Paul Articulates –Will McNeil do it again?

As Mets fans know, Jeff McNeil won the NL batting title last year with a .326 batting average.  This was a point higher than Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers and ten points higher than the best AL average.  He also was awarded the Sliver Slugger award – the first Mets second baseman since Edgardo Alfonso to receive this honor.  This was a fantastic accomplishment for a player who had struggled in 2021 after trying to up his power numbers.  So the question for today is, “Can Jeff do it again?”

Let’s first look at his history.  Jeff McNeil has posted high numbers everywhere he played.  He hit .446 as a senior in high school and posted a .348 average at Long Beach State as a junior earning him a berth on the all-Big West first team.  He hit his way through the minor leagues, and by 2018 was hitting a combined .342 in AA and AAA ball by mid-year.  McNeil came up to the Mets MLB club in July, 2018 and played 63 games, batting an impressive .329 and drawing enough votes for a sixth place finish in the rookie of the year voting.  He continued into 2019 with a .318 average and posted a .311 in 2020.  

McNeil’s strength as a hitter is his ability to see the ball very well and utilize his outstanding bat-to-ball skills to either put the ball in play, or foul off a borderline pitch to gain another chance.  Those same skills also allow him to control the bat angle well enough to hit to any field depending upon the location of the pitch.  This is not the guy you want to use a defensive shift against or he will pick you to pieces.

Unfortunately, the ability to consistently poke the ball into an empty part of the field is somewhat of a lost art in the baseball analytics world.  Newer stats like XwOBA and WRC+ are looking for people who hit the ball harder, farther, and at a higher launch angle than our favorite batting champ.   

Last year, despite slashing an impressive .326/.382/.454 he was only 12th in wRC+ (tied with teammate Pete Alonso), 17th in wOBA, and 68th in xwOBA.  That’s because modern day analytics just don’t reward an 80mph flare for a base hit into left field.  In fact, xwOBA would reward a smoking line-out to the shift player in short right more than the base hit flare to left.  

That’s not to say that McNeil can’t hit it hard – he has sent a couple of 2-irons into the stands in the Pepsi Porch every year he has played with the Mets.  He just hits those drives when he gets a pitch in the sweet spot, but doesn’t allow himself to fall into a bad count waiting for a mistake to end up there.  This is why Jeff McNeil had the 3rd best K rate in baseball last year.

You know that baseball rewards the big hitters in the game.  Analytics are skewed towards the long ball hitters.  Free agent salaries are highest among the big hitters.  Look at the following table – the big money follows the big hitters – there is only one pitcher (and no singles hitters) among the 15 highest total value contracts in baseball history so far.

Consider this:  Jeff McNeil is going into his sixth MLB season, which is the last arbitration-eligible season before he becomes a free agent.  If the Mets do not offer him a long-term extension this year, he has a chance to test the market for his fair value.   

A batting title doesn’t hurt for value, but the above list only produced three batting titles (Turner in 2021, Betts in 2018, Rodriguez in 1996).  It produced many more extra base hits.  

So McNeil has a choice to make – does he try to improve his power numbers again to improve his marketability, or does he go for a second consecutive batting title by sticking with what he does best?  As a big fan of #1, I hope that the Mets reward Jeff McNeil with a lucrative multi-year extension and don’t force him to make that choice.  

What do you think?