Tom Brennan - How Many More HRs Will the New Fence Dimensions Result In? Plus: Final Quiz.

NO, NO, NO, NOTHING NEW ON Carlos Correa. 

When you are talking about a contract the size of the GDP of Madagascar, things take time…so just relax. 

Since Joe Biden won’t talk about fences, allow me…

FENCE FOLLIES

We all know that baseball is a game of analytics.  Every decision is analyzed - well, almost every decision.  The 2009 original Citi Field dimensions were decided upon by someone who needed analysis of the psychiatric kind.  

In 2011, when the first of two fence move-ins occurred (the other in 2015), the NY Post reported this:

"According to research conducted by Alderson and his staff, the Mets would have hit a combined 70 more home runs over the past three seasons in Citi Field using the new dimensions. Opponents would have hit a combined 60 more home runs."  

So I'll just guess: had the original 2009 dimensions been moved straight to the 2015 dimensions without the first foolishly inadequate move-in during 2011, over the first 3 seasons (2009-11), I estimate that not 130, but 200, more home runs would have been hit. 

And the later shortened 2015 dimensions still favored the pitchers.

Well, the new 2023 dimensions are supposed to move in the fences 8.5 more feet for about a 50 foot stretch - not a huge length, but I'd say enough to park about 10 more HRs by both the Mets and their opponents annually.

How many more HRs do you think such a move in will result in annually, and which Mets hitters might most benefit from this 3rd inward move?

And is this enough of a move-in to finally make the park more offense-neutral?

A 1969 Quiz Question: Which NY Met lent his glove to President Richard Nixon while he sat in the stands, in case of a foul ball? 

Ans: The great Bobby Pfeil.

Now for the 2022 quiz....

Yes!!! 2022 METS QUIZ QUESTIONS!

Rejoice! My quiz series is over today!

And it will be my final ever quiz.

Finishing today my 10 article series involving quiz questions for different Mets' seasons, starting with 2013, ending with today’s 2022 Mets-related quiz questions.

Why quiz questions? 

To allay the boredom of a quiet and uneventful off-season, naturally.

But now that joltin’ Jose Peroza, Junior Tilien (once he turns 20, will he still be Junior?), 100 Watt Wyatt Young and perhaps even jettison-man Jett Williams appear blocked in their exhilarating and soaring upward ascents thru the Mets minors by the presumed Lindor/Correa Blockade, on to the 2022 Q&A we go.

Questions at the top, answers below, to give you time to see if you can guess the right answers before you actually read the right answers.  

If you can't guess all the answers without peeking, are you REALLY a Mets fan?

1) Which Mets hurler was tied for 144th in MLB wins by a pitcher, with 2 fewer wins than mighty Mychal Givens??

2) Which excellent pitcher, at the 2013 start of my “quiz question series”, also had a very solid year as an ex-Met in 2022?

3) Two ex-Mets pitchers had these nearly identical 2022 stats…can you name which two?   

* Starter #1: 10-10, 3.94, 135 IP, 95 K.  

* Starter #2:    8-9, 3.73, 137 IP, 95 K.

4) What Mets player pulled off what perhaps no one else in MLB history has ever done, rallying from 50 points down in late July to win the NL batting title?

5) Which Mets hitter led the major leagues in a significant offensive category, but finished 4th on the team in WAR? 

6) Why is having a guy named Buck on your team always a good idea?

7) Which team members should win team MVP and pitcher of the year?

8) Which numerical coincidence exists between the subs and scrubs' brutal hitting through mid-2015 and the brutal hitting of the 2022 Mets' subs and scrubs?

9) The Mets decided that Dom Smith and JD Davis could perform well enough that they went with them, rather than sign an available free agent. Who was that free agent, and what did a major league star say to advocate for the player the Mets passed on?

10) What is my favorite brand of vino?

11) Which class was easy, which was really tough?

12) Bonus question…which Met hit 122 points, 101 OB%, and .332 slug % points lower in 2022 than in his peak career season?

13) Bonus Question # 2: Why did the Mets only poke 171 homers in 2022?

See Answers Below.

Answers:

1) Jake won just 5, Givens won 7.  Jake was tied for the 144th most wins in the majors. In 2021, he was tied for 92nd most wins. His 2021 AND 2022 seasons wins combined (12) would have been enough to tie him for 27th most in 2022. But, we all agree in one voice, he was a WINNER!

2) Zack Wheeler was 7-5, 3.42 in 2013.  Still very tough this many years later.  Escaped from the Wilpon Plantation and lived to tell about.

3) Noah Syndergaard and Chris Flexen. How many of you would have ever thought back in 2016 that Flexen could possibly clone Thor?  

Of course, Flexen had far better combined seasons in 2020 and 2021 than did Noah the Blonde. Image isn't everything, the Dark Knight once told me.

4) Such an easy question, but I like to remind people of Jeff McNeil's remarkable feat whenever I can. Heck of a golfer, too. He once shot a 59 at Canyon Lakes Golf Course. Which I believe was 12 under par.

5) Pounding Pete Alonso had 131 RBIs, leading the NL, but his 4.0 WAR trailed teammates Lindor, McNeil, and Nimmo in WAR.  Quite remarkable to have 4 guys with over 20 combined WAR.

6) I asked this same question back in 2013, but in 2013, it referred to catcher John Buck, who drove in 60 runs in 101 games as the team's primary catcher.  In 2022, Buck Showalter got a lot more out of his team than Luis Rojas had when he managed the season before.

7) Edwin Diaz, and Edwin Diaz.  Without Edwin, the season through August would not have been nearly as pretty, as he was virtually invincible every time out.

8) A .184 average. Several years back, I wrote this about the 2015 Wilpon "walking dead" back up hitters: 

"The Mets in mid-2015 looked pretty awful and hopeless. They could not hit.  Articles were being written mid way through the season that it was the Mets' worst scoring team since 1968's squad scored just 473 runs.

"In 2015, the Excruciating Eight - Dilson Herrera, Darrel Ceciliani, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Eric Campbell, Johnny Monell, John Mayberry, Danny Muno, and Anthony Recker - hit a collective, incomprehensibly bad .184 (129 hits in 702 ABs, with those 702 pathetic at bats constituting an astounding 13.5% of all non-pitcher Mets ABs in 2015)."  Their motto? Undoubtedly, “make love, not WAR”.

In spite of the excruciating 8, the 2015 Metsies somehow made the World Series.

In 2022, this happened: 804 ABs by the lowest 14 hitters on the roster resulted in those dudes hitting a collective - wait for it - .184.

9. - An article in late March 2022 provided the answer - Kyle Schwarber: 

The Phillies got the big bat they needed in left field. The Phillies on Sunday announced their four-year deal with Kyle Schwarber, which is worth $79 million…“He’s a proven winner,” Bryce Harper said before the team’s workout at BayCare Ballpark. “Everywhere he’s gone, he’s done a really good job. It just gives us a huge opportunity to fill that void in left field, and it gives us a huge opportunity to get that much better.” 

“Harper made it clear that the Philadelphia needed to get somebody in left field. He specifically mentioned Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos and Schwarber. Harper felt so strongly about the three that he spoke on Tuesday night with Phillies managing partner John Middleton and other club officials about them.  

“Schwarber is not coming to Philadelphia for his glove. He is coming to hit homers and show the Phillies how to win. He is regarded as a tremendous person and clubhouse presence. He has postseason experience with 121 plate appearances in 35 career playoff games. He helped the Cubs win the 2016 World Series.“

So. all the late-signing Schwarber did was crush 46 regular season dingers. In 315 Mets at bats, meanwhile, Davis and Smith combined to hit 4 balls out for the Mets.  A mere 42 HR gap between them and Kyle.

10) The Adam Ottavino winery blend, best consumed while eating sharp cheddar sliders.

11) “Season 101” was easy, “Playoffs 101” was a very tough class indeed.

12) No, that was not Robby Cano, whose drop in 2022 slash stats vs. his peak MLB season was even worse, but the correct answer is Dom Smith. His .616 slug % in 2020 is the standing Mets record, while Bud Harrelson had a higher slug % 9 times than Dom Smith’s .284 in 2022.

13. Why only 171 HRs? Partly the park (9 less homers at home) but also, McCann, Nido, Guillorme, Davis, and Smith had 20% of Mets at bats in 2022 and hit a horrific 12 homers. That will be partly addressed by Alvarez, Baty, and perhaps Vientos power at bats added in 2023.

Partly due to that, the 2022 Metsies never made it to the World Series.

How many questions did you get right?

And the final quiz question and answer....

Will I ever do a quiz question series again?  

Answer: I very sincerely doubt it.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!