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12/30/22

Reese Kaplan -- Predicting the Roster While Ignoring Carlos Correa


So let's push aside all of the Carlos Correa contract and health talk for awhile and look at the rest of the Mets team. Without Correa the team is essentially offensively similar to what was put on the field last year. Pitching-wise they should be improved (particularly if the hurlers remain healthier than did the crew in 2022). There are still some issues to resolve.


Bullpen

No one is arguing about the decisions to bring back Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino. The addition of David Robertson more than makes up for the loss of Seth Lugo. The big unknown is whether Brooks Raley's 2022 season was a turning of the screw for the veteran pitcher or if it was a one-off stellar season much like lefty Aaron Loup had for the Mets in 2021. 

In 2022 the Mets had Diaz, Ottavino, Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Drew Smith, Joely Rodriguez and a slew of others for short term stays. Going into 2023 the Mets again have Diaz, Ottavino, Smith and have added both Raley and Robertson. That's seven pitchers last season with some form of track record and only five this year.

The would-be relief pitching core includes wild man Bryce Montes de Oca, long term holdover Stephen Nogosek, Rule 5 former Yankee Zach Greene, holdover veterans John Curtiss, Elieser Hernandez and Joey Lucchesi, 2022 mostly starters Tylor Megill and David Peterson, then a bunch of others including Jeff Brigham, Jose Butto, Stephen Ridings and Tayler Saucedo. 

While it's possible some of this group could emerge to be solid options, many feel the Mets would be better securing at least one more known commodity with a good track record to break up this logjam of wannabes.


Designated Hitter

This space is not going to be devoted to reciting how poorly people in the DH role performed for the Mets last year. Suffice to say that Daniel Vogelbach was passable at best but no one else even hit the level of competency. 

Many feel the best way to go in 2023 is to hand at least the right handed hitting to one of the younger players like Mark Vientos. Others feel that Eduardo Escobar being a switch hitter could be a full time DH for what should be his final year with the club. 

The spend-for-a-pennant bunch would instead like to see the Mets grab hold via free agency or trade one of the veteran solid hitters available to take over this role. Whichever way the front office moves, it can't possibly be worse than what was exhibited in 2022.


Outfielders

One of the great unsettled issues for the upcoming season is where to play Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, Eduardo Escobar, Mark Vientos, Mark Canha, Luis Guillorme and when healthy, Danny Mendick. Rotating Jeff McNeil to left field would open up second base for one of the infielders. 

Remaining with Mark Canha in left field addresses right handed hitting with a decent but unspectacular hitter, but does nothing against right handed pitching (which is the majority of at-bats). 

They could set up a platoon of McNeil in left field against right handed pitching and at second base against left handed pitching with Canha in left. That solution leaves the home run power issue somewhat unaddressed and still leaves the Mets razor thin when it comes to spare outfielders. 

No one is banking on Khalil Lee turning into a star since he's struggling at AAA. Here another outside bat could help, whether as bench material or as the named starter in left. Again a trade or free agency could address the matter, with free agency being the primary avenue if the Correa deal falls through.


So who do you feel belongs and who does not? What players should the Mets target in free agency or trades and who would they give up if it turns out to be the latter? Naturally the plethora of third base options is one surplus they may draw upon to address other needs. 

The pitching is a bit thin after the stellar but older starters, so it would seem looking for AA/AAA starting pitching talent might make some sense.

Put yourself in the GM shoes and tell me what you would do to improve the roster.

12 comments:

  1. I am still all in on the kids if, of course, management perceives them to be significantly better than an earlier hyped Uber prospect, Dillon Herrera.

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  2. I think that Mark Canha gets too little respect in all the discussions surrounding the Mets lineup. Canha does not do spectacular, but he is a solid contributor both offensively and defensively. Here is what he brings to the team: Great at-bats - he works the pitch count and stresses starters; High OBP - he had a .367 last year and has a .348 lifetime; Versatility - he can play all three OF positions and people tend to forget he can play 1B as well; Low strikeouts - 17.9% last season (Schwarber was 29.9%); Positive 2.8 WAR last season. Also, don't forget that he has been working on his power hitting, which yielded some key HRs last year.

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  3. Yes, Paul. And it's interesting that so many fans (including Reese today) ignore the fact that both his 2022 and career #s are better vs RHPs than LH ones.

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  4. Everything 2023 revolves around Correa and the Mets lack of confidence long term for either Baty or Vientos at third base.

    I expect Steve to go all in on Devers if the Correa deal goes south.

    Baty would obviously be in the package along with one if the prospect catchers.

    Plus a lower level chop pitcher like Zeigler

    Could lose Mauricio here too

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  5. The Mets roster right now has some very one dimensional players - Vogie, Ruf...they need to bring in a legit 4th OF. I don't like forcing McNeil into that spot.

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  6. Devers a solid bat, home and away, and hits lefties well, too. He is sub par defensively. Correa hands-sown better fielder. We'll see. Most likely, Correa deal proceeds. Interesting point is that Minnesota, whom he played for in 2022, offered $285MM for Correa.

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  7. TP, the fourth OF spot could go to Baty if he is working on his fielding out there, as he should.

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  8. Why trade for Devers? Wait a year and sign him as a FA.

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  9. Devers is a beast and can you even imagine a lineup with both Devers AND Ohtani it's scary and we'd be doing the scaring. Probably take Baty Mauricio Allen and Parada. Lets see Nimmo CF Marte RF Lindor SS Devers 3B Alonso 1B Ohtani LF McNeil 2B EE/Alvy DH Nido/Alvy C. Wow killer lineup. It's really fun playing with Uncle Stevies 17 Billion and maybe he could dig for some pocket change like say a measly million or 2 for Mack and his amazing writers. Does that work for you guys?

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  10. Now thats next years fantasy lineup and only if we don't get Correa but even if you swap Correa for Devers it's still killer.

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  11. I do my writing here for the love of the game but if someone wants to buy me an adult beverage or two I wouldn't refuse :)

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  12. Beverage? Name the place, and we'll be there (on second thought...)

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