With the World Baseball Classic finally ending and the both injured and uninjured players making their way back to their employers. We're all past debating the merits of the "Make MLB more money" tournament that takes place when their personnel are supposed to be prepping for the upcoming season. Instead, let's pretend they've all been in their Florida or Arizona winter training sites all along and let's concentrate on who should or shouldn't be coming north with your favorite team.
For the Mets, some of the decisions are relatively easy. Pete Alonso without an extended contract will be manning first base and no one other than alternate first baseman is upset about that in the least.
At second base new multi millionaire Jeff McNeil will be taking up residence there, though with Brandon Nimmo being injured and hopefully slowly recovering and not rushing back he may get some time in left field with Mark Canha shifting to center field unless they want to see Tommy Pham out there in one of the three outfield positions to cover the short term vacancy out there.
Shortstop is Francisco Lindor. Case closed.
Third base is still a bit of a debate. With Eduardo Escobar off in WBC-land doing his best to show pride for his home country of Venezuela it opened up third base for what folks expected to be a bit of a platoon between rookie Brett Baty and rookie Mark Vientos. Instead it became Brett Baty's job to lose as he started there nearly every day and demonstrated that his bat was more than ready.
Right now Mark Vientos is in nowhere land as he has been since last season. Baty has not been brilliant at third base but then he's not exactly looking to replace Brooks Robinson out there as Escobar is better known for his bat than his glove. Many folks are advocating Baty starting there while others are advocating he spend every day in Syracuse refining his defense. Count me in the former camp but expect him to shiver on his way to NBT Bank Stadium where AAA coffee and junk food awaits him before and after the game.
Catcher duties seem pretty strongly set between newcomer Omar Narvaez and returning defensive whiz Tomas Nido. This decision was made easier by both Francisco Alvarez' defensive struggles and his surprising offensive slump all spring. Alvarez will play teammate to Brett Baty until things turn around, injuries in Queens occur or slumps are of the 2022 season level.
The outfield is set with Mark Canha, Tommy Pham and Starling Marte there for sure. As a fan who has watched the numerous long IL stints suffered by Brandon Nimmo throughout his career. it's smarter to allow Nimmo an extra ten days or so to make sure he's really healthy before rushing back to play in cold weather. Towards that end, I foresee an early season call-up of surprisingly hot spring batter Tim Locastro to be the extra outfielder.
At the DH slot you definitely have Daniel Vogelbach anchoring the left handed side of that position and getting the majority of ABs. The question remains about Darin Ruf who has neither the defensive skills (and position opening) to play the field while he's still recovering from his arthritic wrist injury. So if he can't field and can't hit any rational person this side of Billy Eppler would concede it was a mistake bringing him to the Mets and cutting him loose.
Since this regime is not run by the Wilpons it is possible to see that happen. Then the right handed DH duties could be handled by Mark Canha, Tommy Pham or Eduardo Escobar (if they choose to let Brett Baty come north). Mets fans, however, are more accustomed to lingering incompetence than admitting mistakes, so everyone is in a wait and see situation. I'm betting he comes north but is on an extremely short leash.
Luis Guillorme will be part of the team heading to Citifield but expect the club instead to go heavier on pitching early in the season with the numerous injuries they're facing both in the starting rotation and in the bullpen.
On the starting pitching side some have predicted they go with a six-man rotation early in the season. Those members would include Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco and recovering Kodai Senga. The spare pieces would be the tandem of Tylor Megill and David Peterson while they await the recovery of surgically repaired Jose Quintana. I don't see it.
Out in the bullpen you have the season-long loss of Edwin Diaz which has not yet been addressed. If they are not bringing in anyone new to camp, then expect them to use the two 60-day IL slots for Diaz and Quintana to open up 40-man roster positions for some non-roster players. So the bullpen prediction would include Adam Ottavino, David Robertson, Brooks Raley and Drew Smith for sure.
The next likely group would include Stephen Nogosek (out of options) and Elieser Hernandez (not for anything he's done). So the final two slots could go in any direction at all, but I'm predicting veterans Tommy Hunter and John Curtiss.
So, to recap, the roster prediction is:
- Pete Alonso
- Jeff McNeil
- Francisco Lindor
- Eduardo Escobar
- Omar Narvaez
- Mark Canha
- Tommy Pham
- Starling Marte
- Daniel Vogelbach
- Darin Ruf
- Luis Guillorme
- Tim Locastro
- Tomas Nido
- Max Scherzer
- Justin Verlander
- Carlos Carrasco
- Kodai Senga
- David Peterson
- David Robertson
- Adam Ottavino
- Brooks Raley
- Drew Smith
- Stephen Nogosek
- Elieser Hernandez
- Tommy Hunter
- John Curtiss
- Edwin Diaz IL
- Jose Quintana IL
- Brandon Nimmo IL
- Brett Baty AAA
- Mark Vientos AAA
- Francisco Alvarez AAA
- Ronny Mauricio AAA
What do you all think?
Nimmo says he will be ready. I would not be surprised to see Vientos sent down, but it wouldn’t be for long. He’s played so much this spring, that hump he needs to get over is 80% cleared. He needs to try to cut the Ks.
ReplyDeletewhy a 6 man rotation early, if there are days off?
Alvarez has earned a ticket to Syracuse. He looks like a mid year ascension to me. Narvaez May be Son of McCann.
Everyone loved the WBC…except Mets fans, who lost their difference maker, Patella Eddie. I hope Pete and Jeff aren’t rusty…they didn’t play much.
The average age of Verlander, Max, Pham, and Ruf is almost 38. What could possibly go wrong?
ReplyDeleteBrad Johnson noted the following about Baty: Baty. is batting .351/.478/.459 in 44 plate appearances. Of modest concern, he’s hit for extra bases just twice out of 13 hits. He also has a 27.27 percent strikeout rate.
ReplyDeleteBaty doesn’t profile for the superstar ceilings enjoyed by Cards’ Walker and Yanks’ Volpe. His ground ball-oriented swing limits his offensive potential. There’s only so much he can do to lift the ball without entirely reworking his mechanics. Despite this shortcoming and inconsistent defense, Baty profiles as a high-probability, above-average regular.
His main competition, Eduardo Escobar, is batting .125/.222/.347 in 16 spring at bats. He also went 1-for-10 with a home run at the World Baseball Classic.
COULD ESCOBAR BE HITTING AN AGE SPEED BUMP? Just 3 for 26 this spring.
Mine would be:
ReplyDelete1B - Alonso Vientos
2B - McNeil Guillorme
SS - Lindor Escobar
3B - Baty Escobar
c - Nido Navaraez
OF - Marte Cahna Locastro Pham Vientos
Why is it that we think Vientos has value while the Mets apparently do not? Perhaps the goal is to limit his MLB exposure to retain his trade value.
ReplyDeleteReese, I disagree on Mets’ Vientos interest. Having him get almost 60 plate appearances is a true sign of interest, or to build value for a trade. Oddly, the criticized Vientos defense has translated into zero errors this spring. If Escobar is in decline (3 for 26, too early to draw conclusions), a Baty/Vientos 3B platoon might soon be the ticket.
ReplyDeleteExcellent analysis, Reese. One name not on your list puzzles me.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand at all why they claimed Dennis Santana off waivers. He's got an awful track record for his career, is on the 40, and is out of options.
He's barely pitched in ST, and all the guys on your list are more deserving, though some will have to go upstate if they can be optioned. Nogo has no options, and should stay. Tommy Hunter is on a minors deal, and will probably opt out if not on the 40.
So what possible reason is there for keeping Santana? Maybe he'll be DFA'd, and sent upstate if unclaimed. I really can't think of any purpose he serves, or any reason he's here.
I've said this before, and I'll say it again ---Vientos needs to be playing EVERY day, preferably at 1B, and there's no way he can get that playing time in Queens. 'Cuse is the only place for him right now.
ReplyDeleteIf he shows that he can play an adequate 1B or OF, while continuing to hit for power, that will increase his trade value if we have no spot for him here.
I don't think Baty goes to AAA. He will be the starter at 3B. He looked that good in the spring and Escobar didn't.
ReplyDeleteI think Vientos does go to AAA, but not for long. Ruf prolonged his poor hitting this spring, which was the worst thing he could have done for his chances. Even a small streak would have bought him time. If the Mets don't have the guts to cut him now, they will be the end of April, which is Vientos' chance to get in the lineup.
I do think that the Mets will use a 6-man rotation, because the Quintana injury probably spooked them. The Mets can't afford to lose another starter, so they will go with a very cautious approach until Scherzer or Verlander complains.
Smarter.
ReplyDelete1B Alonso/Vientos
2B McNeil/Guillorme
SS Lindor/Mauricio
3B Baty/Vientos
LF Locastro/Almonte
CF Nimmo/Marte
RF Marte/DJ Stewart
C Nido/Narváez
DH Mauricio
SP Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Carrasco, Peterson, Drew Smith
RP Megill, Raley, Reyes, Muckenhirn, Ottavino, Robertson, Hunter
Reasoning For:
With three deserving younger first time to the bigs players Baty, Vientos and Mauricio, they cover most aptly third base in a starting role, and then first base, second, shortstop, and third in a backup role. These three younger players mentioned above have all proven themselves well this ST, and clearly provide the better options than what else is here to choose from.
Brandon Nimmo will be ready and himself again come Opening Day. Tim Locastro impressed me all around with solid offensive ST numbers. He has more upside than Mark Canha for left field heading into Opening Day. There is always risk with any new player personnel move, but Locastro to me with Almonte or DJ Stewart behind him, should provide enough capability for this change. And finally, Starling Marte a proven veteran player, is the Opening Day starting right fielder supreme.
The 2022 outfield was good, but not great really especially after the Starling Marte injury. It did need revision heading into the 2023 season. This does that.
At the DH, let's be perfectly honest here, no one looked better batting at this spot then Ronnie Mauricio. No one. Mauricio to me is another George Foster pure power batter in the making. He's ready now Steve. He also backs up Francisco Lindor at shortstop, and lets Lindor take a breather from short, or even have Lindor take the DH some games with Mauricio playing short for him. Mauricio could backup both short and third base really. And Vientos third and first when needed to.
At the catcher position, it is clearly Tomas Nidos and his new outstanding batting approach that he has working now beautifully. Kudos out to Tomas.
My point here is that with Mark Vientos and Ronnie Mauricio both making the Opening Day roster, the NY Mets have more good positional options than they had in 2022. And this is a very good thing to have on a roster.
At starting pitcher, I definitely go with the six man rotation I mentioned above. The first two starters will need breaks to rest due to age. This will prove vital across a full season's schedule. This six man rotation provides for it. Right now, I have Drew Smith as the sixth starter ahead of Tyler Megill. Both are about the same age, but I think Drew Smith is more ready for this new challenge and deserved of it.
On Cocooning
ReplyDeleteEduardo Escobar and Mark Canha are good players that we all know here. They won't embarrass the team and have proven decent skills. But simply put here, they are not great players and don't normally hit for even a higher average.
If a team wants to truly be the best team, then they need to bring into their starting lineup the best players that they possibly can.
Sometimes a team has to breakout of their well established warm cuddly cocoon and actually take a player personnel chance. One which has "backup-ability" factored in, so that if it turns out not to be what they had initially thought it would be there is an escape hatch. True.
The Mets do need to put talent over "the cocoon" is what I am trying to say here. Senga was such a ballsy type player personnel move this off season, and I commend the Mets for making this move. I think Kodai will prove his worth right away. But hanging onto to too many older starting players that are perhaps too cocooned in, seldom buys that team a Championship ring I have noticed.
That's why I like the idea of not only Brett Baty starting at third base, but then too Mark Vientos, Tim Locastro, and Ronnie Mauricio making the Opening Day roster in 2023 for these Mets.
Sometimes it's these slight risks that make a team a true Championship one. Call them educated risks if you want to.
Excellent analysis, Reese...
ReplyDeleteGood teams and baseball are valid..
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