The Daily Mets Minor League Update - June 29th

 

Morning.

 

Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) 

The Mets have one early All-Star. Head performance coach Dustin Clarke will be part of the National League staff in Seattle. 

 

Ernest Dove (@ernestdove) 

Plus during the Brodie/Jeff era they turned the 2 entire drafts into 6 picks.......6......... with the rest of the 2 drafts being filled with underslot players. Drafts are always a crap shoot but going all in on 6 total players is a huge risk. 

 

Baseball In General: 

John Mincone @JMincone 

Young pitchers, keep in mind: 

No one cares how hard you throw ball four. 

 

CLICK HERE -

Former Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer reaches settlement with The Athletic, reporter in defamation case 

  Former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Trevor Bauer has reached a settlement in his defamation case against The Athletic and one of its former reporters over an article written about a restraining order filed against the former MLB pitcher in 2021. 

A source with knowledge of the matter told Fox News Digital on Wednesday that the settlement resolves any legal action brought against The Athletic and its former reporter, Molly Knight, who tweeted about the story and Bauer at the time of its publication. 

 

Tranactions:

 

None reported to me today. 

 

Player Of The Day - 

Right now, the Mets have two top shelf starter prospects… the B-Mets RHP Christian Scott, and this guy. 

Cyclones 6-9 RHP Tyler Stuart tossed seven one run innings last night, with one whiff. This lowered his seasonal stat line in Brooklyn to: 13-starts, 3-0, 1.42, 1.06, 69.2-IP, 79-K. 

13 starts is usually passing the average amount of starts it takes to jump a level. The only reason I can think of is the fact that the Binghamton current rotation is more than filled up, what with the recent additions of Landon Marceaux and Coleman Crow, Add to this Dom Hamel, Scott, David Griffin, Sammy Tavarez, and Junior Santos and… well, you get the crowded picture. 

It would truly bother me if the Mets were impeding the progress of a real pitching talent because a rotation was filled with less talented pitchers. 

 

Syr:

Notables -

 1B Mark Vientos - 0-2, .327, 1.087-OPS

LF Ronny Mauricio - 0-4, .307, .863-OPS

CF Rafael Ortega - 1-3, .321, .942-OPS

 

BMets -

 

Notables - 

3B Jose Peroza- 0-3, R, .289, .883-OPS

 

Cyclones:

 

Notables - 

C Kevin Parada - 1-4, .268, .795-OPS 

 

St. Lucie: 

1B Yeral Martinez - 2-4, R, 6^th double

 

Notables - 

CF Wilfredo Lara - 2-4, R, 9^TH HR, RBI, ,251, .596-OPS

(this 19 year was an unsuccessful DSL hitter prior to this season. Now, he leads the team in homers after 167 at-bats. The Mets may be developing a centerfield prospect to replace the failing Alex Ramirez) 

SS Jett Williams - 0-4, .228, .756-OPS

  

FCL:.

 

Another day off for a team that needs to play more often than they do.

 

DSL:

 

B Team - 

SS Leyderman Ruiz - 2-4, 2-R, .258, .697-OPS

 

Notables - 

SS Branny De Oleo - 0-3, .345, .910-OPS

C Jose Aular- 0-3, ,385, 1.067-OPS

RF Jostyn Almonte - 2-4, R, 2^ND HR, .362,1.006-OPS

 

O Team - 

LF Enderson Asencio - 2-3, 4^th double

RHSP Franciso Mercado - 2-OP, 0-R, 0.00

RHRP Elwis Mijares - 2.2-IP, 0-R, 4-K, 2.20

RHRP Edgardo Castro - 2-IP, 0-R, 3-K, 0.00

(Castro is off to a great starts: 7-G, 10.1-IP, 0.00) 

 

Notables -

SS Chrisopher Larez - 0-0, .254, .757-OPS

DH/C Julio Zayas - 1-4, R, .305, .940-OPS 

 

Alumni:

 

                                                PC - Mack

Toby (@EpplerToKBO) 

2007 David Wright

113 runs scored, 196 hits, 42 doubles, 30 hrs, 107 RBIs, 34 SB

.325/.416/.543

8.4 fWAR (1st in NL and 2nd in MLB)

The fact that he didn’t win the MVP, let alone finish 4th, was insane

Reese Kaplan -- It's Time for the Seaver Trade Again (Times Two)

Well, anyone who had the time and nothing else going on in their lives on Wednesday prior to the Mets vs. Brewers game had the opportunity to see the big owner of the New York Mets take up a reasonably significant amount of time saying a whole lot of nuttin'.  

Granted, he's not the one swinging the bat nor throwing from the mound but he is the one who has entrusted his baseball management team to figure out which players can do those things effectively.  It would appear it is not just the on-field personnel who are at fault here, but also the judgment of supposed game professionals who did their own version of a Darin Ruf transaction.

No, I wasn't expecting Steve Cohen to take the microphone and scream at the top of his lungs a'la Steinbrenner.  Nor did I expect him to take the blame personally for what others have failed to do.  However, it would have been reasonable for him to lay down the law calmly but firmly about accountability for one's actions.  

Firing a manager or a GM is not instantly going to make Francisco Lindor's batting average jump by 50 points nor will it lower pitchers' ERAs by 2 full runs.  It will send the signal that it's a 24X7 universe of performance with corrective actions needing to be taken rather than simply waiting for things to somehow magically get better.

Towards that end, I was one of the first to advocate the idea of putting the Mets starting pitching up for grabs.  Since then others have quietly started whispering and nudging that finishing in the second division is just as likely without Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander as it is with them.  

The difference here, of course, is that both are welcome to depart at year's end for little more than a draft pick if QOs were indeed offered.  Now at mid year you could get people from other clubs who are desperately in need of pitching reinforcement that is less of a crap shoot than a supplemental draft pick.

The big difference between this type of prospective transaction is the salary involved.  Steve Cohen did say one thing today that resonated with me and motivated this writing.  He said as far as he's concerned, the money is already spent so it didn't make him cringe to pay down Eduardo Escobar’s salary to increase the return of moderately well regarded AA pitchers, which is more than they would have gotten had he simply left as a free agent for 2024.

Now think about the $80 million plus due to Scherzer and Verlander.  While both are underperforming by their Cooperstown-bound pitching metrics, you can't take away their accomplishments nor ability.  We have seen games from both hurlers in which the opposing teams were rendered impotent to fight off the pitches they were throwing.  The multi Cy Young track records are indeed worth a lot and the returns should be substantial.

For Max Scherzer the deal is a little easier, as he has already stated he would waive his no-trade contract language to get moved elsewhere.  That being said, are the Mets building in that 3-5 year time frame for contention or are they all-in as they intended in 2023 only to have it blow up in their faces?  

Reverse the thinking for a minute and suppose that a top notch pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani was made available in trade right now and the Mets were in an acquiring mindset instead of the selling one they should embrace.  Let's say it was Gerritt Cole or Corbin Burnes or Sandy Alcantara who was offered up for the right trade price.  Wouldn't you as the Mets be ponying up established players and/or top prospects to land someone with that kind of talent?  

So here we have Max Scherzer who at age 38 is 104 games OVER .500 with a career ERA of just 3.13 (which includes his subpar 2023).  Wouldn't he be worth a king's ransom of talent in return?  Think now about the trade acquisitions if the Mets again paid down the already committed salary.

Can you say, "Wow!"?

Then we have the case of Justin Verlander.  He's a tad older than Scherzer but also sports a record 109 games over .500 with a career ERA of just 3.26.  He would net just about the same price in return.  

So is your plan for 2024 going to be repeating the same ineffective roster of 2023 or to build on a strong foundation made with effective midyear trades that can help fill in the gaps in the AA, AAA and MLB rosters?  For me, it would be better to make these difficult deals now than it would to lose both for draft picks or retain them even older at still higher salaries.

But hey, what do I know about winning?  I'm not a highly paid baseball professional like the Mets employ.  That's sure worked out well, huh?

Draft News

CLICK ON - 2023 MLB Draft Preview: First Basemen 

 Bryce Eldridge, James Madison HS (VA.) — Just to paint a picture of how volatile the first base group is this year, the top player at the position is being looked at on the mound, just as much as he is at the plate. There’s a lot to like in Eldridge, as I will admit he’s my favorite prospect in the draft when it comes to reasonable guys the Braves could take in their range at 24. Eldridge possesses incredible size for a high school prospect at 6’7, 223 pounds and has good pop from the left side of the plate. He has also increased his feel for the bat in his senior year of high school. Defensively, he’s solid around the bag, but given the fact he possesses a plus arm — which attributes to his 96-MPH fastball off the mound — there’s a good chance whichever team takes him in the draft would want to see what he can do in the outfield before limiting his arm to first base. 

 

TigerNet.com (@ClemsonTigerNet) 

https://t.co/N6WxZ5HT14  bolstered its top prospects ranking to 250 recently ahead of next month's MLB draft and there are some notable names regarding 

https://t.co/foQX3YrBbH  

 

MLB Draft Room (@MLBDraftRoom) 

Enrique Bradfield…the name that comes to mind quickly is the “one dog”… 

Lance Johnson 

 

CLICK ON - College World Series 2023 sets record CWS viewership on ESPN: What made this year special? 

  

CLICK ON - 2023 MLB Draft Preview: Second Basemen 

Quinn McDaniel - 

McDaniel has been incredible for the University of Maine in his career, but has taken that to new heights as a senior with a .513 on base percentage and 1.201 OPS. McDaniel has questions surrounding his ability to stick on the infield, though he has the range to make a play at it in professional ball or move to center field. McDaniel isn’t incredibly strong, but has good enough power where as long as he hits it won’t hamper his development. Think of him as a supercharged version of current Braves utility prospect Cody Milligan, with that ability to grind deep into at bats and cause trouble once he reaches base. McDaniel hasn’t faced good competition in college, and the activity and length of his swing gives scouts pause as to how he will handle velocity at the professional level. 

 

CLICK ON -  

https://www.batterypower.com/2023/6/27/23773951/2023-mlb-draft-preview-third-baseman  

Brock Wilken 

Wilken has plus power seeing as he has hit 31 home runs this season, but he also carries some strikeout concerns. The 6 ’4 slugger only has a strikeout rate of 26 percent this season, but when you dig a little deeper there is a bit of a red flag when it comes to him facing top level competition. In eight games against Clemson, Alabama and LSU this season he has racked up 14 strikeouts in 33 at bats. It is of course an extremely small sample size, but it is a strikeout rate of 42 percent and an area that we should be paying some attention to. On the flip side though, despite being a 6 ‘4 hitter which traditionally lends itself to longer swings and a lot of moving parts, Wilken is extremely quiet in his stance and swing which should help him transition to the pro game. 

 

CLICK ON - 2023 MLB Mock Draft: LSU teammates, College World Series champions Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes go No. 1 and 2  

Pick: OF Dylan Crews, LSU ($9,721,000 slot value) (CBS Sports top 30 rank: No. 1) 

There has been speculation the Pirates could opt for righty Paul Skenes, Crews' teammate at LSU, given his electric showing at the College World Series. That seems like outside noise more than something the Pirates are seriously considering, however. They prefer hitters at the top of the draft and, all things being equal, you should take the hitter over the pitcher because pitchers carry so much inherent injury risk. 

If the Pirates pivot away from Crews, it's likely they will take a different hitter and sign him to a below slot bonus so they can use the savings on other players later in the draft. High school outfielder Max Clark is a prime candidate. The minimum bonus is 75% of slot, so that's $7,290,750 for the No. 1 pick. For Clark (or any player), taking the minimum bonus at No. 1 would be more lucrative than taking slot at No. 5 ($7,139,700), and it would leave the Pirates more than $2.5 million in savings to use elsewhere. Two weeks before the draft, Crews is not a lock to go No. 1. It's just the most likely outcome.

 

Kendall Rogers @KendallRogers 

TRANSFER NEWS: TCU Baseball  has landed a massive get out of the portal as former Wichita State two-way standout Payton Tolle is headed to Fort Worth play for the Frogs, D1 baseball  has learned. Tolle struck out 97 in 85.2 IP and hit .311 w/ 13 HRs, 50 RBIs in '23. 

 

Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogers) 

TRANSFER NEWS: 

Vols Baseball sophomore RHP Chase Burns has officially entered the Transfer Portal, D1baseball has learned. Burns struck out 114 in 72 innings for the #Vols this season. He’s the most high-profile player in the portal. 

 

Ben Badler (@BenBadler) t 

2023 All-American  teams are out. 

Walker Jenkins, Noble Meyer, Blake Mitchell and more.

 

Full 1st and 2nd teams CLICK HERE: https://t.co/mssjr76IW5 

The Daily Mets Minor League Update - June 28th

Morning.

 

SNY (@SNYtv) 

When Eduardo Escobar's teammates were helping him prepare for his citizenship test, he was asked who the first president was. 

"Ron Washington" 

 

Tranactions: 

OF Joe Suozzi – placed on IL

OF Jaylen Palmer – transferred to AA Binghamton

RHP Sammy Tavarez – activated from the DL

RHP Landon Marceaux – placed on the DL

RHP Dedniel Núñez – transferred  to AA Binghamton

RHP Justin Courtney - has been released

RHP Alex Valverde placed on the DL

RHP Reed Garrett optioned to Syracuse

RHP Vinny Nittoli optioned from New York

LHP Josh Walker optioned from New York

 

Player Of The Day - 

B-Mets RHSP Christian Scott seems to be making the transition from a backend rotation prospect to the mid-range. 

Last night, he tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out six, and lowering his AA ERA to 1.37. 

His combined A+/AA stats this year are now 10-ST, 4-1, 2.18, 0.77, 45.1-IP, 53-K. 

I still project him as a mid-season 2024 addition to the Mets rotation.

 

Syr: 

CF Rafael Ortega - 2-5, 2-R, RBI, .320, .953-OPS

SS Jonathan Araux - 2-5, 2-RBI, .258, 790-OPS

2B Luke Ritter - 2-4, R, 1^st double

3B Nick Meyer - 2-3, 2-R, 2-HR (4),2-RBI

LHRP Zach Muckenhirm - 2-IP, 0-5, 3-K, 0.88

RHRP Eric Orze - 2.0-IP, 0-R, 3-K

 

Notables - 

1B Mark Vientos - 2-4, 14^th double, RBI, ,331,1.092-OPS

LF Ronny Mauricio - did not play

 

NOTE 1 -

 C Tomas Nido is hitting .174

 

NOTE 2 - 

RHRP Mike Vasil has another dismal AAA outing last night: 3-IP, 4-ER, 6-H, 3-BB, ON 66 pitches, only 36 strikes. His AAA ERA is now 10.24. 

The Mets should consider either letting him miss a turn so he can mentally reengage or letting the Docs check out that arm and shoulder.

 

BMets -

Notables - 

3B Jose Pedroza- 1-4, .293, .893-OPS

 

Cyclones: 

Notables - 

CF Alex Ramirez - 0-4, .236, .682

( I will be dropping Ramiraz from my prospect

watch list this week)

C Kevin Parada - 1-3, 15^th double, 2-RBI, .268, .799-OPS

 

St. Lucie: 

DH Jose Hernandez - 2-4, R, .294, .915-OPS

Notables - 

CF Wilfredo Lara - 1-4, 8^TH double, .245. .773-OPS

SS Jett Williams - 1-4, .233, 770-OPS

 

FCL:. 

DH Yonatan Henriquez - 3-4, R, 2^nd double 

Notables - 

2B Nick Moribito - 1-3, .207, .606-OPS

SS Diego Mosquera - 0-4, R, RBI, .297, .701

RF Willy Fanas - 0-4, .203

CF Simon Juan - 2-4, R, 1^st HR, .250, .698-OPS

Alumni: 

CLICK HERE - 2022 MLB Draft in review: Where are the top 30 picks now?  

11. Kevin Parada, C, New York Mets

Age: 21

Level (Team): High A (Brooklyn)

Season stats: 60 G, .267/.350/.444, 1-for-3 SB, 27 RBI, 14 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 23 BB, 65 K 

Parada hasn’t shown the kind of power he did his final season at Georgia Tech, but he has put a charge into some balls this month as he has become more comfortable in the batters’ box. He has upped his season average thanks to a .308/.357/.526 line in June that includes four homers in 19 games. He entered Tuesday on a seven-game hit streak during which he has gone 12-for-28 with three home runs. Behind the plate, he has caught 19 would-be base-stealers but 97 runners have advanced on steals. Despite the running game chaos (which can also be attributed to his pitchers’ struggles holding runners), Parada is where the Mets should have expected him to be at this point in his career. He is still working on marrying his raw power to his average but that should come as he further establishes himself as a pro.

 

14. Jett Williams, SS, New York Mets

Age: 19

Level (Team): Low A (St. Lucie)

Season stats: 54 G, .233/.421/.355, 19-for-25 SB, 24 RBI, 6 2B, 3 3B, 3 HR, 47 BB, 50 K 

Williams may not have much to show in his batting average but he is displaying a strong approach at the plate, where he’s walking at a 20 percent clip while striking out at a manageable 21.3 percent rate. What’s more, he’s showcasing some speed on the base paths, nabbing nearly 20 bases and proving that he can be a pest. June has proven to be a kinder month to Williams. He’s batting .286 with a double, two triples and two homers and 18 walks against 14 strikeouts this month. 

 

This Day in Mets History (@NYMhistory) 

6/28/2015 Steven Matz pitches 7 2/3 innings and records three hits in his major league debut. He becomes the first pitcher in MLB history and the first Met in franchise history to drive in four runs in his debut.

Dallas Devries - The Mets Runway & Math Reality

 

Billy Eppler addressed the media on Tuesday.  The thing that stood out to me the most were his thoughts on the trade deadline.

"We've got a decent amount of runway before the deadline. We hope that we can change the story. If we can, then we can add. If it doesn't, then we'll just have to create other opportunities and see what else exists out there" – Billy Eppler

Now I’m an optimistic person by nature.  I want the Mets to win just as much as everyone else. However the math simply doesn’t support this comment.  I decided to break down what the Mets need to do to sneak into the last Wild Card position.  

The key is the performance of the last WC spot which is currently the Dodgers. They are on pace to win over 91 games as of Wednesday afternoon. The Mets need a staggering 56 wins over their next 83 games (.675) to exceed this total.  I don’t need to tell you that this is an improbable task.  The red hot Rays who sport the best record in baseball at the moment have only won at a .659 rate.  This would mean winning every single series from now until the end of the year.

3rd WC win % (Dodgers)	0.564
3rd WC 162 game pace	91.368
Mets Wins	36
Remaining games	83
Games need to get to 3WC	56
Winning % of remaining games for WC	0.675
Winning % of top team in MLB (Rays)	0.659

Even the most optimistic fan would have a hard time arguing this roster has this kind of streak in them.

Alternatively you could argue that the top WC spots go on a sustained losing streak.  Let’s look at this possibility.

Marlins	0.575
Giants	0.570
Dodgers	0.564
Phillies	0.526
Brewers	0.519

If one of the Marlins, Giants, Dodgers performs very poorly during the 2nd half and the Phillies & Brewers don’t surpass the .526 win rate they are at now let's redo the math.

3rd WC win % (Dodgers)	0.526
3rd WC 162 game pace	85.212
Mets Wins	36
Remaining games	83
Games need to get to 3WC	50
Winning % of remaining games for WC	0.602

Even in this new contrived & very unlikely scenario where the third Wild Card drops to a .526 winning percentage (85 wins)  the Mets would still need to win at a .600 clip to surpass this.  

This would be their best path into the dance but would basically require at least 3 of the top 5 other contending teams to play terribly in the 2nd half.  You could argue the Phillies (-12) / Brewers (-25) / Marlins(-6) all have negative run differentials and have outplayed their current win rates but the Mets also have a -14 run differential themselves.  This brings the Cubs (+28) and Padres (+26) into the conversation as well.  They have underperformed their differential and a strong run by them is another barrier to the Mets chances.

This brings me back to Eppler's observations and the harsh reality: The Mets simply cannot afford to buy at the deadline, given these low probabilities. Yet, maintaining the status quo isn't an option either.  Unless they pull off an unprecedented winning streak over the next four weeks, their best strategy is to sell.  By doing so, they can maximize the value of the players that won’t feature in their 2024 plans. Furthermore, this strategy also provides an opportunity to give the “baby” Mets ample playing time, allowing them to adapt and prepare for the upcoming year.

Tom Brennan - Keep the Kids; & Someone Else Can Pontificate About Woeful Mets

Your Prospects Are Easier to Find If You Don't Trade Them

In the stumbling Mets' summer of 2021, as Jake deGrom was absent with his latest malady, the Mets went all in at the trade deadline - sort of. Well, partly.

They traded my favorite prospect, Pete Crow Armstrong, and in return got a brief rental of Javy Baez.  Who hit with some power, but was not nearly enough good stuff for a struggling team.  He was always a strikeout machine, was getting older, and wisely was not retained.  

He has sucked for the Detroit Tigers, post-Mets.

Stupid trade.  I want my Crow back.

Petey the Crow is now in AA and is widely considered the best defensive CF in all of the minors, and he can hit well, with power, and run fast.

He is now ranked as baseball's # 14 prospect. (For perspective, Ronny Mauricio is the top Mets prospect at # 39).

By next spring, maybe Crow is top 5.

Stupid trade.

Jarred Kelenic was traded too, another Mets' former first rounder.  

He struggled for a while with Seattle, but he is now with the Mariners in 2023 as just a 23 year old, with a .456 slug % and 9 steals so far in 73 games.

An OK trade, since the Mets got Sir Edwin (Patellar) Diaz, but as the Mets were already taking on $100 million on Cano's remaining contract, that should have precluded the Mets needing to give up a prospect as high quality as Kelenic.

So, calendar page flip flippantly, and it now is close to trade deadline of 2023.  

Monsieur Brennan's Admonition Du Jour?

Just don't trade any of the top ones this year. 

Or next year. Or in the years after that.

If you do, may a large Crow peck you, both painfully and repeatedly.

Keep The Kids.

Speaking of kids…

Christian Scott was brilliant again, and had 7 shutout innings in AA; he has supplanted Vasil and Hamel in my mind as the Mets’ hottest high minors starting pitching commodity. 

In AAA, Mark Vientos has 2 hits and a walk in his “I’m much better than this league, what am I doing here?” reunion tour. 

And  C Nick Meyer (a rising .230 with a .270 June) who has just 1 PB and 1 error in 25 catching games, slammed 2 HRs last night. Maybe they trade Narvaez and call up Meyer next month.

Speaking further of kids…

The Mets have been so abysmal over the last 59 games that heading into today’s action, the team had fallen 17 games back, and 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. As such, I plan henceforth to not write about the major league team until they return to being in the 2023 race.

Steve Cohen was clearly disappointed yesterday. Watch his video.

So…

Not about results…not about trades actual or potential…not about the opposition. Nada.

The Mets don’t deserve my time and attention. So they will not get any.

Stupid organization.

(But wait, they did unexpectedly win last night…so, maybe…)

(But after Wednesday's game, the Mets still have played 10 fewer games at home than on the road this year, which should help them in the last 82 games).

Amazing that in the first 80 games, the Mets have scored 358 runs (4.5 runs per game) despite more-minimal-than-anticipated run generation input (21 RBIs) from Jeff McNeil. 

Of course, they have allowed 4.7, which is way too many RPGs.

But....they’ve 228 allowed in 45 road games, which is 5.1 runs per game.  Which, considering that when you lose on the road, most times, the opponent is not hitting in the 9th inning, it makes that runs allowed per game worse.  

But a much better 4.2 runs per game allowed at home...and in all of those games, the opposing team gets at least 9 innings. 

So, a I’ll pontificate for a moment, rather than someone else, and note that there remains a slight, slender sliver of hope for 2023, given how many home games are left.

Edwin’s demise was the Mets’ demise. Period.

QUITTER…OR REALIST?

Why do long-time Mets fans who are bothered by actual factual results complain?  Some NY Post-presented FACTS:

Simple - Met? In just 6 playoffs in 28 years.

Crosstown? 24 playoff appearances in the last 28 years. That’s 18 more, taking almost all of my 20 fingers and toes to count the differential.

 

Crosstown? At least one playoff series win in 14 of those 24.

Crosstown? 30 straight winning seasons. 

That sums it up. 

You aren’t a “quitter” to recognize those severely lopsided facts. 

You're just honest.

Steve is trying. And spending. 

The players are failing.