the course of the season, shortened fences would be a net benefit - for instance, in the Jake vs Cubs recent game, balls hit by Pete and Canha were likely HRs and may well have resulted in a win and not a loss). 

4) And won't that affect the pitchers?  I believe the quality Mets staff will tweak their pitches in consideration of a neutral, and not pitcher-friendly, park.

Going back to McNeil.  If he played his entire career in Colorado, he might well be the winner of 8 batting titles, and be a Hall of Fame consideration.  Not as a Met, though.  If the dimensions stay as is, he will be lucky to win one title. 

Lastly, since 2015, a quick look at 4 pertinent teams (Yanks, Braves, Phils, and Mets) showed that the teams in the two bandbox parks have the biggest home field advantage:

Phillies: 83 more wins than losses

Yankees: 67 more wins than losses

Mets: 40 more wins than losses

Braves: much to my surprise, just 22 more wins than losses

But that gap between the Mets and Phillies is very telling, I think.  An average of about 6 wins more at home than on the road per full year.

And Jake deGrom?  Just 21-17 in back-to-back Cy Young seasons in 64 starts.  Anyone who watched his infrequent wins despite world class pitching knows it was due to lack of run support.  

On the road those 2 seasons, 12-6, ERA of about 2.00.  Not great at all, but decent.  At home those 2 seasons, just a horrifically undeserved 9-11, despite an ERA of about 2.00.

I REST MY CASE.

If I can go all Reagan-esque:

"Mr. Cohen, tear down those walls." 

And put up hitter-friendlier ones.

And win more.  And...

Aaron Judge would like short fences.

At his new home park.