Pages

12/2/22

Reese Kaplan -- More Math Concepts for Baseball Success


On Wednesday we took a look at some of the math that goes into the business decisions being made in baseball.  No, it's not the total number of home runs or strikeouts or saves or stolen bases.  

It is the analytical undercover work that helps identify performance execution, performance potential and performance deficiencies that will inevitably lead to roster expansion and contraction decisions.  Today let's instead look at some of the more understandable and familiar baseball statistics to determine if they indeed make the most sense as the way of building a team to contend for the postseason.  

As a great example, let's go back to examine the 2019 Rookie of the Year performance by Pete Alonso.  Save for one unnamed (and likely Atlanta-based voter), Pete Alonso received 29 of 30 first place nods for his incredible first season in the major leagues.  He finished with a respectable .260 average, but that's not what got him the award.  He hit a new record 53 home runs, drove in 120, maintained a .358 OBP that was accompanied by a truly incredible .583 slugging percentage.  He was, is and continues to be a remarkable slugger and run producer.

Now to hear many baseball fans tell the tale, that's what you need to become a contender and get to the World Series.  Really?  If you check your standings for 2019 while the Mets did indeed have a winning record (something of a rarity for them for the past several years), they finished the year 86-76 in third place, 11 games behind those pesky Atlanta Braves.

Then there are the pitching-oriented fans who grew up on the likes of Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and other impressive arms who will contend that the secret to success is having a dominant hurler on the mound.  In fact, in that same year of 2019 Jacob deGrom won his second straight Cy Young Award after going 11-8 with a 2.43 ERA with a league leading 255 strikeouts in just over 204 IP.  

Perhaps even more eye popping was his streak of five straight seasons with a WHIP rating under 1.00 meaning he was allowing less than one baserunner per inning pitched.  

So having that kind of starting pitching is the key to October baseball, right?  Well, as stated in the brief glimpse at Pete Alonso, the Mets finished out of contention.  Bear in mind that deGrom was not a one-man show.  He was accompanied by Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz.  So pitching alone is obviously not the answer either.  

I'm not going to delve stat-by-stat into defense, relief pitching, batting average nor stolen bases.  The fact is that it takes a combination of effort from the whole team to advance in the standings.  That concession brings us to where we are now in planning for the future.  

Think back for awhile about how valuable role players and starters who were not All Stars became not just for the Mets but for any other team seeking World Series glory.  


If that line of thinking doesn't resonate with you, then consider how you would go about playing the game of fantasy baseball.  Many folks go into that hobby bidding most of their budget for two or three amazing players only to discover that they were stuck filling in the rest of the roster with the leftovers no one else wanted.  

I took a different approach, always looking for the 20 HR/80 RBI type of hitter knowing they wouldn't cost a fortune and also realizing that an injury wouldn't be nearly as devastating as losing one of those top 2 or 3 players would be.

So in planning for the 2023 season and beyond, should the Mets go for only the top tier free agents and trade candidates to get one or two difference makers?  While there is some validity to having a year-after-year All Star on your team, the fact is that the Mets were facing 50% of their roster eligible to leave via free agency.  

Consequently finding the best starting pitcher or two, the best hitter or the best middle reliever isn't by itself going to help the team do better than they finished in 2022.  


Steve Cohen and Billy Eppler have been vocal about a five year plan and it's highly unlikely that the details include getting the best of the best regardless of cost year after year.  

It is about finding a way to complement the difference makers with a stellar supporting cast who make it easier for them to perform at an optimal level.  

No one knows exactly what will come out of the San Diego meeting that starts on Sunday, but having uncertainty is not necessarily a bad thing.  

10 comments:

  1. I expect a quiet weekend for the Mets brass.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Reese, you can't fake your way thru a whole season with a cadre of weak fill in players. Guys get hurt, those bums then play, the whole team sags.

    So I am a big proponent of having an abundance of pen arms and some really good reserve offensive players.

    Of course, drafting power arms and bats is so critical. I always think of the fumbling Mets picking 2012 4th rounder little 5'7" Branden Kaupe, who had ONLY 4 doubles in 598 plate appearances. What brain surgeon made that pick? And many like them over the years in rounds 2 thru 5.

    Also, Mets in 2013 drafted Smith 11th, Yankeed drafted Judge 32nd. I think most would have thought Judge had a riskier profile, but higher ceiling. Well, after July 2021, Smith hit exactly zero HRs, while Judge hit 80. A slight and insignificant difference LOL. Drafting really well can cover a lot of other blemishes.

    Draft poorly, spend like hell to plug gaps.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Meanwhile in 2014, the Phillies drafted a power bat, Rhys Hoskins, in the 5th round. 148 career HRs and counting. The Mets in that 5th round? Drafted Tyler Moore. Might have been better off drafting Mary Tyler Moore.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It's interesting that no one has signed Dom.

    ReplyDelete
  5. If Dom is smart, he pulls a Rocky and comes into spring training a super-conditioned 205-210. This is now or never time.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Reese, on Jake deGRom today.

    I concur with everyone here that Jake deGrom is an outstanding starting pitcher. But if you go look up career Mets starter statistics, the top five in each category of starting pitching accomplishments (wins vs. losses, strikeout totals, ERA...) you will see something pretty amazing there. Jake's name only appears one time in these categories of career Mets starters. That is overall ERA. Tom Seaver is a close second. But then too, Tom Seaver is in the top five of most all of these pitching categories.

    There is a tremendous upside to signing longterm a healthy Jake deGrom addition to your 2023 rotation. But there is also a noticeable downside as well. Arm injury prone and older now. Best part of his career could be behind him. May now be a gamble.

    A GM has got to factor in both of these things.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I am disappointed that there is no math in this post. You had me hoping for something like the double integral of Diaz' save rate indicating a performance improvement.

    ReplyDelete
  8. CBS is reporting that DeGrom has signed with the Rangers for 5 years, 175 million. Time to go to work replacing him.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Think it is $185 million, big tax saving,ntoo. “ Right-handed starter Jacob deGrom has agreed to a five-year contract with the Texas Rangers, the club announced on Friday night. No financial terms were disclosed by the organization, but MLB.com's Kennedi Landry reports that the deal is worth $185 million.”

    I don’t care, just build me a 100 win team. I will wish Jake success in his future endeavors as soon as he wishes me success in mine.

    ReplyDelete
  10. The Mets won 101 games. DeGrom only won 5 of them.

    ReplyDelete