Tom Brennan - Thoughts on Jake as He Exits Queens

A $185 million dollar smile.

I threw a bunch of thoughts out on Facebook over the weekend about Jacob deGrom leaving the Mets and his contribution here in NY.  

I got lots of agreement, lots of the usual negative nabobs of negativism ("the critics who lack critical thinking skills") going negative, and some honest differences of opinion ("I hear you, but I think this...").  Lots of feedback.

I will try to spell out those (mostly my) thoughts in a concise way here. 

JAKE LEAVING

I don't blame him - he is a quiet soul, grew up outside the big city, was not a college stud (9th round selection, after all), and no doubt (in my mind) found NY less desirable than Texas because of:

1) Omnipresent hyperactive media

2) Tough Mets fans who've seen little true success for all their fan loyalty and are understandably cranky

3) There being NY area fans, who are far less polite in general than, say, St Louis fans

4) Far lower state and local tax bills in Texas than in NY - easily $10 million over the course of this contract.

5) Failure to win anywhere near as much as he might have expected, due to lack of offensive support and an often undermining bullpen

6) Believe he is a Christian (he attended Calvary Christian Academy in Florida), has a young son and daughter, and may have felt the cultural and spiritual environment in Texas was far more to his liking for his family than the progressive state of NY.   No small thing - I'd do likewise.

7) Money and years: given his injury history the Mets were understandably unwilling to match the 5 years and $185 million Texas agreed to - I made the points that we were thrilled with the Wright extension, but he only had 1,400 PAs during his 7 year extension; the Cespedes 4 year disaster contract; and the "swallow hard if you want Diaz that bad" Cano contract, which predictably became an albatross of prehistoric size.  Many fans were disappointed that the Mets didn't outbid them, except a) they were not given a chance to do so, and 2) those fans can't balance their own checkbooks.

8) Driving to and from the park had to be a pain in the butt, because the traffic here gets "brutaler and brutaler".

9) Far less cold weather in Texas.  Cold weather and firing seeds into catchers' mitts can be injury-inducing, better to be nice, warm and loose.  I still think the bitterly cold May swing through Colorado and Minnesota in Harvey's ascendant 2013 might have been a contributing factor in him needing TJS (just speculating there).

THE WHOLE IS LESS THAN THE SUM OF THE PARTS

Over the years, I have had many employees.  Most in my view (I'll exclude my current employees, of course, who are simply dynamite) have given a reasonable effort, and that's it, and don't exude a passion for the job, extra effort,  and passion for the success of the company.  It's a job, they want to do reasonably well and advance at a reasonable pace.  Work-life balance. Not try to climb the ladder "fast and furious".

I think Max Scherzer, Edwin Diaz, and Justin Verlander exhibit a true champion's zeal for winning, not just being satisfied to be performing well.  

On the other hand, we've heard Jake is a fierce competitor, but I for a long time felt his goal was to perform his "high octane precision fastball, high octane nasty precision slider" role at a high level, and if that led to wins, well, he did his share.  If not, well, he did his share.

I felt during his 2 win-starved Cy Young years that he was rewarded for that approach.  His teammates' offense was weak and the bullpen was often debacle-inducing.  I did not, however, see Jake try deliberately to reduce his pitch count by pitching to contact, as a Tom Seaver did - Tom punched out lots of hitters, but he was a finesse guy, too, who wanted very badly to complete - and WIN - games.  

Jake I felt he would go full throttle, be done after 6 or 7 innings, leave tied or with a slight lead, and hope the pen wouldn't choke over the final third of the game.  If finesse could have led to more 2nd pitch contact outs rather than 10 pitch punch outs, and kept superior Jake's pitch count lower and in games an inning or so longer, and had his shaky pen had less outs to get, I think he and the Mets win a lot more.

But that might have prevented him from getting the Cy Youngs. Maybe instead of 21 total wins in his two Cy Young years, he would have had a higher ERA while compiling 28 or 30 wins, even if he garnered no salary-inflating Cy Young awards.  He got those award for doing what he did - averaging 10 wins in 32 starts.  That's my take.  Many felt Jake did all he could and deserved zero blame - well, I disagreed.

A NY Post columnist just wrote that he felt Jake would not have the same zeal as Verlander and Scherzer in modifying his game as he ages - right or wrong in that opinion, it aligns with my thoughts on Jake not modifying his pitchipollng repertoire to throw fewer pitches per out, and stay in games longer. 

Secondly, I felt he put himself above the fray in not hitting batters.  

The Mets in 2.4 seasons (shortened 2020, 2021, and 2022) were hit 251 times.  That's insanely high, and screams for strong boundaries and retaliation - Jake, however, in 38 starts in those 3 seasons hit just one batter.

Messrs. Max and Bassitt hit 26 guys in just 2022, no doubt some of them to send a message. Perhaps if Jake had hit 10 guys over that stretch and also threw more inside pitches that hitters had to dive out of the way of, the Mets would have been hit (and injured) less.  Naturally, some bonehead fans failed to see any connection, and resented my accusing Jake of being a de facto wimp in that regard - but I believe the numbers speak for themselves.

Gibson, Clemens, Drysdale, and Pedro - four greats - all would have been all too happy to send warnings and hit guys, to protect their own hitters.  Why do I say that?  It was part of their repertoires.

Sterling Starling Marte got a broken finger in early September.  Teams had little fear of retribution since the Mets only hit opponents 60% as much as Mets hitters got nailed.  That easy September schedule sputtered due to lack of offense, and the lack of offense was due to lack of Marte.  Instead of winning the Division and skipping the Wild Card round, they got stuck playing that round, lost quickly, and left quietly.   

Maybe if Jake was viewed as a retaliator Marte does not get hit there.  Maybe opposing pitchers think, "I better be really careful pitching inside." But Jake helped it be open season on Mets hitters due to his (as I see it) pacifist passivity and lack of love for inside pitches.  

"Thou shalt not hit thy opponent unnecessarily". And "Mets' hitters can turn the other cheek - and wear armor." 

Of course, Pete and Lindor were both beaned in 2022, and miraculously, both dodged major bullets with those.  The offense would have been staggered if either missed much time. Maybe a reputation for quick staff retaliation by Mets pitchers would help avoid such opposing pitchers' "slips".

I also indicated I felt that hitters are more inspired hitting behind fiery dudes like Max and Verlander than quiet Jake.  I wrote that, while unprovable, if Max had pitched in every Jake start for the Mets the past 5 years, I think he would have won a lot more games - because, simply, he is Mighty Mad Max - he takes not winning very personally.  He has the fire that inspires.  Or when Bartolo pitched for the Mets, he won a lot, because all the players were loose and happy, not pressing to not let Jake down.

I also felt Jake may have calculated his 2022 return timing for maximum contract impact.  Return a month later, and not as much of an opportunity to show you are healthy and durable.  But also not too soon, to risk injury or fatigue which might scare away post-season suitors.  My speculation is that he could have returned sooner, but didn't. Looked like the Division was in the bag, so why rush?

And his finances trumped all, in my assessment. Bad health or lack of ample enough demonstation of good health?  Lower contract offers.

Max, meanwhile, strained his oblique - but shocked everyone how fast he came back from it.   Weeks ahead of expectations.  That said "Warrior" to me.  I like Max/Edwin warrior types a lot.

I told fans if I had to not pick one of 4 guys, which might that be - Edwin Diaz, Max, Verlander, or Jake.  Definitely, Jake was the odd man out.   

Edwin was a fireball who went mano a mano with the opposition and slayed them almost every time.  Plenty of fire and moxie. Max, little things like injuries get sloughed aside, and he wanted to pitch late into games.  Verlander will be a Hall of Famer for a reason.

I said, point blank, that I thought the Mets would get more value out of their 5 year, $100 million Edwin Diaz contract than Jake would provide in his 5 year, $185 million deal. Time will tell. 

And I simply enjoyed watching Edwin dealing.  I love that he loves NY,  I love that he saved 57 games once with Seattle, with fire.  And I cut him slack for being rattled in his Mets debut year of 2019 when the baseballs were absolutely juiced.

Lastly, I would post that I would have offered Jake 5 years, at $2 million a start.  WHAT A DEAL!! 

Yeah, I know it can't work that way, but consider the upside.  He would have needed just 93 starts in 5 years to start making more $$!  If he could have averaged 30 starts a year?  $300 million!

If I were the owner I would have been happy to do that deal, because I would have thought he'd fall short of 18 starts a year over 5 years due to injuries, and I'd be done paying.  I did, however, suggest the Mets give him a 1 year $50 million offer, and wait a season for the multi-year, but for obvious reasons he would not do that - he knows his injury history.

With all of the above, I was called by some Facebook fellas stuff like "Hater".  No, I am just a non-hater who hates being called a hater when all I hate is that people cannot be analytical and use critical thinking without resorting to calling non-haters haters.      

But I have never worn rose-colored glasses and never will.  Jake to me always felt like the whole was less than the sum of the parts.  He can certainly prove otherwise to the watching baseball world, and prove my speculations to be mularkey.

That's my excruciatingly long take - you of course have yours.  

Say what you want.  Just don't call me a hater - I hate that!

P.S. I saw this Monday night…says volumes about stuff like why, in Cy Young 2019, the Mets were just 14-18 in games he started:

According to Buster Olney, the only team willing to

accept DeGrom's demand of 5 years was Texas.

Mets, Braves, Yanks, Dodgers and Giants all said no.

He also said that DeGrom informed his agents not to

contact the Mets.

As an aside, a Mets insider told Olney that DeGrom

wanted nothing to do with Mets off the field activities,

did not hang around the clubhouse after the game for

more than a few minutes, and did not engage

teammates in any meaningful way.