The season has begun and as usual it is time for predictions about how individual players and the team overall will do. Going into the season there are some surprises -- the injuries (Edwin Diaz, Jose Quintana, Bryce Montes de Oca, Elieser Hernandez and Sam Coonrod). Then there are the demotions -- Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. Then there is the release of Darin Ruf.
Going into the 2023 full season the Mets should line up accordingly:
- 1B Pete Alonso
- 2B Jeff McNeil
- SS Francisco Lindor
- 3B Eduardo Escobar
- C Omar Narvaez
- LF Mark Canha
- CF Brandon Nimmo
- RF Starling Marte
- DH Daniel Vogelbach
- IF Luis Guillorme
- OF Tommy Pham
- OF Tim Locastro
- C Tomas Nido
- SP Max Scherzer
- SP Justin Verlander
- SP Kodai Senga
- SP Carlos Carrasco
- SP David Peterson
- RP David Robertson
- RP Adam Ottavino
- RP Brooks Raley
- RP Drew Smith
- RP Tommy Hunter
- RP John Curtiss
- RP Stephen Nogosek
- RP Dennis Santana
At first glance the team looks pretty solid with a couple of big ifs. If the current bullpen crew which contains one returning stud in Ottavino, one returning young veteran in Smith and another in Nogosek can complement the newcomers like Robertson, Raley and Santana. Then you have a few non-roster types who vaulted themselves into Queens in veterans Hunter and Curtiss. Without the best closer in the game, the bullpen looks pretty solid but not nearly as shutdown-ready as they would have been had there not been an overzealous WBC celebration in Puerto Rico.
The starting rotation is first rate. Peterson subbing for Quintana isn't all that different in capability. Everyone knows what the two multiple Cy Young Award winners can do. Carrasco has been far more good than bad. The only question mark is how Senga's health and adjustment to the ball will play as his rookie American season progresses.
The bench is weak. There is no other way to say it. Guillorme is a better backup infielder than most clubs have. The same can be said for Nido at catcher. However the track record overall for Tim Locastro is not that good and it's been quite awhile since Tommy Pham was considered a stronger offensive player. As the season progresses it's reasonable to expect the number of pitchers to drop to 12 and the bench to swell to 5. Who that 5th player will be may be someone from Syracuse or a DFA'd player picked up from another team.
The outfield functionally is strong. Mark Canha performed better last year in terms of working the count and batting average than he had in his past, though his power was down a bit. Nimmo just got a long term contract extension and if he stays healthy he's a solid player who is very good but likely not quite All Star level. Marte is likely the best acquisition made during the Cohen era and if not for injury last year he would have set some pretty high water metrics in power, speed and batting average. As it is he finished an abbreviated season with a 3.9 WAR.
The infield is pretty amazing. Everyone knows what Pete Alonso can do. His big payday is coming shortly for sure. Jeff McNeil already got his (and a batting title to boot). Francisco Lindor showed in 2022 what he was capable of doing and appears to be improving to the point where he might cross 30 HRs and 30 SBs this upcoming season. The two unknowns are which Eduardo Escobar will be on display in 2023 -- the slumper or the flaming hot September version. Narvaez is coming off a horrible season but his career numbers show a batting average of .258 which is very nearly All Star level at this particular position. He was brought here both to form a natural lefty/righty platoon with steadily improving Nido and to help mentor Francisco Alvarez when he ascends again from AAA.
So the overall impression of the team is quite good but the depth is highly questionable. No one is doing cartwheels that Pham is likely replacing Ruf as the right handed half of the DH position. Most everyone outside of Billy Eppler's office is still scratching their heads about the Baty and Vientos demotions. Still, they provide some backup bats if needed due to injury or poor performances by the current regulars.
It would seem that last year's squad won 101 games while going into a major funk at the end of the year, with only part time contributions from Jacob deGrom (and not at his normally stellar level), the slump of Esocbar, long IL stints from many players and virtually nothing out of the DH position. This club theoretically could perform as well given health of the players on the roster if Escobar stays hotter than colder and if the RH side of the DH position can contribute anything at all. However, one injury to a key player could torpedo postseason dreams and a club without sufficient reinforcements is climbing a balsa wood ladder to the top.
Prediction -- 98-64, second place behind the Braves.
98 wins is a good team,a very good team!
ReplyDeleteAn early breakdown if pitching will surely make this a challenging season
ReplyDeleteHello all,
ReplyDeleteFor the money spend, this is a bad team. Lots of overpaid players that won't age well. Verlander, the replacement for deGrom is already replacing him on the DL. They don't call this team the Amazins for nothing.
I'm not "scratching my head" over the "demotions" of Baty, Vientos and Alvarez". I refer to them as "assignments". All of them need and deserve to be playing everyday, and there's no way they could do that in Flushing. By sharpening their skills, particularly the D, they should be ready for callup if needed.
ReplyDeleteSenga may not be ready for a full-year schedule of every-5th-day pitching, but that can be managed by using Peterson and Megill to give him extra days off. And by mid-season we should be adding Q to the rotation.
My only concern re: the rotation as of now is Verlander. If his injury is as minor as he thinks it is, we're OK with him missing a turn or 2. If it's more serious, that would concern me.
If he's OK, I still look for 103+ Ws. If not, I'll cut back to your 98. But that's as low as I go. 😝
One other point--- If he stays as healthy as he did last year, Nimmo definitely IS an All-Star.
Syracuse.plays 2nite
DeleteWhose starting now that McGill is gone.
ReplyDeleteBill gets his meds from a Flushing apothecary :).
ReplyDelete103 wins WITHOUT EDWIN? He was uber-brilliant in 2021 and that got them to 101. The season is 6 months long, subject to swoons permitted by a weaker bullpen that just did not happen last year.
Robertson is good, but he will give up twice as many runs as Edwin
Something wrong here,the de facto DH,Pham, is batting 8th. Isn’t the DH supposed to be a hitter?
ReplyDeleteTony Dibrell, another recovered TJS alumnus, is the opening day starter for Syracuse. Big year for Mr. Dibs, a former 4th rounder.
ReplyDeleteMr. Dibs did an impression of Jake tonight. 3.2 IP, 6 h, 5 ER.
DeletePham to me has suddenly gone into age decline until he proves otherwise. He just hasn't hit a lick all spring.
ReplyDeleteBill, unless it is nothing, I would not return Verlander until May 1. Cold weather and a side pull? Don't like that combo.
ReplyDeleteJV is taking a very sensible approach, not the "I'm macho. I'll pitch unless my arm falls off" that Jake followed. If he feels he's ready, I trust his judgment.
DeleteWith all the money spent it essentially the same team which I can't see repeating 101 wins.
ReplyDeletePham is bad
Escobar is bad
They should have signed/traded for a LF and use cahna as rh/dh and rotational OF
Relying on 40 yr old pitchers is insane
Dibs wishes he could do an impression of Jake’s salary.
ReplyDelete