Tom Brennan - W.A.R. in Metsville; Ronny Mo; Fences III; Great G.O.A.T.

 

METS WAR STATS:

As one might expect…or might not expect, since it is a free country and you can decide for yourself…nearly all of the Mets’ wins above replacement (WAR) were accumulated by the Mets’ top 6 hitters and top 6 pitchers. More WAR, more wins.

That Dynamic Dozen collectively were outstanding. How much?

27.9 WAR for the top 6 hitters, just 3.4 WAR for all other hitters.  And of that 3.4 WAR, 3.6 WAR of it was generated by Escobar and Guillorme.  Basic math tells you the rest of the hitters were collectively in negative WAR territory.

On the outstanding side of the ledger, McNeil (5.9) and Lindor (6.8) comprised 12.7 WAR between them. Wow.

Not far behind them were Nimmo (5.4) and Alonso and his 131 RBIs coming in at "just" 4.0, pretty far behind Lindor, McNeil and Nimmo.

Then there were 17.2 WAR for the top 6 pitchers, just 3.1 for all other pitchers.  Max and Diaz as one would expect (or not, it's a free country) were the two top guns here.  Jake was 6th, at 2.2, which warrants a budget-blowing $200+ million contract, of course.

The above are not my stats - see the link below to the Fangraphs data. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/mets 

Full disclaimer: 

I did NOT compare these Mets stats to those of other teams. Draw any conclusion about the data you wish to.  Or conclude that you don't want to conclude at all, but if you do that, do your non-concluding in a conclusive manner - that's all I conclusively ask.  

My conclusion?

So, so many fringe guys collectively producing too little, of any, WAR - leaving all the heavy lifting to the top 12-14 Mets.  

An area for Eppler to focus on, IMO. The fringe dudes' non-production has been a season-in, season-out problem of significance for the NY Mets.  When, for instance, the Mets' worst 14 hitters compile 804 at bats, and hit just .184, that's a problem.  

When you throw in Messrs. Nido and JD Davis and you then end up with 16 hitters with 1,269 at bats hitting a collective .204, that's an expansive problem.  Fix it, once and for all, please.

MAURICIO HAVING A BALL IN THE FALL

Ronny Mo is now playing Dominican "winter ball".  Good for him.   Career growth is helped by many ABs, as Pete Alonso knew when he played 159 minors and AFL games in 2018.  His 2018 opened the door to his jaw-dropping 2019.

How is Ronny Mo doing?  Well, through the middle of last week, his combined regular season and fall ball stats = 131 games, 30 doubles, 28 HRs, and 100 RBIs.  Compare that to 4 HRs in 504 plate appearances in 2019, when he was still a gangly kid.  

Dang, those doubles, HRs, and ribbies impressive #'s for a 21 year old.  Add in 25 of 36 in steals in 2022.  Glad he is our prospect - or trade chip.

FENCES IN, PART 3:

Mets announced that the fences would be slightly moved in for promotional reasons, essentially.  It may not, they hint, be much of a change.   But closer is closer, and closer makes this writer happy.

I did consider how the Citi fences in 2022 may have helped make a villain of James McCann.  I admittedly missed a lot of his ABs in 2022 (good time for a bio break when nothing's happening) but those ABs I did see from Jimmy Mac included several very deep flyouts.

His 2022 spray chart in this link (feel free to look at it) seemed to show he hit a lot of deep fly balls.  A deep flyout, however, other than perhaps an occasional sac fly, simply reduces a player's average.  

So, if Sweet Baby James (yes, the highly paid one) were to hit under .200 with 2 HRs at home, but hit a lot of long fly outs, might a shrewd owner of a team with a more tightly dimensioned home park and better ball-off-bat carry think of trading for McCann, with the Mets eating, say, all but $1 million each of his final 2 seasons, in hopes some of those long Citi flyouts might barely be homers at the new park?  Just a thought.  Again, take a look at his spray chart by opening this link, and see what you think.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-mccann/12859/spray-charts?position=C&type=battedball

Then compare to his 2020 chart, where it seems that some balls that were long outs in 2022 were HRs in 2020:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/james-mccann/12859/spray-charts?position=C&type=battedball&pid2=12859&ss1=2020&se1=2020&ss2=2020&se2=2020&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

Maybe I am reading the charts wrong - after all, McCann hit poorly on the road in 2022 also.  2022 was "Bad McCann". 

But...he did hit significantly better on the road in 2021, his first Mets season, than he did at home.

It seems that any player the Mets sign (especially expensive ones), if the dimensions turn out to be virtually unchanged in 2023 vs. 2022, better have their spray charts studied very carefully by the Cohenim, to see how much of the prospective acquiree's success will evaporate in less favorable Citifield hitting conditions (due to depth, poor ball carry).  

Why pay 4 years, $40 million based on a guy's past production if that same past production, were it to have happened in Citifield, would have been significantly diminished by a hitter's malady called COTWT Syndrome (Caught on the Warning Track)?

LASTLY: LET'S CONSIDER G.O.A.T.S

As we wonder if the Mets will re-sign Jake deGOAT, who i peskily keep noting has won just 82 games in 9 years, what about Sandy Koufax in his last 4 career years?  Well, then, we see there are pseudo-goats and real, honest-to-Betsy GOATS!  Koufax?

All time G.O.A.T. stuff.  Real G.O.A.T.  With or without a goatee.

In those 4 years of brilliance, he went 97-27, ERA around 1.85, 31 regular season shutouts, over 1200 Ks. HE AVERAGED BEING 17.5 GAMES ABOVE .500 IN THOSE 4 SEASONS.

And in 1965's World Series, after 336 regular season IP, which it now takes two league leading innings eaters to collectively accumulate, he started THREE of the 7 games in the World Series, fired a total of 24 IP, and allowed just one stinking, measly earned run. 

He started games 2, 5 and 7.  Three of the last 6 games.

And...Games 5 and 7 were complete game shutouts. 

Wow.  Or should I say BAAAHHHH!  GOAT OF ALL GOATS.

P.S.  Saw this painful note in Twitter: 

Sandy Koufax career earnings: $430,500