Tom Brennan - Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia and Bryce Montes de Oca: A Comparison

I expect big things out of the mountainous righty in 2023. 

As we have now entered pitchers and catchers month, I am seemingly the loudest proponent of Bryce Montes de Oca (BMDO), who somehow seems to evade the Mets' Top 30 Prospect radar screen.

Let's briefly break down his career, then compare him to two major leaguers who have had much MLB reliever success.  Perhaps, then, you'll see why I hold this prospect, BMDO, in high regard.

BMDO was drafted in the 9th round (260th overall) of 2018 (interestingly, Jacob deGrom was a 9th rounder, 272nd overall, in 2010).

Immediately, before an official pro inning, BMDO needed Tommy John surgery, had a tough stretch of getting over arm injuries - and then came the 2020 COVID lockout.  Quite a Delay of Game Penalty.

Bizarrely, such circumstances are how BMDO finally made his pro debut in 2021, a long ways off from his 2018 draft night.  Not typically a good sign.  Low expectations were the logical conclusion of most.  He was in totally "prove it to me" mode.

So, in 2021, BMDO is used rather lightly and cautiously, just 26 outings in Brooklyn and 2 games in Binghamton.

1-3, 4.73 in 2021 in Brooklyn in 32 innings. Allowed 22 hits, 27 walks, 5 HBP, 20 runs. Not good. 

42 Ks, though?  Not bad.  1 HR allowed, also not bad.  6 for 6 in saves?  Nice.

His 2021 Binghamton cameo, though, was attention-getting.  1.2 IP, 1 H, no walks, all 5 outs by Ks.  OK, big man, you have our attention.

On to 2022.

Binghamton - wildness persists, 14 walks in 17.1 IP, 1-1, 3.12, 11 H, 24 Ks, 3 saves.

Syracuse’s team pitching sucked, so nothing was holding him back, and so off to Syracuse he went.

In AAA, 30 games, 3.44, 34 innings, a still-high, but declining 24 BBs (and 6 HBP), 24 H, 56 Ks in 34 IP, including 47 Ks in his last 24 IP, a crazy rate.  

8 saves, and 11 of 14 in 2022, giving him a fine 17 of 20 in his career.  

44 total games in 2022 in the minors, 51 IP, and remarkably, no HRs allowed.

A closer look reveals he gave up 17 earned runs in 7 of his outings in 2022.  In the other 37 outings, he gave up just 2 earned runs.  My speculation is that coming up to AAA in 1 1/2 years of pro pitching, and 50 pro innings, is quite a leap for anyone, leading to a few rough outings - growing pains.  

But when he was good, he was VERY good.  In AAA, he had many dominating outings in just his second pro year pitching.  Few players pitch more than half a season in AAA in just their second year of pro pitching.

Then he had one bad inning in his few Mets September outings, still keeping in mind he  was in his second year, but fanned 6 in 3.1 innings of pitching, giving him 53 Ks in his last 27 innings pitched in 2022.

Sounds to me like a Top 30 prospect, I dunno about you.

Ask yourself this in another way. Do you REALLY think, after watching the Mets top 30 over the years have so many top 30 guys vaporize, that this guy, as I presented above, deserves to not be in the Top 30?  It honestly feels to me that half of the official Mets Top 30 prospects fizzle out before ever gracing a major league doorstep.  So why is BMDO not on it?

Now on to Dellin Betances.  

Dellin, a fellow giant like BMDO stature-wise, was shaky for years in the Yankees minors and ended up throwing 661 minor league innings, fanning 748, 4.23 ERA, 55 HBP, and 365 walks.  Similar to the similarly hard-throwing BMDO except far more Betances minors innings. 

In fact, in his 2nd to last minors season in 2012, DB was 6-9, 6.44, with 99 walks and just 124 Ks in 131 innings.  Awful.

But it clicked for him and as an often-dominating major leaguer, a 2.53 ERA in 394 IP, a stunning 633 Ks, and a much tamer 183 walks, while allowing just 240 hits and just 26 HRs.

Will BMDO be able to register a similar trajectory?

Moving on to Jeurys Familia: 

Minors debut at age 18, and in 2012 at age 22, 9-9, 4.73, 73 walks in 137 IP and just 128Ks.  Mediocre, huh?   

Fast-forward a few seasons to 2015 and 2016, though, and the 6'3", 240 reliever had 94 saves in those 2 seasons for the Mets, and in 156 innings, walked just 50 while fanning 170 and allowing just 7 HRs, with a 2 year ERA of 2.20. Awesome.

Will BMDO follow a similar trajectory?  Time will tell. I'd not be surprised.

Even recently departed 6'5" 240 (a bit, I dunno, small by comparison) Trevor May started out quite wild in the minors, but harnessed his skills into a solid major league reliever role with reasonably good control.

The above comparison is why I have very high hopes for BMDO, even in 2023 in Queens.  

Unlike the other 2, he rapidly climbed a long way in 2 years of pro pitching, starting out in Full A ball, not in lower A ball St Lucie, while spending over half his second year in 2022 in AAA. Why can't that quick upwards trajectory continue?  

And his 2 minors years represent a stronger body of work than that of either of the other 2 big boys.

Fangraphs, as I've noted a few times have estimated BMDO’s 2023. I have not looked in the past few weeks to see if any changes by them - when I looked, their estimates BMDO for 44 MLB innings in 2023, and a 3.57 ERA, with well over 11 Ks per 9, and only slightly more than a walk every two innings, which if achieved, would be a real solid 2023 performance.

Me?  I think those #s are achievable in 2023, and perhaps superior numbers to follow in 2024.

 I'd take another Betances or Familia out of Mr. BMDO, wouldn't you?

A little Twitter video clip:

https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1568764874330718211

P.S. Lots of guys already in camp. Hungry. Motivated. Driven. Excited.