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1/30/23

Reese Kaplan -- Contact Hitting Isn't Valued Like Other Metrics


In the realm of New York Mets' financial transactions that have taken place this off season, the recent news about the contract for Jeff McNeil comes as a piece of somewhat unexpected and frankly underappreciated news. According to the terms disclosed among various professional sportswriters, McNeil is slated to earn $12.5 million per season for the next four years.

The first piece of news is the good one. The Mets have not been all that good in their recent pre-Cohen past about extending their own ballplayers unless it was about preventing them leaving for free agency. While it's been common practice for the Braves, Dodgers, Astros and others to ensure their in-house resources remain that way for a long, long time, it was surely not the Mets way of doing business.

Now throw into the mix the variable of someone who was not given a great 2023 salary and who was looking to submit to the whims of an arbiter, it seemed as if the days of Jeff McNeil continuing his playing career in a Mets uniform were coming to a bitter end. Now it was somewhat understandable given the pipeline that contains Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and further down in the pipeline Jett Williams, but the manner in which the current major league batting champion was being treated in terms of compensation and his roster spot on the team seemed highly questionable.


Now we come back to the contract and the money securing McNeil's future in the Mets lineup. $12.5 million isn't exactly chump change and pretty much any one of us would be head over heels in salary orbit if our bosses treated us with that much financial love.

Baseball, however, is a business in which information about salaries, contract terms and the competitive nature of fellow players is well known by fans, media and fellow baseball executives. For the number two player in the game at the position of second base, it seems a bit on the light side, particularly when less accomplished players on the roster like one Brandon Nimmo got granted a deal for twice as long and for more than triple the amount being paid.

If we're going to go down the list of compensation given to other players, it starts to get somewhat ugly very quickly. Look at the twin pair of $40 million plus given to the top two starting pitchers. How about the $15 million per season extended to a guy who's not yet thrown an American major league pitch? Smiling Carlos Carrasco is going to earn $14 million for the upcoming year as the fifth starter. Then there is the two year deal for pitcher Jose Quintana that cost an extra $500K per season over what they're giving McNeil.

It starts to get really difficult when you look at the other long term player deals. Everyone is well aware of the $341 million forked over to secure the services of shortstop Francisco Lindor for pretty much the rest of his career. Edwin Diaz most definitely deserves his $21 million per season for five more years.


Where it will really get interesting is when the financial architects behind the McNeil deal set to work on crafting one for teammate Pete Alonso. Not only do chicks dig the long ball, so too do bankers. The Mets generously reached the $14.5 million 2023 salary through an offer to head off arbitration after his 2022 season with 40 HRs and league leading 130 RBIs that was worth 4.4 in WAR. Given the $8 to $9 million each WAR is worth, $14.3 million for Alonso is certainly a bargain.

By the way, Jeff McNeil's 2022 season was worth 5.1 using the same WAR credential. His new deal is worth $12.5 million per season for more collected value but not as a slugger. The game of baseball continues to create significantly less value for contact hitters.

Bear in mind I am not at all complaining here about the contract offered to Jeff McNeil. He is every bit as much a critical part of the team's future as are these other players on the roster. Jeff McNeil and his people obviously felt it was a fair deal and no one held a gun to his head to force him to sign it.


What it does open up is the question about what it will cost to get Pete Alonso to ensure a cleanup hitting spot in the Mets lineup for likely twice as many years? We can all hazard guesses here but Jeff McNeil's deal will look like chump change by comparison. An eight year Pete Alonso contract will be well north of a quarter million dollars. No one will feel empathy for the Steve Cohen financial situation as long as it keeps the best of the Mets for the foreseeable future. His tax burdens will help keep fannies in the seats and that is something was as Mets fans have not experienced before under the Wilpon regime. I think we'd all like to get used to it.

3 comments:

  1. Jeff gets $50 million, plus a team option for a 5th yr? I am sure he had 2 reactions:

    1) I’m rich!

    2) I wish it was more - but I’m rich!

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  2. Jeff was smart.

    He knew he would be a 32+ yr old no pop infielder when hid ARB yrs run out.

    Now he is "stuck" with 12.5mil a yr.

    Wish I could go back to when I met him and tell him he was going to make this kind of ching someday

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  3. I agree that McNeil's contributions are not valued as much as they should be, but that is driven by the free agent market, so it's not like he got screwed. I am very happy that he is a long term Met and also very happy that he doesn't have to revert to trying to hit with power again (like that difficult 2021 season) to earn value. He is locked in and can hit .300+ for the Mets for the next 5 years.

    ReplyDelete