Tom Brennan - Minors Performance Can Be Misleading; Pepitone RIP

 

 

Jett Williams (above left) rightfully is highly ranked

Lots of people here rooted for former Mets prospect Jake Mangum.  

Then the Mets acquired a player from Miami, and the player to be named later was Jake Mangum.  Some readers were bummed.

Jake hit .306 in 288 at bats in the high minors for the Mets last year and flashed some dandy leather and quickness.

So, I wondered where he is ranked in the Marlins MLB Top 30 list.   I figured he was top 20, easy.

He was just 2 (singles, no walks) for 10 in spring Marlins games thru Sunday, if you were wondering. And:

He's not on the Top 30 list at all.  Hmmm.

So, I looked at a Prospects 1500 list.  Where did he fall in their top 50 Marlins prospects?

Nowhere.  Hmmm.  Not on their Top 50, even after doing that??

Then I thought about Mets prospects.  

Where do some of my faves get ranked by Prospects 1500?

2B Wyatt Young?  The fireplug is 21st ranked by P-1500; I have him higher, but I can live with that ranking. For now, anyway.

RP Bryce Montes de Oca? 30th?  I'm happy he is in the top 30, but that seems awfully conservative to me, if he was healthy. Just call me a contrarian.  RP Eric Orze is 20th, which I am OK with, but Bryce was BETTER than Orze in 2022, yet was 10 slots lower.  (FYI - I had both in my top 20).  

Remember, I've written before that FanGraphs, Steamers, and Baseball Reference all have De Oca in 2023 having a solid MLB rookie year. As such, having him at # 30 is far too low.

Speedster Omar De Los Santos? # 31.  His huge speed and good power are damaged by his high K rate. # 31 seems fair.  Fix the problem or you may fall to # 50, like someone else below has.

Jose Peroza at # 38?  The way he hit tremendously in the 2nd half of 2022, that rank seems overly conservative.  But maybe they're right and I'm wrong.  Up to Jose to prove me right.  I had him far higher. (But zero spring ABs for Jose Peroza, while veteran Jose PerAza was 4 for 24 through Sunday with a HR).

Peroza’s 2022 teammate IF William Lugo is at their # 49.  He had a good offensive year at age 19, so I had him higher at 44, but ready to jump him into mt Top 30 quickly in 2023 (first two spring 2023 ABs, a HR and single…hmmm).

Junior Tilien?  Didn't even make the list, despite a notable year at age 19 that incuded a 3 homer game.  Count me surprised that he is not on the list.

Nick Meyer and his good catching glove?  They have him at # 43.  Can't disagree.  His bat is too weak.

And Jaylen Palmer, ranked in the mid teens last year?  He fans like a wind turbine in a hurricane, with 137 in 102 games in Brooklyn last year, which caused this athletic infielder to slip all the way to 50th on the Prospects 1500 list.

Yet, he made 50th, while Jake Mangum did not make # 50 for the Marlins. Count me mystified.

Lastly, lefty Josh Walker was 40th despite 51 Ks in 32 minor league innings last year.  I'd bump him up at least 10 slots, given that K rate. (3 spring outings, 3 innings, 1 hit (HR) and 3 walks allowed.)

Kevin Kendall, another Wyatt-sized IF who might be this season’s Mets minors Wyatt Young, started the spring 1 for 2 and a walk.

On another angle, Prospects 1500 ranks players in Tiers 1-5, with 1 and 2 described as follows:

Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years

Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Prospect 1500 has Alvarez and Baty at Tier 1, and Mauricio, Parada, Ramirez, Jett, Tidwell, Hamel and Vientos at Tier 2 as their # 3 thru # 9 Mets prospects.  

Nine guys is darned good for Tiers 1 and 2.  

And my guess is at least two of this year's Tier 2 players will be Tier 1 next year.

I like our prospects.  Period. 

INJURIES:

Quintana could miss 3 months, and Bryce Montes de Oca probably won’t throw for 3 weeks (non-ligament, dodged a bullet). 

We need 3 day injuries, instead. When we hope for length out of our pitchers, it’s not lengthy indies we want.

JOE PEPITONE DEAD AT 82: 

Namath was Broadway Joe, Pepitone was Bronx Way Joe. 

I liked Joe, a kid from Brooklyn, who I recall as the first MLB long haired player. He had style. He exuded “New York”. He loved that Yankee porch. Good power, few Ks. 

His fans loved him.

His very solid, multi-Gold Glove career ended too soon at age 32.

RIP, Joe.