Do you tilt up or down with Alvarez as a 2023 Met?
An oft-debated question, isn't it? “Is he ready?”
I'll answer it for you.
I say yes. Yes, yes, yes.
Even if the Mets want to slow the Alvarez Express just a bit.
Ready is he. Right now.
Why?
Baseball is a series of adjustments.
When Frankie Alvarez got hot in AA, he went to AAA and struggled for a while. Still got on base at a good rate, but struggled briefly.
Much was made of that struggle by many doubters and "let's-slow-him-downers".
He was coming around, though, in mid-to-late August in AAA, but then hurt his foot/ankle area (post-season surgical touch up eventually followed).
That led to 2 1/2 weeks on the IL.
Then an 0-4 return to AAA in his first game back in September.
Then...the following "I've adjusted, thank you" was obvious and huge:
He went 17 for his last 43 at bats in AAA, with 10 walks. And 3 HRs, no doubt bombs.
So, is 17 for 43 with 10 walks good enough for you? On base > 50%.
Does it convince you?
It convinces me.
Sure, he came up very late in the season to the Mets and went 2 for 12 with 2 walks. Adjustment process.
I look at the positive there, though - even during that mini-adjustment period in a true pressure cooker, he got on base 4 of 14 times.
- That's about the overall OBP rate of the Mets' catchers in 2022.
And his two hits were monstrous - a HR and double both in the 110 MPH range.
That velocity provides a downside buffer cushion - when his batted balls are hit that fast, the outfielders have less time to track them down. Those they can't track down are - you guessed it - HITS. Those that scream past outfield fences are - you guessed it - HITS. And hits large and small help your batting average.
Alvarez will have all spring training to adjust further.
He's ready. September’s hot streak? Well,to me, that proved it.
I am not a doubter - and I hope you adjust your "inner evaluator."
Of course, the WBC tournament will open up MANY spring at bats for Alvarez. You can have management pre-planning to send you down, which may be their plan, but then find themselves unable to do so if you (in this case Alvarez) hit like Pete Alonso did in spring training in his 2019 rookie season:
.352/.387/.620 in 22 games.
Just do that, kiddo, and you stay. Schedule the launches. With a DH slot, I see no reason to not have Narvaez, Nido, AND Alvarez on the opening day roster.
QUIZ QUESTION:
You’re the GM. How many 2023 at bats will each of the following get?
Alvarez
Baty
Vientos
Mauricio
I will reserve my own answers for my responses tomorrow.
The Mets signed TWO vets catchers to catch their vet rotation. My guess is based on one of the vets being traded during the season and he them being called up to share duties.
ReplyDeleteAlvarez: 200
Baty: 300
Vientos (DH) 250
Mauricio 0
I think he has a shot, but the catcher position is crowded with Nido and Narvaez there - maybe the Mets want to watch them all in spring to see what shakes out. Hoping to see Alvarez get plenty of big league action!
ReplyDeleteAlvarez: 250
Baty: 400
Vientos: 100
Mauricio: 0
Like your estimates, gentlemen.
ReplyDeleteMe?
Alvarez 350
Baty 400 (agree, Paul)
Vientos 150
Mauricio 100 - I think he is called up after a very strong AAA showing, and I saw somewhere he is in their MLB top 100.
Vientos is in no one’s top 100, but he can sure hit HRs, so I think he surprises many people in 2023. I bet he worked like a dog this off season to improve.
So, that is 1,000 total at bats. If they were in Pittsburgh, it would be 1500+
My guess is (sadly) the seasoned pitching at the AAA level will knock Mauricio down a peg or two.
ReplyDeletePersonally I would leave Alvarez at AAA for half a season. Why? because his bat might be ready but I don't think that his work behind the plate is ready for the ML. His value to the Mets is not just as a DH but as a young talented catcher.
ReplyDeleteAlvarez or Vientos would have made a lot more sense had the Mets GM not signed about 3 potential DH type players. How many do the Mets need?
Baty 400 (agree with the above)
Vientos 200
Alvarez 200
Mauricio 100. I think he will show enough to get a call-up late in the year.
All the kids start the season at Syracuse. They’ll have to hit their way to NY or fill in for an injury. Who’ll be first? Don’t count out. Mauricio.
ReplyDeleteViper, good points. Me? In part I am campaigning for "early Alvarez" because I'd like to see one home-grown offensive Mets player make the Hall of Fame someday. I think Pete has a shot, but he has to be awesome for years to get there. Alvarez might struggle a bit in 2023, but I'd rather see him do that and add on an extra 15 HRs and 35 RBIs by an early call up, because HOF voters will factor in the gross #s on career HRs and RBIs when they vote. Every little bit helps.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, as they are set up, I could wait until June or July for him.
Woodrow, Mauricio knows his flaws to date. As soon as he tightens them up, I think he will be a solid major leaguer.
ReplyDeleteI think that unlike Strawberry, who mashed righties and found lefties tough, the switch hitting Mauricio has that advantage, even if overall Strawberry was the better talent.
As Keith Law says "he's a hacker".
ReplyDeleteI like Mauricio a lot but I’m not comparing him to Strawbery!
ReplyDelete