Reese Kaplan -- Play the What-If Game Should Correa Not Happen

Awaiting the resolution to the Carlos Correa contract negotiation situation is starting to feel less like waiting for the arrival of some grand prize to be treasured and more like sitting in the uncomfortable chairs in the doctor's office when you arrived on time yet there is no regard for your actions whatsoever. 

Now the story about a mystery team expressing interest has hit the media and while the leak is likely out of Correa's camp in an attempt to pressure the Mets to move towards a conclusion, the fact is it feels as if there is nothing indicative that settlement is forthcoming.

Of course, if things fall apart completely, it will be very interesting to see what the Mets have in mind to do to address the need for a bat. Last year Eduardo Escobar was a disappointment having clubbed a subpar 20 HRs and only driving in 69 (though he had fewer than 500 ABs due to some time on the IL). 

A typical season for Escobar when he received that $20 million contract (assuming the third year was never exercised and instead they paid the mandatory $500K buyout).

Go back through his history and Escobar has produced seasons with as many as 35 HRs and 118 RBIs, but coincidentally both of those totals came during 2019, never before approached nor equaled since. 

It appears in retrospect he had a single truly outstanding year. His subsequent performance in 2020 was horrific with a .212 batting average, 4 HRs and 20 RBIs. 

Granted the COVID shortened season depressed a lot of cumulative stats, but batting average and run production shouldn't have been affected that drastically.

In 2021 he came back nicely, hitting .253 with 28 HRs and 90 RBIs in a season split between Arizona and Milwaukee. While it wasn't quite on par with his 2019 production, it certainly suggested that the magic wasn't gone from his bat though the in-between poor season likely depressed his price tag significantly. 

As a contrast, Michael Conforto just inked a nice deal for himself with the Giants despite averaging .255 with 28 HRs and 85 RBIs per full season. Escobar is a bit down at 20 HRs and 70 RBIs with a .254 average. Though the power productivity is down a bit, is it really 80% less based upon what they each are being paid?

A story came out that the Detroit Tigers are interested in the services of Escobar. In a way, that's a nice problem to have as he becomes somewhat extraneous if somehow Correa becomes a member of the Mets. They wouldn't likely have to pay down much on the remaining year obligation of his contract and it would then reduce the logjam on the infield.

Prior to the Correa on-again/off-again contract issue arose, mny folks wanted to see the third base position simply gifted to rookie Brett Baty. There's no arguing his rank as a hitting prospect in the Mets organization, but he's not had very much time at AAA and his defense while not quite at the J.D. Davis level of challenge, it's not going to remind anyone of Brooks Robinson either.

Then there is fellow rookie third baseman Mark Vientos whose defense is allegedly even worse. His future is either in the outfield or at DH since first base is fully occupied. Since he hits right handed, it's entirely possible he becomes a younger alternative to the rough output of Mr. Darin Ruf.

So take a moment to think through the what-if question concerning the Mets and Correa never coming to an equitable position that results in joint signatures on a large stack of papers. Rafael Devers is now off the board with Boston's new contract.

Do you bank on Baty? Do you veer towards Vientos? Do you entertain Escobar for a sophomore season? Or is there another third base option worth considering in the trade market? Can you live with one of these in-house options if you instead try to deliver a DH?

As Carlos Correa increasingly resembles Claude Rains in his best invisible man days, what would you do at third base?