Tom Brennan - Preliminary Top 50 Mets Prospect Worksheet

SOME GUPPY PROSPECTS DESERVE TO BE RANKED

I came across another website's (Prospects1500) Top 50 (actually Top 52) produced prior to the 2022 season, and found it pretty solid stuff (good for them) except for 2 notable misses I mention at the end (so make sure you read that far).  

I added in Parada, Tidwell, & Jett, 3 very talented draftees in July 2022, to the list. 

The Brennan Top 50 list is a work in progress, so I thought this might be an interesting way to start it.

I'll formulate a tighter top 50 later, probably in January 2023.

Here is their logic on prospects' Tiered Ranking, which make logical sense to me:

Prospects1500 Tiers: Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor Tier 4: Players who have the potential of making the majors, or have a high likelihood of making the majors but providing minimal impact (e.g. middle reliever, low-ceiling UT guys. Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who have an outside chance of making their team’s 40-man roster

Ages/levels at left were respective ages and highest levels prior to 2022.

Tier 1	Brennan’s Nov. 2022 Take
1. Francisco Alvarez, C, 20, High-A	Agreed. Tier 1, # 1. BOOM!
2. Brett Baty, 3B, 22, AA	Agreed. Tier 1, # 2. BANG!
Tier 2
3. Ronny Mauricio, SS, 20, AA	Agreed. Tier 1, # 3.  114 RBIs in 2022 pre-Thanksgiving.  BASH!
4. Matt Allan, RHP, 20, Low-A.	Non-play since 2019. To me, that slides him to Tier 3, # 11.
5. Mark Vientos, 3B, 22, AAA	Agreed. Tier 2 # 5. BOMB!
Kevin Parada	2022 draft, I’d put him at #4 now.
Jett Williams	2022 draft, I’d put him at #7 now.
Tier 3
6. J.T. Ginn, RHP, 22, High-A	Traded.  Strong in Az Fall League.
7. Alex Ramirez, OF, 19, Low-A	Tier 2, #8.
8. Robert Dominguez, RHP, 20, Rookie (FCL).	Fragile.  Tier 4, much lower rank.  Just 12 pro IP?  Come on, dude.
9. Dominic Hamel, RHP, 22, Rookie (FCL)	Tier 3, edging towards Tier 2, my # 9.
Blade Tidwell	2022 draft. High Octane RHP. Tier 2 # 11
10. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 19, High Sch	Tier 3, # 11.  Unexpectedly wild in 2022.
11. Carlos Cortes, 2B, 24, AA	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a bad 2022.
12. Khalil Lee, OF, 23, MLB	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a bad 2022.
13. Jose Butto, RHP, 23, AA	Tier 3, he’s my # 12. Solid 2022.
14. Jaylen Palmer, IF/OF, 21, High-A	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a K-bad 2022.
15. Junior Santos, RHP, 20, Low-A	Disappointing 2022, I’d put him Tier 4
16. Nick Plummer, OF, 25, AAA	Slipped to a Tier 4/5 after a bad 2022.
17. Joel Diaz, RHP, 17, Rookie (DSL)	Leave him here for now.   He was fair in St Lucie, but made strides.
Tier 4
18. T. Blankenhorn, 2B/OF, 25, MLB	Free agent after so-so 2022.
19. Thomas Szapucki, LHP, 25, MLB	Traded; any doubt he’s a budding superstar??
20. Josh Walker, LHP, 27, AAA	Hurt a lot in 2022;good in Az. #20.
21. JT Schwartz, 1B, 22, Low-A	Hit well, not much power but it was Bklyn.  2023 is his year to shine in AA. I bet he will.  My # 18.
22. Hayden Senger, C, 24, AA	Hit tool not good in 2022.  Tier 4.
23. Carlos Rincon, OF, 24, AA	Hurt most of year; free agent.
24. Eric Orze, RHP, 24, AAA	Some really bad AAA games, but fanned a lot of dudes.  Only his 1st full year.  I think he’ll meet the challenge. In my top 20.
25. Nick Meyer, C, 24, AA	Another low nit year. Grote Light?
26. Joander Suarez, RHP, 21, Low-A	45 IP in 2021-22 after no 2020.  To be a pitcher, you need to pitch.
27. Jake Mangum, OF, 25, AA	Unprotected Rule 5 despite hitting over .300 in 2022. Always ranked lower than K. Lee; s/b reversed.
28. Adam Oller, RHP, 27, AAA	Part of Bassitt deal.  Spotty 2022 for the Oakland franchise.
29. Jordany Ventura, RHP, 21, DNP in 2021 (Rookie ball in 2019)	Did not pitch much at all – time for him to break out.  Or fade away.
30. Michael Otanez, RHP, 24, High-A	Free agent.  Walked > a man per inning. And roughed up in AAA,
31. Simon Juan, OF, 16, International signee	Lousy DSL year but SO young; he will explode in 2023. In my top 30.
32. Shervyen Newton, IF, 22, Low-A	Lousy K-filled year (and career).  Signed by Boston.
33. Mike Vasil, LHP, 21, Rookie (FCL)	Pitched well in 2022, great in Arizona, he is now Tier 3, top 20.
34. Kevin Kendall, IF, 22, Low-A	Looks like a player, definitely Tier 4 (for now) in Brennan Top 30. 2023 is a big year to see if he can size up to mighty Wyatt Young.
Tier 5
35. Chris Scott, RHP, 22, Rookie (FCL)	Bombed in Arizona, but I will leave him in Tier 4 for now.  Was OK in A ball in 2022.
36. Luke Ritter, 2B/OF, 24, High-A	His below average average makes me think Tier 5.  Push him into the 40s.
37. Stanley Consuegra, OF, 21, Rookie (FCL)	Still like him, made progress, in my top 30, but 2023 is year to really show it.
38. Jose Peroza, IF, 21, High-A	He is definitely in my top 30, another Dangerfield prospect. 194 career RBIs.
39. Ryley Gilliam RHP 25AAA	Surged for a bit in past, but fell apart with injuries. Is he done?
40. Daison Acosta, RHP, 23, DNP in 2021 (Low-A in 2019)	Awful 2022 start, fine finish, top 30
41. Justin Lasko, RHP, 24 AA	Yawn. Released.
42. Nic Gaddis, C/IF, 25, AA	Showed some potential but hitting issues – just .202 and 84 Ks in 390 PAs.  #42 is about right.
43. Carlos Dominguez, OF, 21, Rookie (FCL)	Strikeout HR machine at the plate. 173 K in 111 gms for the Lucites.
44. Raul Beracierta, 1B/OF, 22, AA	Hit well in St Lucie, but free agent.
45. Willy Mays Fañas, OF, 17, International signee	Some say he’ll be good. I’m a wait-and-see guy. .257, no HRs in DSL. Fast kid. Turns 18 in Jan ‘23
46. Mitch Ragan, RHP, 24, AA	Released.
47. Wilmer Reyes, IF, 23, High-A	Fragile and a free agent.
48. Warren Saunders, IF, 22, Low-A	Low-pop .206 in 2022. Not top 50.
49. Daniel Juarez, LHP, 20, Low-A	Pitched very well in 2022 – 4-1, 1.66 ERA with 59 Ks in 43 IP in A ball. AND NO HRs allowed in 109 career innings!  Top 30, for sure.
50. Cole Gordon, LHP, 26, AA	Meh.  2 IP 2022. Leave him at 50.
51. Omar De Los Santos, OF 22 Low A	Omar has to be a Tier 4 now.  Fix the K problem in a big way, though, and he is Tier 2.  But his Ks have me rank him in low 30s.
52. Franklin Parra, LHP 22 AA	Released.
TWO GUYS WHO ARE Not on anyone’s Top 50 lists but mine pre-2022, which greatly puzzles me:
BRYCE MONTES DE OCA	Seriously, guy throws as high as 102 and he is not in a top 52 list?  I currently have him at # 13.       85 career IP, 120 Ks, 1 HR, 17 of 20 saves. Will be a  Met in 2023.
WYATT YOUNG	Hit .370 as a rookie, but not in top 52?  Now, in 2 years (one short, one full), he is .290/.380/.400 in 640 PAs, mostly in AA and AAA, 90 runs scored, above average D?  I have him at around # 14.  Could make the Mets in 2023 if an IF gets injured.  A  Guillorme friggin’ clone, Sport.   Oh, and Fangraphs has Young making his MLB debut in 2023, with 28 plate appearances and .242, so that supports him being ranked in the teens.  His career ceiling?  I won't venture a guess, but at one time, Jeff McNeil was thought to have a low ceiling.  He changed that to a vaulted ceiling.

 So - asking all Tier 1 readers…

what dost thou think?