David Jacks: A Hot Stove conversation with writer Remember1969

 

Putting Pen to Paper!

DJ - I’m David,  Mack’s Mets newest writer,  and I thought I’d introduce myself to the readers, and to you, by doing what any good writer does, debate another writer, Remember 1969, about the Metropolitans.  

 R69 - Hi David, welcome to the team!  A little background on me, I chose my handle because 1969 is in fact the first year I do actually remember as a baseball fan. I remember seeing Ron Taylor (look him up - interesting story) staring back at me from the top of the first 'wax pack' of baseball cards I ever opened and seeing the METS across the bottom of the 1969 Topps card and saying to myself "Mets, that sounds cool, I think I'll be a Mets fan".  My Dad never was into any sports and I was just trying to catch up with some of the other kids in my new neighborhood we moved into.  The rest is history.   I'd love to have Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman back to head the rotation!  

 I love a good Mets debate!

 DJ - Funny enough my parents had zero interest in sports too but I  fell in love. I was 8 years old in 86,’ and while I didn’t know about the debauchery behind the scenes I knew I loved Doc, Straw and  Keith (even if they didn’t love each other). Ok we’ve done the introductions….  

 So enough chit chat, let’s get to it.   The winter meetings have come and gone and the Mets have been silent for almost 48 hours, WHAT ARE THEY DOING? Actually just as I write this the Mets sense my angst and sign Kodai Senga so now it’s been about 12 hours since their last signing, WAKE UP EPPLER! Ok, clearly the Mets have been extremely busy, opening up with the Justin Verlander signing, inking Jose Quintana, trading for Brooks Raley, grabbing David Robertson and bringing back Mr. Smile Brandon Nimmo, now Senga, and a host of other depth moves. The most common argument I’ve heard regarding these moves is this: Did the Mets, with their record breaking payroll, do anything to improve from last year? And yes this argument ignores the fact that his team won 101 games last year, but still, let’s start there, did the Mets do enough Remember1969 (for the record no I don’t remember it)?

 

 

R69 - Your first question is an interesting one.  While the Mets have been busy, it is hard to tell whether the pitcher swaps are actually an improvement.    I’ll break some of the moves down with my thoughts.  

 

First, trading deGrom for Verlander.   This is a wash to me.  As pitchers, they are certainly both top 5 in their craft in all of MLB.   I do like the fact that Verlander is coming off a very healthy (and Cy Young) year while deGrom pitched less than 70 innings.    I also like the shorter Verlander contract.  I personally think the Rangers are going to regret the back end of that deal.  

 

DJ - Very hard to see the home grown DeGrom leave but boy was it something seeing him replaced within 48 hours. These aren’t your Wilpon’s Mets anymore, hell these aren’t any Mets we’ve seen before. The Verlander signing just shows more of the same, they will spend, but they aren’t tied to many players for long, and they’ve protected their prospects. Pretty amazing that we may be witnessing a minor league rebuild while also putting one of the best teams in baseball on the field. 

 

R69 - Now the swap of Bassitt and Walker for Quintana and Senga.   After Quintana’s fine year in 2022, this looks like a really nice deal for the right money that the Mets have made. He is a positive replacement for Walker and adding a lefty to the mix is a good thing.  We really don’t know much about Senga or how his success in Japan will translate to the US, but maybe I’ll use Masahiro Tanaka as a comparison.  If they can get Tanaka production from Senga, it will be a very good move. I think one negative from this is that both Bassitt and Walker pitched deeper into games than we can expect from Quintana and Senga, but overall, I think slight edge to the 2023 version.     

 

DJ - So as we go back and forth Senga is now a Met, so this changes our conversation a tad, but let’s say Senga is the Bassitt replacement and Quintana is Walker’s. Agreed it’s a nice deal, but I worry that he saw a bit of luck in the last few years. He may out pitch his peripherals and the 4 seamer up in the zone may continue to lead to weak contact but most likely there will be regression.  Still, he’s a 4/5 in the rotation with a very reasonable contract based on the absurd market. In years past this would’ve been the Mets big move of the offseason and hailed as “Jake light.”  

 

R69 - As for the new relievers, I like Robertson, but the Raley move is a wait and see. Perhaps they will catch the same lightning here that they caught with Loup in 2021 off that same Rays roster.  I was not happy losing Askew.  There is also ZachGreene in the mix as the Rule 5 selection from the Yankees organization. But overall, again it feels like there is not much forward progress in the pen as these are really only replacements for the loss of Ottavino, Williams, and Lugo, arguably not even an improved substitution.   I would be happy to see Andrew Chafin added in as a late inning option.   

 

DJ - The Mets sure have added a ton of depth to pen, most of it will start in AAA but they will have options. Based on the fickle nature of relievers I like the many chances they’ve taken (Hunter/ Reid Foley/ Greene who you mentioned/ Yacabonis/ Reyes/ Woods/ Hernandez/ Brigham and Ridlings.) If just one of those guys has an outlier year it’ll be worth it. As you mention Robertson to Diaz is a heckuva 8/9 and Raley can handle lefties, but I do wonder if they may still check in on a consistent arm like Chafin who’s been linked to the Mets for what seems like the last decade.  Wouldn’t mind seeing Otto back as well, but also wouldn’t be surprised if he regressed too. 

 

R69 - Lastly, Brandon Nimmo.   Another ‘lateral’ move – keeping the same player.  He is a known commodity and we can only hope he has another 8 years of his 2022 level play.  I would certainly not give away 40 WAR over the next decade, but realistically, he’ll be a well paid fairly low power corner outfielder in the last 5 or 6 years of the contract.  Perhaps $18M will be the cost of that player by then, but for now I am glad to have him back playing centerfield.   It would have been difficult to replace him in 2023.

 

DJ - Look the guy runs out walks, how can you not love him? But yes, the options were, don’t pay and get worse, or send top 5 prospect to Pittsburgh for Reynolds which the Mets have shown they just don’t want to do. Also Nimmo had the second best cf fwar of all centerfielders in baseball in 22, not too shabby.  

R69 - So, to answer your question specifically, I don’t see where they will be an improved team in 2023 over 2022 if they stop now.  Especially when considering the moves the Phillies have made to strengthen their lineup with Turner and lengthen their rotation with Walker.    

DJ - Yeah, and improving a 101 win team sure isn’t easy but I think the new addition of Senga may have just tipped them over the edge? 

So let’s get a little micro now. The offense basically IS the same, minus the possible additions of the kids (Alvarez/ Baty and Vientos) none of whom are guaranteed roster spots. Soooo, is there anyone out there, whether through trade or free agency you think could make a difference?

R69 - The issue I have now is the money they have tied up on three specific players – Canha, Escobar, and McCann. Those players are all being paid starter dollars and adding anyone through free agency that would really improve this team would need to be a platoon player at minimum, forcing one (or more) of these guys to the bench unless a trade could be made.  

 DJ - Would love to move Mcann and have Nido mentor Alvarez. While James hasn’t been great and the Mets would be selling low, if you could get a team to take on any salary I’d move him.   

 R69 - Call me foolishly loyal, but in a separate Mets chat recently, I advocated for a one year ‘show-me’ type contract to Michael Conforto.  The only way that would work is to have a Conforto/Canha platoon with Conforto getting most of the ABs as the left-handed hitter.  I will probably try to write some more words on a different thread with my thoughts.     

 DJ - I am not a Conforto truther (not sure what that means) but the idea of having him for one year at a cheaper rate/ prove it deal does sound appealing. Between platooning with Canha, spelling Nimmo and Marte, and the DH he could see upwards of 450/500 at bats which would be enough to show the league he’s still capable. An 823 ops is nothing to sneeze at despite his walk year struggles. 

 R69 - One other player that I have not seen any connection to, but would fit into the current offensive approach of the Mets is Michael Brantley, who will be 36 early in 2023, but is a lifetime .298 hitter with a .356 OBP.   If he would accept a 4^th outfielder role, he certainly would not hurt the team much if one of the starters went down for a week or two.  

 DJ - Like I mentioned with Conforto I think the Ab’s would be there, but not sure how his arm is going to hold up, which would affect his chances at the plate if he has no position.   

 R69 - Lastly, one name that has quieted down lately that I heard some early chatter on is JD Martinez.   I was never a fan of that move as I typically do not go for one dimensional offensive players on the downside of their careers, but he might be a scarier hitter from the right side than Ruf.   I’m still hoping one of the young guys takes that role in Spring Training.

 I’m not into the thought of another huge contract for a Correa or Swanson, although if Mr. Cohen was willing to spend the dollars, either of them would fit into any lineup and make it better.   If either was signed, they would have to agree to move to either second or third.    

 DJ - The idea of locking into a longer contract just doesn’t seem to be the Mets plan (Nimmo/ Lindor the outliers and hopefully McNeil and Alonso to follow). Then again if you want to really really REALLY go for it why not add Correa? It seems a bit crazy because they’ve already gone hog wild but they are over the threshold so does it matter? They’re still missing some pop in that lineup that maybe Alvarez and Baty (to a lesser extent Vientos) offer but hard to rely on such young kids (though I’d like to see them get a chance). 

 R69 - I haven’t recently scanned the F/A lists, but I think other than the two shortstops, the next best bat might be Andrew Benintendi.   With Nimmo, he does not really fit. The need would be a power hitting DH and I don’t see any of them left.  

 DJ - I like what Benintendi does, but it’s very Nimmo like. Would prefer some more pop. 

 Great questions and dialogue David!  That is probably enough for round 1.  Now let me plant a seed for a follow-on conversation and ask you one question before we wrap this up. Which Mets players do you think are capable of better seasons in 2023 and which ones might be in for some regression?     We’ll chew on that for a bit and discuss next week.

 DJ – That sounds great.  I have another one for you as well for next time:  You may have actually asked me this over text and now I’m stealing your question. Now that we have Senga’d (let’s get more into that next week), do you consider trading Carrasco who comes with a very friendly 14 million dollar deal. Based on the current market that’s a bargain. If you consider a trade what do you look for in return?

R69 – I don’t think that was originally my question, although I did see that idea floated somewhere.  Good question.  Let me think about that for a few days

Thanks again  … It's time to invite Mack's readers to join the conversation and add comments!