Reese Kaplan -- The Qualifying Offer Quandary Hits Home

The Qualifying Offer (QO) is an ongoing process for Major League Baseball team owners to provide to their best potentially outgoing free agents a contract salary proposal equal to the average of the top 125 player salaries.  For the upcoming 2023 season that amount equals $19.65 million.  

For the New York Mets, that figure hits very close to home with the team having offered three of its players that amount to dissuade them from leaving the club.  The front office decided to extend the QO to pitchers Chris Bassitt and Jacob deGrom, as well as center fielder Brandon Nimmo.  The expectation here is that the players in question will reject the offer which assures the Mets of a draft pick in compensation should the players wind up leaving the ballclub and signing elsewhere.

For the players in question, the QO is simply a starting point to negotiation.  A player like Brandon Nimmo, for example, may find that the dollar amount is agreeable but the terms of the deal are not.  At age 29 right now he's entering what should be the prime years of his playing career and has just finished his best-ever season.  Consequently it's not about one year's riches, but five years or so of ample pay which would likely cause his agent Scott Boras to reject the single year of high compensation.

Now in the case of Chris Bassitt, he's striking while the iron is hot but for an older pitcher who may be seeking his last-ever explosive climb on the salary roller coaster.  He's going to turn 34 as his new contract begins.  Obviously pitchers at even older ages get multiyear deals and Bassitt likely assumes MLB owners would willingly fork over a $21 million or so annual salary for 3-4 years if given the opportunity to bid.

Jacob deGrom is a special case on multiple fronts.  He saw what the Mets paid to bring in an older Max Scherzer last year and he would easily put his body of work right up alongside Scherzer to think he's worthy of earning just as much (if not more).  The problem is his health more than his age or his retched (by his standards) finish to the 2022 season.  Going into 2023 when he'll be turning 35 due to his late start to his pitching career, he's likely looking for a $43.5 million salary as a starting point over multiple years.

The point today is not to ascertain at what level annually these players should be paid and for how long, but instead to take a brief gander at the other non-Mets on this list to see what it does to this team's payroll and roster options when you see who else has made this QO club.  Eleven other players have hit the QO compensation lottery.  Some were highly expected like Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Carlos Rodon, Dansby Swanson, Xander Boagerts, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo and Nathan Eovaldi.  A few others were a bit of a surprise, like Tyler Anderson, Joc Pederson and Martin Perez.  

For the Mets, you'd have to wonder about their roster construction if rumors about avoiding draft pick compensation would in effect take Turner, Rodon and Anderson (among others) off the table?  Of course, if the club loses out on one, two or all three of their free agent players, would it simply be a wash to lose out on draft pick choices if they get them back again as Bassitt, deGrom and Nimmo find new homes?  

Players who accept their QOs are something of a rarity and when they do, it's often because they realize (like Neil Walker once did) that they should grab the money while they can because it's unlikely they will make that kind of pay in a multiyear deal elsewhere.  This season the players on this list have a November 20th deadline to accept or reject the one-year Qualifying Offer.  Clubs will learn soon enough who may or may not be a part of their club and who will be at least helping them increase their number of draft picks should they decide to test the market.  

Right now the Mets are looking down the barrel of potentially nine more players leaving them for free agency with this conspicuous trio plus the already-signed Edwin Diaz.  What happens now is a great unknown.  Here's hoping Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler have plans in place to rework the roster.