Reese Kaplan -- Welcome to Rule 5 Draft Day!

Mack, Tom and others on the site are who I would normally refer to as the minor league and prospect gurus compared to me.  I follow the Mets minor leagues with interest but know that it's a long road and a difficult climb from great performance in A, AAA or even AAA to replicate it in the majors.  

Sometimes you are caught by pleasant surprise when an unprotected player like Jeff McNeil flourishes and wins the 2022 NL Batting title.  Other times you have people who you were sure were going to be a star only, like Dominic Smith, wind up being released.  

Today is the end of the winter meetings which coincide with the annual exercise of the Rule 5 Draft.  For folks needing a refresher, teams are looking at the possibility to procuring players left unprotected on other clubs to take a place on their own 40-man roster.  In the case of the Mets, they have quite a few available spots there, but it is a little more involved than simply plucking a would-be major league player and declaring victory.  

The Rule 5 draftee must stay on the major league team's roster for the entire season.  The club making the selection must pay the other team $100,000.  A drafted player can be demoted, but must go through the waiver process and can be offered back to the team that lost him for $50,000.  

If they do not want to pay for his return and no other club makes a waiver claim, then this player can be assigned to the minors.  Of course, a team can work out a trade for the player's full rights which includes the ability to demote a player without subjecting him to waivers.  There's a minor league Rule 5 portion, but for today we'll only look at the one for the majors.  

Many sites (ours included) have identified various players who could be worth consideration in this movement from another team.  The Mets draft in the 22nd position but do hold quite a few openings.  Whether they fill them with free agent contracts or Rule 5 drafts, they are one of the more open teams looking to expand their roster. 

For the Mets, the needs are well known.  They need need starting pitching, relief pitching, spare outfielders and other bench pieces.  The issue of staying with the parent club the full season is likely the biggest obstacle preventing more player movement from happening, but there are some interesting names to consider.  

One name who should be on the Mets' list of possibilities is a sidearmer in the Baltimore Orioles organization named Nolan Hoffman.  Going back to the Jeff Innis and Chad Bradford days, the Mets have benefited from guys who throw at an odd angle with minimal stress on the arm.  

Hoffman is in that mold, having struck out 17 in 12 inning in Arizona while simultaneously leading the league with just 1.5 walks per 9 IP.  Good strikeout numbers, excellent control, weird delivery and a lot of openings in the Mets bullpen would suggest that not every relief pitcher has to throw 100 mph to be effective.  

The other pitchers worth considering have been starters and are much more ballyhooed than Hoffman.  The Astros have a righthander turning 26 in 2023 named Jayden Murray whose numbers in the minors are a bit light in terms of the number of games played, but they're hard to ignore.  

He is 17-10 over three minor league seasons with a 2.80 ERA, fanning 8.9 over 9 IP and walking just 2.2.  Those numbers make David Peterson and Tylor Megill look like pikers, though they have each done work in the majors already while Murray has not.

The Red Sox have a similar player named Thad Ward who is also turning 26 next season.  He possesses an 8-10 record with a 2.53 ERA over 51 starts.  He strikes out nearly 11 per 9 IP but like many hard throwers struggles with his control, walking 3.9 over that same span.  I'm wondering if he might be someone better suited for late innings than starting.

The last pitcher worth a look is a starter turned reliever with the Phillies named Erik Miller.  He's posted some very nice numbers in his minor league career, including a 2-1 record and a 2.51 ERA over 48 games.  His strikeout numbers are eye-popping -- 12.1 per 9 IP -- but the walks are alarming at 5.1.  

The 6'5" lefty reminds me on paper of former flamethrower for the Mets organization, Jack Leathersich.  (A quick reminder, in 2013 he fanned 15.7 per 9 IP but walked 6.9).  

The only offensive player who looked worth a flyer is this year's version of Travis Jankowski -- a fringe outfielder who has potential.  Now the Mets knew exactly what they were getting with the veteran former Met.  

However, the Astros have a formerly fringe player named Corey Julks who didn't do much of anything until making a radical swing adjustment which gave him standout performance in AAA (albeit the PCL version of it).  Last season Julks batted .270 while slamming 31 HRs, driving in 89 and stealing 22 bases.  

He's turning 27 for the 2023 season so it's not as if he's going to be a late blooming regular, but as a right handed bench piece who wouldn't rather see him here than Darin Ruf?

It will be interesting to see what all happens with the Mets in the traditional free agent signing and trades that get their initiation during the Winter Meetings, but it's also going to generate some chatter about what minor leaguers on other teams might actually become a part of the New York major league roster.