Reese Kaplan -- What About a Mid Season Ohtani Trade?

Continuing on the "Bring us Shoei Ohtani" theme, some folks have started floating trade proposals to deliver the man east from west.  Bringing in this level of player would certainly revive interest in the middle-of-the-pack team and would potentially give them some missing links in order to make a run at the pennant for the second half of 2023.  The problem, of course, is what it would cost to do so and the uncertainty surrounding a mid season trade that could still end up losing the man in free agency.

Another website yesterday floated the idea that a trade of Ohtani could be made with some heavy names from the prospect pool NOT including Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez nor Mark Vientos (remember him???)

They suggested that the Angels would put out a very steep demand for their two-way star and the Mets do have some other names who are highly attractive but not yet on the cusp of Citifield.  They thought a deal that included Ronny Mauricio, Alex Ramirez, Jett Williams, Luis Guillorme and another minor leaguer might get it done.  

Personally, my first reaction upon reading that list of players was "No f-cking way!" but that was less based upon the quality of who they would be sacrificing in this trade and more about the fact he could be the second coming of Javy Baez.  Just because you add a significant piece in the hope of signing him for a long term deal doesn't necessarily mean it would happen.  That deal would in effect be five players for a half season of Ohtani and first dibs on bidding for him going into free agency, but it is NOT a guarantee he wouldn't want to test the waters to see what he's really worth.  

Instead, if you assumed the Angels were willing to make any kind of mid-season deal for Ohtani, they're really looking to maximize a return over the compensation they would otherwise get for a player with a qualifying offer extended after the season ends.  Obviously Ronny Mauricio alone would amount to much more than a random draft pick.  Then add in the others and you would be doing a much higher level of the ill-fated Darin Ruf deal all over again.

The other approach to make is to keep your prospect pool intact and rely upon bidding with dollars alone to bring in the best of the best in free agency.  The risk here is that another team might trade for him and hitch him to a pre-free-agency contract extension and you'd never get the opportunity to enter competitive bidding.  The upside is that your prospect pool still is available should you need to make a deal or two in place of Ohtani if he is unavailable in free agency. 

It is indeed possible the Mets could offer up a deal for Ohtani that the Angels might want, but that particular package seems ill advised.  First of all, Ronny Mauricio learning to play second base opens up a road for his major league future as Jeff McNeil could move into left field after Mark Canha's contract expires.  Therefore the invisible man, Mark Vientos, with no position to play, would be a better head for this package.

As far as Ramirez goes, he would be an unwelcome but forcibly acceptable inclusion in this list.  His numbers thus far in the minors suggest a Starling Marte type with moderate power and moderate batting average.  His base running speed is highly impressive.  The only reason I'd bite on him leaving is because he hasn't progressed very far yet and could be much better or much worse as he makes the climb to the majors.

Oddly, Jett Williams is the one for whom I am highly uncertain.  His early showing in the minors has been one of an unintimidated hitter, but with Francisco Lindor slated to play shortstop, Brett Baty playing 3rd, and either Jeff McNeil or Ronny Mauricio playing 2nd there is really no room for him.  His diminutive size at 5'6" suggests his game is going to be all about defense and speed, not power.  

The other no-place-play hot prospect the Mets have is catcher Kevin Parada.  If indeed they are committed to Francisco Alvarez as the backstop of the future, then this inclusion as part of a flashy quartet of prospects would be more than enough to offer up in trade.  

If the Angels say no, then it wasn't meant to be and you get to keep them all.  If they say yes, then you paid a steep price but with not irreplaceable players to get first crack at not just the 2023 pennant but at the long term security of inking Ohtani before anyone else has the chance.  

Still, my preference overall would be to keep the prospects for now and simply go after Ohtani with Steve Cohen's deep pockets.