Reese Kaplan -- Is It Time To Overpay For A Reliever?

Over the weekend we looked at the plethora of injuries facing the Mets before they launch the official 2023 campaign. Everyone knows Edwin Diaz is out for the entire year (with his salary being paid by Major League Baseball since his injury was not incurred in a Mets-related manner). Jose Quintana is facing perhaps a half-year on the shelf after his benign tumor surgery. I'd missed out on the Brandon Nimmo issue which happened after the article was scheduled to publish. Then there are the myriad of others, too.

Right now let's simply focus on one thing. What do you do about the Edwin Diaz situation?

Some folks are advocating not much of anything, turning closing responsibilities over to Adam Ottavino or David Robertson, both of whom have served in that role at times in their long careers. That's frankly not a bad option, but it does weaken your setup squad. Remember, you no longer have a Seth Lugo around to give you quality innings in the 6th, 7th or 8th.

Others are making the case to go out and sign one of the available free agent relievers. We listed them on Friday and the Mets did indeed attend the Zack Britton showcase for scouts (along with 9 other teams). Britton was a formidable closer at one point in his career and has ties to Buck Showalter from their Baltimore days, but the issue here is gambling on health. Since giving up closer duties after the 2017 season he was quite good for the Yankees when available in part of 2018, all of 2019 and the abbreviated 2020.

However, if you look to see what the man has accomplished in 2021 and 2022 it's frankly not very much. He was in 22 games pitching just over 18 innings with a 5.89 ERA for the Bronx Bombers in 2021 and followed that up with just 3 games and less than a full inning pitched in 2022 to the tune of a 13.50 ERA.

For the Mets with just a single lefty in the pen in still-ailing Brooks Raley, the addition of another potentially solid arm in a setup role is not the dumbest idea in the world. However, Britton is still auditioning to get a job and the season starts in less than 2 weeks. That likely means he will begin the year in the minors until he's deemed both healthy enough and conditioned enough to assume regular major league games. It's not ideal with several Mets pitchers currently ailing.

The other option that's been bandied about is making a trade. I did say that the Mets would likely have to overpay if they were to move in that direction, but if you're still trying to have a postseason in 2023, that approach might make more sense than it would seem on the surface.

Right now you could imagine both Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty are completely off the table when it comes to trade possibilities. Ronny Mauricio is close in that regard, but there is concern about his pitch judgment and alarming strikeout totals despite his undeniable home run power. Also, his path to the majors is currently blocked by Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor and likely Brett Baty. That would make him a trade possibility.

Reaching deeper into the minor leagues and you have a couple of high quality prospects in Jett Williams and Kevin Parada. Depending on where they see them playing in the future, they may instead become trade chips if the return from another team is sufficient enough to take that chance. Will they convert Alvarez to DH if he can't up his catching game? If so, then Parada is needed. Williams is a strong hitting shortstop but there is that smiling man with the $341 million contract standing in his way.

The big chip that is almost easy for the Mets to deal away right now is Mark Vientos. Notice that it is Baty getting the reps at third base and with Pete Alonso back for first, that leaves DH as about the only spot for Vientos to play. Like Mauricio, no one is denying his power, but he also is having the same high strikeout issue which could depress his batting average and value. If he has no defensive skills to compensate then maybe moving him as part of a package deal is not a bad thought.

Regarding who should be the traded player coming to the Mets, my two word answer is David Bednar. Now he's not exactly a household name and probably has lots of folks heading to their stat-site du jour to find out who he is and what he has done. Bear in mind he plays for the perennially second tier Pirates, so he's not exactly been in the limelight. Dig deeper, however, and you will see he is exactly the kind of pitcher the Mets could use right now.

The big 28 year old right hander started out his career with the Padres but the last two seasons have been spent in the Steel City. From San Diego his numbers were fugly. However, in 2021 with Bucs he pitched in 61 games with a 3-1 record, 3 saves and a 2.23 ERA. That's not chopped liver.

Last season he was shifted into the closer's role and he responded well. He was in 45 games, saved 19 of them and despite people not knowing him out of uniform, he made the All Star team for the National League. His ERA was a tick higher at 2.69, but after two seasons in a row performing at a sub-3.00 ERA level with an average in 2022 of over 12 strikeouts per 9 IP, he's got intimidating written all over him.

Having been in the majors now for 4 seasons it means his big money day is coming when he approaches free agency. The Pirates with a high-level package of prospects might be inclined to agree that quantity and quality of several newcomers could be cheaper and better than soon overpaying for their 250 pound closer.

For the Mets, it would seem he's a great bridge pitcher as a closer in 2022 subbing for Diaz, then replacing one of the older setup guys in 2024 when Diaz returns. As such, be prepared to spend big to get him.

Right now Bednar earns well under $1 million but next season is arbitration eligible. To get the Pirates to consider making such a trade means making the package fairly irresistible. So let's have at it.

Playing Billy Eppler for a moment, suppose you went to the Pirates and said, "How would you like to have a package of Mark Vientos, Jett Williams, Bryce Montes de Oca, Stephen Nogosek and Joey Lucchesi?"

For the Pirates it would mean a starting pitcher, two relief pitchers, a power hitter and a slightly taller version of Freddie Patek. To get this package would require giving up one relief pitcher.

Now it's a lot to sacrifice to obtain one player you need now, but the gamble here is that prospects are just that until they prove otherwise. Remember Jarred Kelenic? Not everyone who the scouts think are awesome achieve their projected output.

Turn it around from Pittsburgh's perspective. Is that too small a package considering the Mets' burning need for a pitcher right now? Might they insist on Mauricio instead of Vientos? If they did, would you consider pulling the trigger?