Reese Kaplan -- What Did the Mets Learn in Atlanta?

So the big Atlanta series has come and gone with the worst possible outcome happening.  Going in I was at least expecting a 1-2 series which would have made it a dead heat for the final three game series' both the Mets and Braves would face separately.  While mathematically it's still possible for the Mets to win the division, it would require the Braves to lose all three to the Marlins while the Mets won all three from the Nationals.  I wouldn't bank on that happening.

So there's been a lot of anguish and hand wringing over what went wrong for the Mets to have been on top for so long and all of the sudden find themselves looking up at first place.  As a quick reminder, it's a 162 game season, not the best of 157.  The Braves are defending multi-year champions over their current reign.  The Mets are losers save for Mickey Callaway's last year in uniform as a manager.  I won't even go over the 7 dark years that were all about establishing a losing managerial record that hopefully will never be broken.  

There are a couple of obvious things that you can highlight as causation for the late September and early October tailspin.  Start with Starling Marte's hit-by-pitch broken finger.  If your memories are somehow unclear, look up Marte's numbers and you will see he was clearly one of the best free agent signings in team history.  He was delivering 3.7 WAR at a salary of less than 2.0 WAR.  You can't argue with his success in New York and hats off to the front office for grabbing the best available outfielder in free agency.  

The second issue was the big swing and a miss of the front office at the trading deadline.  Yes, Daniel Vogelbach had a home run and two RBIs in the third game, but for the most part he has been borderline, Ruf has been invisible (while on the active roster) save for his one pitching appearance, Naquin has not done much and the rookies promoted did even less.  

A good management team recognizes the weaknesses of the club and takes action to address them.  In Vogelbach and Ruf they had thought to build an aggregate DH on the cheap who could provide power and RBIs while exclusively hitting against their opposite armed opponent on the mound.  That didn't exactly work out now, did it?

The third issue was the one no one really saw coming.  Yes, Jacob deGrom had recently experienced some poor (by his standards) starts that resulted in losses.  Still, everyone was willing to write it off as a slump or exhaustion or whatever other excuse they could formulate in their minds.  If I told you he would fan 11 Braves you would sign up for that right now.  Unfortunately he lost yet again.

Accompanying that poor performance was an even rarer one by Max Scherzer.  While he wasn't exactly the equivalent of a batting practice quality pitcher like many others we've seen over our years of Mets baseball, he too was saddled with an unexpected loss.  It was just one hiccup in a stellar year, so the naysayers are not nearly as vocal about this outcome.

Then there was the performance of Chris Bassitt when the Mets needed him the most.  He has been above and beyond what was hoped when they signed him for this season, going into the big series with a 3.27 ERA.  Unfortunately he too failed to deliver the kind of quality start needed to secure a victory.  There's no reason why this blip on his record should dissuade the Mets from trying to lock him up during the offseason, but it was the third of the top three starters all failing to get a win.  

Still, none of these games was a high scoring blowout.  The starting pitching was most definitely a contributor to the Braves’ sweep, but it was the balsa wood bats that really were the Achilles heel of the team. First came the front office's curious decision to promote 20 year old rookie Francisco Alvarez in the most critical three games of the year. 

Then came Buck Showalter's decision to remove his top RBI bat from the middle of the order and batting him number two.  (Note that when he was returned to cleanup in the third game he produced with his bat once again).  Then there was the plethora of others who did very little to help the club score runs.  It was that issue that stuck out far more than the pitching.  

So what does this lesson mean for the Mets going forward?  I'm not going to predict postseason outcomes, but instead consider the 2023 season.  The club needs to remove what isn't working and replace those players with ones who get it done.  That means across the board -- pitching, fielding, hitting, running and throwing.  

At this juncture obviously Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil are safe.  However, you'd have to question if Eduardo Escobar, free-agent-to-be Brando Nimmo, Mark Canha and the catchers are the answers to the offensive woes?  

On the pitching side it's even worse with Jacob deGrom allegedly seeking to exercise his opt-out clause, Bassitt needing to be re-signed, Taijuan Walker likely leaving via free agency, the mixed bag of Carlos Carrasco under contract for another year and definitely recent poor results from David Peterson and Tylor Megill.  In the pen Adam Ottavino, Seth Lugo and Trevor Williams are all approaching free agency.  That leaves a rather empty pen.  

What the Mets need to realize is that building a winning team is about achieving a balance between solid (not hopeful) veterans and supplementing with homegrown talent who can provide long term results for relatively little money.  It's not about force feeding youngsters into the lineup and declaring them failures on less than a month of opportunity.  

Going into this offseason, Steve Cohen, Billy Eppler and whomever replaces Sandy Alderson must huddle to figure out who to retain, who to lose and most importantly, who to entice to join the Mets via trades and free agency.  

This season may not have finished as fans had hoped, but it gave the millions of supporters hope, something they have not felt since Yoenis Cespedes was brought on board.  It's important the club does not dismantle what has been built just as it's equally important not to maintain the status quo.  It's going to be a tough winter.